WMG / The Legend of Heroes: Trails of Cold Steel

Cold Steel III pre-release theories

Rean will be leading a new year of Class VII

While the rest of the game would involve going across Erebonia to see what's been new with his friends since the end of II, he'd basically be the only senior student in Class VII.

• Jossed. According to the interviews, Cold Steel III will take place one year and 6 months after Cold Steel II. By that time, Rean's already graduated from Thors and is now part of the military.
  • Official word is Rean has graduated and is an instructor at Thors when the third game starts tho. So this may be half-correct, we may be seeing a new Class VII. Just that Rean isn't their senior.
  • He ends up as the homeroom teacher of Class VII.

Chancellor Osborne will end up being the primary Big Bad of the Cold Steel series

He already managed to fake death and steal the Phantasmal Blaze plan away from Ouroboros while declaring war on them. Eventually he'll cross the Moral Event Horizon that even the rest of the Ironbloods would turn their back on him and join Rean.

• It turns out to be a Big Bad Duumvirate with Alisa's dad and Osborne working together. Although the Ironbloods didn't exactly turn their backs on him, some of the members of Ouroboros did end up siding with him. Even Campanella, Shirley, and Vita all thought that the plan went completely off the rails now and that things have gone a bit too far.

Other Divine Knights will awaken

Rean and Crow were the first two Awakeners in their generation. What's to say that other members of Class VII will end up getting their own Knights? In fact, the giant statue you see in the Nord Highlands could end up being Gaius's Divine Knight.

• There aren't enough Divine Knights for all of Class VII. There are supposed to be seven total. Three are already accounted for (Valimar, Ordine, and The Vermilion Apocalypse. A fourth (from the Lance Maiden's castle) has apparently been awakened, but with its current location unknown. That leaves three for the rest of Class VII.
  • I agree with the prediction that the "statue" in the Nord Highlands will end up being Gaius' Divine Knight. As for the one at the Lance Maiden's castle, perhaps it's already unlocked by Arianrhod. But who knows if it'd be passed to Laura over the course of the game? Also, someone will need to take up Crow's Divine Knight, and there's supposedly a ruin near the city that Group B is holding their field studies in Chapter 3- possibly that one will also have a Divine Knight in there, unless Crow got his from there in the first place.
  • They didn't really awaken. They were already woken up. Osborne, Arianrhod, and Rutger (though he says that he's not the Awakener but merely able to pilot it) have one. And then there's Crow's Ordine that shows up as well. And Rean manages to transform Valimar into a newer version with two horns on its head. Plus Cedric is now the awakener of Testa-Rossa. Which makes it 6 out of 7 Divine Knights showing up. And the Black Records of this game hint that the final Divine Knight is yellow in color.

Rean will join Ouroboros at the end of Cold Steel III

Burdened by the darkness of not being able to bring Crow back home? Check. Isn't the biggest fan of Osborne right now? Check. Doesn't have the fire that he used to have after participating in a war that he doesn't even have any stake on whatsoever? Check. Is jealous of Lloyd and his strive to fight for Crossbell's freedom? Check. Considering his new outfit in Cold Steel III and his eyes looking like someone from Ouroboros and he's got a chance of actually joining them, making Rean's story a Protagonist Journey to Villain story.

• Jossed. Instead, Ouroboros joins forces with Osborne, leaving Vita out.

If not this game, then every Trails hero team will come together against Ouroboros

That would be one hell of a Grand Finale where you have Team Estelle, the SSS, Class VII and the Ironbloods teaming together to stop Ouroboros once and for all. And of course there's all sorts of banter material to be had. Especially if Rean gets to talk to Cassius Bright and Arios, who are Divine Blades.

The western half of Erebonia will be explored

All throughout 1 and 2, you're basically going through the eastern side of Erebonia, not to mention you don't get to fight Generals Le Guin and Bardias.

• Confirmed by Word of God. Bryonia Island will be shown in CS III.
• Confirmed in-game where chapter's 1 and 3 are all located at the Western side of Erebonia. Meanwhile, chapter 2 is all about Crossbell and chapters 4 and 5 are at the western side of Heimdallr.

Rean will surpass Viscount Arseid in terms of power

Viscount Arseid handed Rean his ass both without and with his Superpowered Evil Side. Not only does he get to defeat him, but that gives Rean the power to take on McBurn even in his most One-Winged Angel form.

• According to the interview for revealing characters for Cold Steel III, McBurn of all people is looking forward to Rean's progress while claiming that his duel with the Viscount actually left him wanting. And then Arianrhod also wishes to test his mettle.

Just like the previous games, the final dungeon will once again be in the Old Schoolhouse

This time, the Old Schoolhouse finally ends up getting destroyed down to every last atom.

• Jossed. It's at Heimdallr. To be specific, it's at the former Karel Villa now turned Grail of Erebos after Campanella rang the bell from the Stargazer Tower.

The S in S. Arseid...

Stands for Sandlot, as in Lianne Sandlot. Laura would be quite flabberghasted that she's a descendant of one of the Empire's strongest warriors, as well as the Seventh Anguis of Ouroboros.

• If that were the case, I would kind of figure that the family including Laura would already be well aware of the connection, seeing as its part of their name and all.
  • Confirmed. Laura has actually vaguely hinted at this during her discussion with Rean at Celdic in the first game. Most players are expected to think that she meant Victor and the Arseid school, however this is finally clarified in the third game.

The game will take place seven months after CSII.

Going by the arc number theme, Class VII will reunite seven months later for one final adventure.

• Jossed. It takes place one year and six months after CS II

Beryl is actually another victim of the D∴G Cult.

Those golden eyes might be a hint or something.

• Jossed; she doesn't show up.

Osborne's a "mixed" man and is the reason why he managed to survive his assassination.

Anytime Osborne and Rean meet, Rean's scars always ache. Considering that those scars also ached when Rean meets McBurn and it's clear that there's something about Osborne that's at least abnormal.

• Confirmed

There will be a minigame where you can race with Rean's orbal bike versus The SSS car.

C'mon, it's bound to happen sooner or later.

• Jossed. Lloyd is on the run as he is labeled as a terrorist.

Claire will be killed off because of the passing of her Seiyuu Miyu Matsuki.

• They could always just hire another seiyuu for the job. It's not that strange for Japan to have another seiyuu to replace one who has been dead.
• Jossed. Latest trailer confirms that she's going to appear with a new seiyuu. Whether or not she survives until the end is another story though.
• Jossed; she survives to the end of the story.

Osborne will make another attempt to conquer Liberl

Cassius may have won the Hundred Days War, but his victory depended on two factors. First, that Liberl had Zemuria's only functional air force at the time, and second, that Osborne's political faction didn't have the resolve to continue the war once it was clear it wouldn't be the easy victory they thought it would be. In the decade since, Erebonia has developed its own air force, has land based weapons that can attack airships in Valimar and the Panzer Soldats, and Osborne has utterly crushed his political opponents. If Osborne makes another go at it, Cassius simply doesn't have enough army to clever his way out of defeat this time. Especially since everyone knows that if Erebonia had had the political will necessary at the time, they had enough numbers to brute force a victory the first time around.

• The possibility still might exist but right now, he's targeting a much bigger country: Calvard.

Osborne will start his own Reign of Terror in the Third Game

While he might have won, the last Imperial Chronicle states there are still rebels in Lamarre and Olivert isn't done trying to stop him. So he'll start a brutal crackdown to stage the capture and assassinations of his remaining naysayers and critics. Jusis and Angelica would be in danger of being close by to having their respective fathers killed off on the chance that they MIGHT start more trouble.

• Given what Duke Albarea did over the course of the second game (and the kidnapping/attempted blackmail stunt he pulled in the first), the amazing thing was that he hadn't already been executed by the game's epilogue.
• Confirmed except said reign of terror is a bit literal now in the sense that Osborne managed to unite the citizens by Rean killing off the divine beast that manages to make the flowers from Zero grow in multiple places, allowing the citizens to go on a rampage, and then uniting to go against Calvard.

Arianrhod is a time-displaced Lianne Sandlot

She actually didn't die from mysterious circumstances, but was somehow sent 250 years into the future for reasons unknown, but will be revealed in Cold Steel III.

• Jossed. She was really alive for a long time.

Arianrhod is an Awakener

There used to be a Divine Knight in Lohengrin Castle, but somebody Awakened it, and now even the Hexen Clan doesn't know who did it or where it went. The last known Awakening of a Divine Knight before CS 2 was during the War of the Lions, after which history somehow forgot about the giant robots involved in the war. During said war, Arianrhod, then known as Lianne Sandlot, was both alive, and living in Lohengrin Castle. She would have had ample opportunity to Awaken the Divine Knight sleeping on her own property, and when the world forgot that Driechels had a Divine Knight, it forgot she had one as well. Arianrhod possessing said Divine Knight when she then joined Ouroboros played a contributing factor in why their tech base is so much higher than the rest of the world's: they've been reverse engineering her Divine Knight for years, possibly before the Orbal Revolution even began.

• The Black Records only mention three Divine Knights going into play in the War of the Lions, all of which were piloted by Princes of the Erebonian royal family. But then, since the Black Records stop at the end of the war and don't mention when/how Lianne disappeared, it's possible she Awakened the knight under Lohengrin castle later.
  • From the 15-second ad of Cold Steel III, there seems to be what looks like a Divine Knight behind Arianrhod.◊
  • Confirmed, though the one on the picture isn't her Divine Knight but rather the Aion Type Alpha II. She does show hers after defeating the boss though.

Gaius is or will be deeply related to Gralsritter

Moving a speculation from someone in GameFaqs. The wandering priest coming to Nord during his Sunday School days and trained him is implied to be Father Barkhorn the Wandering Lion, a member of Gralsritter currently occupying 8th seat of Dominion. This situation feels similar to the reason how Elie from The Legend of Heroes: Trails from Zero and Trails to Azure knows about Gralsritter^note This has something to do with Ein Selnate, the 1st seat of Dominion. Not to mention there's this image◊...

• Confirmed. Gaius is now officially the 8th Dominion as of Cold Steel III after Barkhorn transfers his stigma to him.

Osborne will attempt the Phantasmal Blaze plan in III

So far, in two games, all we've really learned about said plan is the name. It's time to reveal what the plan really is, and whether Ouroboros can manage to extract some kind of victory from what Osborne pulled on them.

• Well, as of the end of Cold Steel III, it looks like he has almost succeeded...

Olivert is going to make a play for the throne

Before the war, Osborne held the Emperor's absolute trust and controlled roughly 70% of the Imperial Army's senior officers, with most of the remainder being apolitical types. The only force in Erebonia capable of standing up to him was the Great Houses. Now that the war is over, the Great Houses and their Provincial Armies have been broken or absorbed into Imperial Army, and the Chancellor almost certainly made a point of replacing any fallen commanders with people loyal to him whenever possible. There are no factions left in the Empire capable of pressuring the Emperor to replace Osborne left, and since there's no evidence that the Emperor's faith in his Chancellor has wavered (and the heir presumptive looks up to him as well), the only practical way for Olivert to get the Emperor to remove Osborne from power is to become Emperor. While he might prefer to do it via intrigue rather than insurrection if possible, it's the only way to stop the war hawks from conquering any more of the neighboring countries.

And while people might object on the grounds that Olivert is an illegitimate heir born to a common-born mistress, and thus not in the line of succession, the Black Records revealed something interesting about Erebonia's history: So was Emperor Dreichels, but after he restored peace to Erebonia, they gave him the throne anyway. And playing a key role in stopping round two of the War of the Lions (and being on very good terms with many of the other heroes of the war, of which several dislike the Chancellor for reasons of their own) could grant him a lot of political capital to play with.

• Jossed. The Courageous is blown up at the climax of the story and he was in it alongside Toval and Victor.

Rosine is actually Rose from Red Moon Rose who disguised herself.

It's the most ridiculous theory ever yes.

• So far unlikely. Rosine has her own character profile, although this doesn't clarify anything yet *glances at Rixia and Yin*.
• Didn’t happen, as Roselia appeared in the game and she’s not Rosine.

Rean's other style in this game will be using Crow's dual handguns.

Since it's known that there are going to be at least two different combat styles in the game (as shown by Juna with her tonfa mode and her gun mode), Rean will be using his katana and Crow's dual guns, inadvertently making Rean Falcom's Dante.

• This guy seems to have that covered though: https://knight-of-erebonia.tumblr.com/image/163982660139

Rean will face yet another betrayal from his students.

Juna is a native of Crossbell and the trailer confirms with her line of 'Give us back our Crossbell!" that she's not happy about it being annexed and will no doubt turn on him if it gives a chance of her home regaining independence. Ash already shows disrespect for him and apparently enrolled at the recommendation of Randy Orlando, a possible resistance plant. Musse, while flirting with him, is a member of a Noble family, which Osborne (who Rean is believed to serve and is connected to) holds in disdain and plans to abolish, and probably has ulterior motives. Kurt wasn't happy about how Osborne dismissed his family from their traditional duty and not knowing his full story may assume the worst. And that's not even counting how some of them would react to him being Osborne's son...

• It's been said that the first half of the game will have Rean bonding with his students, only for some event to occur that will throw all of it down the toilet.
  • Jossed. Try giving in to his Superpowered Evil Side who plunges the world in darkness after slicing the corrupted Divine Beast turtle with said sword being empowered by a dead Millium.

Cold Steel III will have a secondary protagonist, with Juna as the most likely candidate.

The boss fight with Campanella not featuring Rean hints that the game might have dual protagonists. As Juna is present for this fight, and she seems to be the most pushed of the new characters, there's a fair chance that the story will focus on her when it's not following Rean.

• Jossed. Rean's still the primary through and through.
  • Questioning Rean's status as primary protagonist is not what the WMG is theorizing. It's putting forth the possibility of whether or not one of his new students will serve as secondary protagonists whenever Rean is separated from them or the story's focus moves away from them.
    • Oh, well then it's confirmed that it's both Juna and Kurt share it, leaning more on Kurt and his plot with Cedric.

Osborne is motivated by a dead lover/wife and the whole plan is to bring her back like Gendo Ikari.

There's alot of Evangelion parallels already: The protagonist (Rean) pilots a machine made from an ancient primordial entity (Valimar) and ends up under the thumb of his Magnificent Bastard father who had abandoned him at a young age(Osborne)and has a strong fixation on a certain silver-haired, red-eyed adversary(Crow).

Said father comes into conflict with a shady, influential conspiracy organization (Ouroboros) he was formerly connected to and hijacks their plan. When Vita described the plan, she mentioned it was to 'guide the souls of all', which got me thinking of Instrumentality.

For extra fun, Altina fits the same role of emotionless, artificially created girl as Rei. Lechter plays a similar role to Kaji as the entertaining guy with ambiguous allegiance. And even though she's on opposite sides with them, Sara acts alot like Misato.

Considering we have no mention or hints of Rean's biological mother, and that there apparently aren't any records of Osborne ever being married or having a lover, let alone a child, chances are good she may play some part in his motivation.

• It's at least confirmed that Osborne's out for revenge against the people responsible for Hamel, his wife's death, and Rean who turns out to have Osborne's heart.

Musse is actually a Red Herring to catch a Trails fan off-guard and that she literally just has a crush on Rean

Considering fans already have alarms ringing on their head when Musse was described as someone who wants to flirt with Rean and is a student at St. Atraia, people believe there's more to her than that. Falcom might just troll players in that she's literally just a student of Rean.

• She's actually playing the role like Emma in Cold Steel I; barely there in the spotlight yet enough for fans to catch on that she's more important than what she really is. Ash meanwhile is far more important in Cold Steel III than what was initially assumed.

The reason why Rean's headpats are so effective on women is because he's a half-vampire, making Osborne a full one.

In Red Moon Rose, vampires have the power to control one's minds and in the trailer for Cold Steel III, at least Claire and Millium have eyes that have symbols, something they normally don't have which implies that Osborne must be controlling them. Rean is inadvertently unleashing his vampire powers on women to have the hots for him from his head patting which is why Elise is a stuttering mess every time her brother head pats her and because she's been with him the longest, she's been affected a lot more than the other girls.

• Jossed. Osborne's "mixed" just like McBurn and Osborne transplants his heart to Rean's to prevent his death.

List of characters that is predicted to bite the dust in Cold Steel III.

• Sharon Kruger. There are talks about Sharon being "far too deep in darkness to defect from Ouroboros like Joshua or Renne." Coupled with her loyalty to Reinford family, there probably will be times when she will prioritize Alisa or Irina's safety more than succession of Ouroboros' plan and will die from it. Jossed. Instead, she defects from the Reinfords and resumes her role as part of Ouroboros. She does however briefly hesitate and worry for Alisa despite fighting against her.
• Victor S. Arseid. This may sound a little bit cruel, but Laura has to inherit the badass Ancestral Weapon as Tragic Keepsake for maximum coolness so what better way for it than killing her father off for an added dramatic value? With the Courageous blown up, he might be confirmed but we'll have to wait for Cold Steel IV to make sure.
• Mueller Vander. Him being underpromoted in favor of his little half-brother may mean this. Jossed; he doesn't even show up in the game. It's Olivert who might actually be offed because he was also on-board when the Courageous blew up.
• It’s probably safe to say for all of the guesses out there almost nobody predicted Millium to be the one that actually happened.

The statue at Nord is actually one of the two giants from the Black Records.

And Ouroboros wants to awaken both giants.

• Confirmed in a way. Ouroboros wants to awaken the giants since they are actually the two lost Sept-Terrions, but what's left in Nord (and Bryonia Island) is just an empty shell; the real power merged and then were separated into what now called Seven Divine Knights.

Cold Steel IV Pre-Release Theories

Rean will perform a heroic sacrifice and dies at the end of the game

Looking at what has transpired to date and applying the patterns found on other RPGs with similar storylines, this appears inevitable. Osborne's a divergent being who had his heart transplanted into Rean, making him one as well. As long as Rean's alive, Osborne will be alive. Rean will probably realize that he has to die at some point of the story, and somehow either coax his friends to kill him, or take his own life, in order to take Osborne down.

• Considering Four Is Death is very prominent in Japan, this actually holds a lot of water. Let's actually up the ante and include the 4th Armored Division where Craig also dies.

• Semi-confirmed. Rean, Crow, and Millium sacrifice their lives in the bad ending. Averted in the golden ending where they all live.

Rean will grab one of Crow's guns loaded with the church's new and improved "salt bullet" and they'll shoot at Osborne or Alberich, Dante and Vergil style.

Oh and they'll both flip a 50 mira coin and say "Jackpot".

• Jossed.

There is more to George than only his betrayal.

This is probably mostly wishful thinking, but there are some details about his whole betrayal that are rather weird. First of all, when Rean and his students visit Crow's grave, they find Angelica's accessory on the floor. If George shot Angelica and tried to clean the area, why would they let the accessory there? So, they probably didn't clean up anything. But if they didn't clean anything, then why is the area without any hint of blood? If George really shot Angelica to kill her, then Rean would see something, or at least a small hint of blood in the place.

The other detail is about Crow's memories. If they needed only his memories of his abilities, then why would they seal the ones about his previous life instead of erasing them completely? Due to the fact that they can make homunculus from people who died, it's rather doubtful they lack the technology to erase memories. So, why did they only sealed his memories? It's a great risk for Nebula if he recovers them, and it shows as soon as he gets them back - he stops fighting for their side and tries to help Rean instead. With this in mind and looking at how George interacted with Azure Siegfried after Class VII had their reunion on chapter 4 (he looked sad, maybe disappointed that Siegfried was not feeling anything and almost called him Crow instead) it's possible that George was the one who let Crow stay with his memories of his previous life sealed but safe instead of destroying them.

• Confirmed. He never kills anyone and even gave the crew of Courageous a chance to live.

Valimar, along with the other Divine Knights, will disappear by the end of the Erebonia arc.

We already know from the Crossbell Archives that Ouroboros will complete the Phantasmal Blaze Plan and move on to the next step of Orpheus. This means they will get their hands at the two Sept-Terrions from Erebonia, who were revealed to be the union of the seven Divine Knights. Either Valimar, Ordine and the others will disappear or lose the power that is inside of them.

• Confirmed.

Cedric got the curse of Erebonia when he was inside of Testa-Rossa in Cold Steel 2.

This was what made him change his behavior and personality before Cold Steel 3.

• Confirmed. He was one of Ishmelga's slaves.

Not everyone will die in Courageus' explosion.

Face it, it's very hard to rescue the Courageous crew. As for three important named characters, it's hard to imagine Falcom is willing to kill Olivert, one of the most famous characters in this franchise in an anticlimactic way like that so at least he will survive. Plus, the reveal will be full of sweet irony as Osborne gets the taste of his own medicine when Olivert swoops in, find a way to turn everyone in Erebonia against him, and claim victory, if it truly happens.

• On another note, it's very possible that Victor really died. The guy had too many death flags already. However, he probably sacrificed himself to save Toval and Olivert instead.
  • Falcom allowed Famitsu to publish a picture of what appears to be Olivert's grave. Either they're trolling the readers and Olivert fanboys, or Olivert's not going to be the one who survives, if anyone survives at all.

• Confirmed. All of them survived, scarred. Olivier lost an eye and Victor lost an arm and was made a slave of Ishmelga, but survived nonetheless.
  • What about Toval tho?
    • He survived as well.

There will be another Divertissment-like chapter, but with protagonists of future Calvard Arc.

This will be a relatively interesting way to introduce them minus Verne Company's combat orbment technology. One of the possible scenario if this happens Calvard wanting to know what happens in Erebonia and whether it will impact the republic in the future.

• Jossed

Gaius will have his own Merkabah next game.

And it will be the way Rean and the other characters will be able to travel around Erebonia, just like Lloyd in the last chapter of Ao.

• Confirmed.

In relation to above, Scarlet will go back to the Gralsritter and become Gaius' squire.

She is still alive right?

• She is indeed alive, we can hear about her in Crow's bonding events, but she is not Gaius' squire. She is Wazy's

Crow will be a permanent party member.

Because it's about time. And his Combination Attack with Rean can't be useful for only one battle.

• Looks like their Combination Attack is also used in a cutscene against one of the Aion Betas so it's confirmed he's with you. Though when does he join is a different story.

• Confirmed. He joins in the Intermission and stays in the party until the very end

While we are here, Crow will survive the end of the saga.

They wouldn't repeat what was already done to Loewe, would they?

• Confirmed in the golden ending, where the Divine Knights, with the help of Vita and Rose, sacrifice themselves to revive Crow permanently as a human and make Millium's existence stable. Jossed in the bad ending, where he and Millium die together with Rean to defeat Ishmelga.

Lechter will betray Osborne

He, along with Claire and Millium, didn't want to fight against Class VII in the last dungeon of the third game. This, along with the facts that he became friends with Rean for real (even using his first name instead of his surname or title) and that we can see him becoming more and more uncomfortable with what Osborne is doing in the third game, means that he will change sides in the future. Besides, unlike Claire and Rufus, he doesn't have strong emotional attachments to Osborne himself and is working for him only as atonement for his father's actions. Surely there is a line between atonement and helping a man that is arguably almost doing something equal or worse than Hamel, right?

• Let's not also forget that he is also quite attached to Millium and Altina (he wouldn't be technically spoiling Millium if he wasn't, right? The first game's cutscenes revealed that he's a lot like a father to Millium, often getting her stuff when he's traveling). After what Cedric did to Altina and Millium's Heroic Sacrifice, something inside him would probably hurt enough for him to start doubting if he should be on Osborne's side.
• Star Door 8 from the third Sky game had Lechter say to Osborne's face that he might betray him, only for Osborne to respond by telling Lechter he is expecting that. If that doesn't count as foreshadowing, nothing does.

• Jossed; he doesn't betray Osborne.

Bleublanc will be the one who will rescue Olivert, Toval, and Victor aboard the exploding Courageous.

There's no way Bleublanc will just let his worthy rival die in such an undignified and ugly fashion. Considering he's been absent in Cold Steel III, it might be his time to shine.

• Falcom just allowed Famitsu to publish a still with what appears to be Olivert's grave. While they could just be trolling, this entry is starting to look like it is going to be jossed unless Blaublanc plants a fake body during the Rescue (which kinda counts towards trolling the player).

• He did show up to check out the Courageous and investigated it but ultimately, George was the one who put a fail safe at the bridge for the crew to survive so the WMG is Jossed.

Randy will bring out Berserga and become a playable character in The Last Saga.

Considering his large presence in Cold Steel III yet only playable for one fight, yeah he needs to be playable again if only to see his Berserga S-Craft again.

• Confirmed according to screenshots.

Predictions of "new" playable characters and their element-restricted orbment slots.

Because it's more fun this way, probably.

• Josette Capua. She has appeared onscreen several times in Cold Steel III so why not make her playable as well? Element: Earth and Space.
  • Jossed. She isn't playable.
• Scherazard Harvey. She's been confirmed to be in Erebonia, in Heimdallr no less. It will be a waste to not make her playable or at least appear at this point. Element: Wind and Mirage.
  • Jossed as she's not playable.
• "Randy" Orlando for reason above. Element: Fire and Water.
  • Confirmed.
• Łazy Hemisphere. Rosine mentioned calling him, so why not? Element: Space.
  • Jossed as he doesn't even appear except for a cameo.
• Renne Hayworth/Bright: She is already confirmed to be in the fourth game, we just need confirmation of being playable.
  • Confirmed
• Elie Macdowell: Same as Renne. She is already confirmed to be in the fourth game, we just need confirmation of being playable. Element: Wind.
  • Confirmed
• Noel Seeker. With Łazy mentioned and Elie showing up in the preview pictures, she is the only SSS member left to join the conflict. Element: Earth.
  • Jossed; she only appears as a cameo.

Garcia will come back again in The Last Saga.

Maybe to see his old boss again, or another prison break out and this time he joins a lot longer than in Ao.

• Since Lloyd and all the SSS allies are all being treated like terrorists now, this is the best chance they have of getting help from Garcia, since the rules and laws are not in their favor in those circustances.

• Jossed. He doesn't even show up at all.

Barkhorn is actually alive and siding himself with Ouroboros.

Based on this theory. What actually supports this theory despite after what said during Sen III finale's Info Dump is that the supplementary material released after the game's release does not confirm Barkhorn's death. There's still a possibility that he faked his death and the whole "transferring stigma to Gaius" is actually Weissmann's much-improved fake stigma which can actually fool the church (or stigma is really transferrable to those with potential to awaken one and Barkhorn joins Ouroboros with no Stigma).

• Jossed. The game doesn't confirm if Barkhorn is really dead or not.
  • As of the release of The Legend of Heroes: Trails through Daybreak, the part where he is alive is confirmed, as he had taken up a new identity and is hiding out in the Calvard Republic. However it was not mentioned if he joined Ouroboros.

Rean won't be in the lead role at the beginning of the fourth game.

Judging by the new promo image in the falcom website, Rean was captured by Osborne while in his ogre state. It's highly possible that we are going to have a new lead character in the first half until Rean can be rescued, or at least escape from that situation. So, for any bets until we have more information:

• Crow, trying to pay back all of the "interest" to his friends. Many fans believe he is a strong candidate for this position;
• Juna, as part of the sub-plot of liberating Crossbell. Like Crow up there, she is also a strong candidate, along with Kurt;
  • Confirmed for Juna as she ends up being the Decoy Protagonist for all of Act 1 in Cold Steel IV.
• Altina, since she has a connection with Millium and the sacred beasts;
  • Also confirmed. Like Juna, she's part of the Decoy Protagonist clique with Kurt.
• Lloyd, for the same reason as Juna;
• In a twist, it can be Osborne, or a flashback where we control him. Kondo said the fourth game will open with a surprising group of playable characters, after all;
• Someone else from Class VII old or new;
• Confirmed. Rean only joins in Act 2. Act 1 is mostly held up by a combination of New Class VII sans Musse and Ash, and Old Class VII.

Taking the previous idea: The new game will be based on routes.

We will have routes between many characters: Crow, Juna, Lloyd, maybe even Ouroboros and the Ironbloods themselves. All the routes will show the perspectives of different characters, until they all arrive at the same destination and we take control of Rean as the lead character again.

• Jossed. Kondo said the story of the game will be completely linear
  • However, in a twist, it turns out that the game has a bad ending and a golden ending. There is no route, and you do get the bad ending on the first playthrough, with the true ending being unlocked once the player ends up watching the bad ending and loads the game again (although the player does have the option of tackling the bonus dungeon on first playtrough, but you'll still need to watch the bad ending nonetheless). Once the player loads the game, they will be guided towards a secret dungeon if they haven't already done it, where Rean gets the protection from the Holy Beast of the Earth, unlocking the True Ending of the game. So, in a way, both endings are canon with the True Ending being the final word, but we don't have confirmation of what stopped the bad ending yet in the story..
  • As of Trails of Reverie, the golden ending is confirmed to be indeed the canon ending.

The reason why Renne is in Erebonia.

We know from the third game that Cassius' family is forbidden of trespassing Erebonia's borders, most likely because of Osborne's orders, and this was the reason why Agate and Tita are there instead of Estelle and Joshua. So why is Renne there if she was adopted by the Bright family? The reason might be because she is using her connection to the Hayworth family.

• But that order was null and void by IV tho, given that Estelle and Joshua were in one of the playable teams during the Salt Pale operation in the final chapter. And of course everyone attended Olivert and Schera's wedding.
• Jossed. While Renne does meet up with her real family, ultimately she sticks with the Brights and doesn't use her real surname for any situation.

In relation to above, she is going to be the one to talk to Sharon.

Both Renne and Joshua are always being compared to Sharon, who didn't have enough courage to leave Ouroboros yet like them. Since Renne is in the fourth game, she will be the one to try and convince Sharon to leave the organization and look for a better life, with Alisa's family or otherwise.

• Jossed. Alisa and Irina deal with her.

Another Member of the original Class VII will die before the game ends

Rean's been singled out as the most likely candidate, but any one of the original Class VII being killed off could be a potential Act II ending twist.

• Let's up the ante and make it a play mechanic- the person with the highest affection points towards Rean will die with Rean. Alternatively, tying into the "Rean's heroic sacrifice" WMG I put forward, the person with the highest affection points would die so that Rean wouldn't have to.
  • While we can't joss the idea, they would have to cut off branches when the next arc comes out and canonically reveal who it would be.
  • Confirmed in the bad ending where Rean, Crow, and Millium as a sword all die at the end of the game. Jossed in the Golden ending where no Class VII member dies except for Valimar and the five other knights who disappear.
    • Now the million dollar question: which ending will be canon and which will get discarded? We'll find out when the Calvard games come out.
    • Both endings are canon gameplay-wise, because the player needs to watch the first one, even if they go through the secret sidequest before the last dungeon. The last word is for the True Ending where everyone is alive and we can see the Grandmaster by the end, with the words "Sen no Kiseki is completely finished" appearing only in said second ending, along with the words of goodbye that have for every arc ending. You can also only go for New Game Plus after watching the second ending and the scene with the Grandmaster. This probably will end up like what happened with the SSS in Ao, with the route of their deaths being an alternative timeline.
    • Confirmed by Kondo himself in the most recent spoiler interview. The actual ending is the one with everyone alive, with the members of Class VII returning to their original duties (with the exception of Crow, that has a question mark for his life goals). So, yes, the ending with Rean, Crow and Millium dying might be probably recognized as an alternative timeline in the future.
    • Guess it's confirmed for good in Trails of Reverie, where the golden ending is the canon one.

Calvard is going to try to invade Erebonia at the end of the game.

Erebonia would presumably would be in chaos after the curse was released and Osborne and his supporters that refused to repent are presumably kicked out of power. The damage because of the fighting, the curse and needing to reform the government, rebuild and give back many of the areas their independence would have Erebonia be weaker than it was in the past, making it a easier target. As one of its biggest rivals and being almost invaded by them which I doubt that they would allow to be swept aside that easily, Calvard might want to give Erebonia a taste of its own medicine and attack it.

• Jossed. Calvard ends up helping the alliance against Osborne, but is not an invasion per se.

Cassius Bright will make an appearance in The Last Saga.

This one is very much out there compared to the others, considering that the third game mentions that the Brights are forbidden to trespass Erebonia's borders, but then again, if there's one person who's shown to be capable of coming out on top against the odds, it's definitely Cassius. Plus, considering some of the series' biggest powerhouses from previous games are already going to be playing a big part in this game, why not bring back the biggest powerhouse of them all for this one? Bonus points if he and Rean end up interacting, given their connection through the Eight Leaves One Blade School.

• Confirmed, and the entire Bright family is showing up too.

Cedric will become an Enforcer of Ouroboros by the end of the game as build up to the Calvard games.

Given that he's an Awakener and the first in line for the throne to the Erebonian empire, he's too valuable an asset for the society to ignore. Also, preview screenshots of IV show him fighting alongside Shirley, a current Enforcer of Ouroboros, implying he could become strong enough to fight alongside her and other Enforcers. With the next games taking place in Calvard, it seems thematically appropriate to make Cedric an antagonist in those games due to tensions between Calvard and Erebonia. While Enforcers must join of their own will, and it's implied Cedric's mind is affected by Testa Rossa, it has been shown that the Society has very loose definitions for what constitutes free will due to Joshua and Weissman. Despite being brainwashed by Weissman, Joshua was allowed to become an Enforcer, and no one from Ouroboros took issue with Weissman's actions or tried to stop him. With that in mind, they probably wouldn't care if Cedric was going insane from Testa Rossa's power, and would be glad to have the Erebonian Crown Prince on their side, especially if Eugent ends up dying from the assassination attempt at the end of III, as it would make Cedric the Emperor of Erebonia, which might also allude to his Enforcer number, as no Enforcer has been shown to hold the number IV.

• Confirmed! Not all the details, but he does join Ouroboros by the end. Also, the First Anguis made sure that the Anguis themselves will not meddle in his development as they clearly don't want another Weissman-Joshua incident despite the WMG put forward.

Not all the Awakeners will die/fade away by the end.

Kondo said in a recent interview that each Awakener will have a different ending, so there is that.

• Confirmed. Rean stays alive, Crow is alive, Rufus is in jail, and Cedric joins Ouroboros.

Juna's dream from the Dengeki stream is from the timeline where KeA didn't rewrite the timeline.

Why would she be classmates with Cedric, Aida, and Fritz? And there's no way Ash would be allowed anywhere near royalty after assassinating the emperor plus the last time we see Ash is aboard the Pantagruel. Plus Altina isn't traumatized too much by Cedric's presence where he nearly chokes her to death and Kurt doesn't have any harsh feelings towards Cedric. And finally, all of them are wearing the main branch uniform instead of the Thors II branch uniform.

• Jossed.

Claire will die in the fourth game.

This is taking into consideration the previous theory of Lechter betraying Osborne and the huge amount of death flags that she got in the third game, narrative-wise. We could see Lechter and Claire being hesitant towards Osborne's plans, and Millium dying clearly took them by surprise, judging by their shocked faces. However, Claire has strong emotional attachments to Osborne, stronger than her friendship with Rean and her relationship with her "brother", from the looks of it. However, what Osborne is doing is still crossing a line, so she will probably try to stop him when things get too out of control, maybe by the end of the game, and die in the process. That, or save Rean or someone else that she is attached to.

• Jossed. She survives at the end of the story.

Joshua will be the one that will help save Rean from his captured state at the start of the game.

Joshua's profile said he was asked by the Bracer Guild to employ "certain means" if he sees that Rean is a threat. However, the main code of the Bracer Guild is clear when dealing with possible enemies. And he said himself in SC that he is not good at direct combat, only stealth missions. Even with some years of training, he is probably not ready to take Rean's ogre form, especially out of control, alone. The conclusion here is that Joshua probably has other means of snapping Rean out of it, and the result will be Rean with white hair and black clothes, and probably leading to the picture of him giving his thanks to Cassius.

• Jossed. When they finally meet, Rean's already sane.

The identity of the Awakener for the Gold Divine Knight

Given our odds even with Crow's supposed return, it's still 2v4 as they are pitted against Osborne, Cedric, Arianrhod and Rutger all at once. I doubt the power gap can be filled with the members of new Class VII. Let's hope that the last Divine Knight is piloted by one of the good guys at this point. Let's start guessing.

• Olivert. Pretty much the only non-Ass Pull way he could had survived the explosion of the Courageous while using the cockpit space to squeeze Victor and Toval in as Rean demonstrated in Alisa's final bonding event during the second game. Not to mention, the reason he didn't reveal it earlier was because he was doing the Awakener trials after CS2 to match Osborne in case the latter also had a Divine Knight, which was right on the mira as shown later on and he was saving it as an ace in the hole during the events of CS3. He was most likely planning on revealing it when Osborne unveiled his, but he had to change plans when his ship suddenly exploded.
• But Kondo said in an interview that we shouldn't pay attention to the Awakener's hair color (so, a hint saying it's not golden). This Troper's bet is for Renne, who already has experience with piloting. Plus, someone made a map with the possible localization of the Golden Awakener and they are near Crossbell. Renne's original family is from Crossbell.
• This is a very interesting theory, pointing out to Ash as the Golden Awakener.
• It could also be a Red Herring and that Kondo is throwing those statements out just to throw off the fans. Not the first time he's done that.
• Rufus said he knew (or had an idea about) who is the last Awakener, so it can be anyone from Erebonia (Crossbell included). Let's keep in mind the Awakener needs a witch or a gnome to guide them. Rean had Emma (and Celine), Crow had Vita, Lianne had Roselia. Rutger and Osborne most likely had Alberich's help. Same for Cedric, but this last case is probably an exception since he started piloting it by force.
• Big chances of it being Ash. In recent scans, he was alongside Rean at the result of a possible fight against Rutger. While that doesn't say too much, we have in the same place/scene, back in the the long PV, the Golden Awakener getting inside of the Knight. In other scan, we have Juna, Kurt and Musse going against the Golden Knight. Ash can pilot a Soldat as well, so why isn't he there? Unless Falcom is misleading everyone on purpose, chances are that Ash is the Golden Awakener.
  • All of those theories are officially Jossed. Rufus is the Golden Awakener. Rather, he just obtained it while he was being the governor-general of Crossbell. However, this also meant that the person who theorised that the Awakener would be Renne is right in the sense that the last Divine Knight is in Crossbell, just that the Awakener would not be her.

Miscellaneous

The arc after Cold Steel will take place in Calvard

It's the last major nation in the region that hasn't been covered.

• So far confirmed. Word of God stated that the next arc will be in Calvard.
• Fully confirmed with the launch of The Legend of Heroes: Trails through Daybreak.

If Overwatch existed in Erebonia...

Principal Vandyck would definitely be Reinhart and Nurse Beatrix would be Ana (both being Cool Old Lady snipers and medics)

The Cold Steel series will be featured in a Super Robot Wars game.

It will also have allow you to have a secret character by rescuing Crow and Ordine.

• Actually quite possible, given that Falcom just licensed out the Cold Steel characters and their Divine Knights to a freemium mobile Humongous Mecha Turn-based Strategy game called WarLocks Z for a limited-time event^note They claim it's Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan only, but it actually also covers most of South-East Asia. If they'd willingly license out the franchise to something as lowly as a freemium game, surely they'd agree without batting an eye if reps from Bandai Namco Entertainment were to show up at their HQ one day with a suitcase full of cash and a contract for them to sign.

Rean is actually Falcom's attempt at deconstructing a Born Winner harem protagonist making him a This Loser Is You to fans who want to feel how it's like to be a special man who doesn't want any of it.

Considering that for all of his powers and Divine Knight, he ends up being miserable in that his powers making him think that he's a pariah and that he unintentionally dooms Erebonia in darkness with red plemora flowers blooming all over the place and him being chosen as an Awakener ends up with him participating in wars all over the place which is taking a heavy toll on him and his ogre power. Then there's the harem aspect where he's a bonafide Chick Magnet, except the only person he's actively pursuing circa Cold Steel II and beyond is Crow. All the bonding events end up being optional while Crow is the only one he ever pursues presented in-game.

Osborne is a bad guy because by giving transplanting his heart to Rean, he also figuratively loss his heart a la Kingdom Hearts, leaving without any real morals or actual real emotions and attachments because he doesn't have a heart to feel emotions and understand them.

• Jossed. He loves his son Rean.

The reason why Rean is having so much bad luck when it comes to his endings is because of the rewrite in the timeline when KeA saved the SSS in the original Zero timeline.

And that someone has to pay the consequences for the SSS who should have died to live on.

• Jossed. His bad luck stems from the fact that his biological father happened to be the reincarnation of a badass awakener and royalty and had made a pact with the curse to spare his life.

The Black Records were written by someone from the pre-KeA rewrite timeline.

Word of God has stated that the Black Records were not written from Rean's timeline.

• Jossed. Ishmelga's the author of the Black Records.

Chairman Irina knew Black Alberich had faked his death, hence why she became cold like she currently is

My theory is that she is believed Black Alberich (or whatever alias he has been using while being married to Irina) really was dead and was deeply in grief. However shortly after she hired Sharon, perhaps because she witnessed Black Alberich's so-called "death" at Sharon's hands or by other coincidence, and at some point after Sharon let's it slip that it was all a ruse. So she did what anyone put through this would do: become cold and calculative, secretly fearing that if she let her guard down, she'll be taken advantage of again.

• Jossed. She joined his side in Cold Steel IV to discover what truly happened to him, so she didn't know what happened for real.

The protagonist of the next arc will be someone from the other world introduced in Cold Steel IV

The title says all. The plot went through a huge twist with the fourth entry in the Erebonia saga. It wouldn't be a surprise to have a protagonist from the other world, maybe amnesiac like Mcburn, or at least someone in the main party being from there.

• Jossed. The protagonist for the next arc is a new character.

The Grandmaster of Ouroboros is the one responsible for all the time contradictions that happened in the prologues of Cold Steel I and Cold Steel III

This troper will take this from a theory people saw after the True Ending of Cold Steel IV. It was implied the Grandmaster was the one responsible for the happy ending, without Rean, Crow or Millium dying, because of the same voice guiding the party to the hidden dungeon. If this ends up being true, it means the Grandmaster has somehow powers to rewind time. She might be the one responsible for some things, like the characters present, being contradictory in those prologues. After rewinding time to avoid death or the failure of her plans, some things naturally changed in the timeline.

There is a very good reason why nobody can leave Zemuria.

The Great Collapse or some other cataclysm turned the rest of the world into either a Death World or Eldritch Location. People are prevented from leaving Zemuria for their own protection. However, the protective barrier around Zemuria is starting to weaken, which is the true nature of the "Nothingness of All" the Grandmaster was referring to.

The Grandmaster is actually Aidios

The continent of Zemuria is meant to imprison her, her power divided up into the Sept-Terrions in order to prevent her from breaking out, which is why Ouroboros wants to either get their hands on them or have them destroyed.

• Alternatively: Aidios/Grandmaster was a genuinely heroic figure. She gave up most of her power in the form of the Sept-Terrions to avert some horrible catastrophe long ago. Now whatever disaster she managed to delay for a few millennia is looming again and she's having to go to extreme lengths to recover enough of her lost power to do something about it. This makes her current incarnation (and by extension Ouroboros in general) a Well-Intentioned Extremist willing to cause widespread chaos and destruction to prevent a greater evil.

The Enforcer system was set up in part to give its members a shot at redemption.

To be an Enforcer, you need to have "darkness in your heart". From the enforcers we've seen (aside from Campanella, who doesn't fit in with the rest of them at all), this means there's something for each of them that they are deeply conflicted about. Enforcers who overcome this inner conflict or trauma are free (and in fact encouraged) to leave. Assuming the theory that the Grandmaster is a Well-Intentioned Extremist holds true, this might very well be intentional. She wants the Enforcers (and even Anguis) to leave Ouroboros and manage to move on eventually. As such she wasn't sad about Weissman's death because she thought he was a cool dude but because he never managed to even slightly move towards his own redemption. It's not his loss that hurt her, it's her failure to redeem him.