History Main / ConfirmationBias

[[folder:Films -- Live-Action]]

-->'''Holmes''': It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts.

--> There was redemption for all -- our loved ones forgive us for any wrongdoing; they still love us; they suffer no more; they want us to be happy. What else would he say? "Your father wants you to know that he will never forgive you for wrecking his car"? (On James Van Pragh)

'''Woman:''' ''[picks the latter result]'' I knew it!\\
'''Google:''' ''[screaming]'' Just because I ''have it'' doesn't mean it's TRUE!
-->-- ''[[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJD1Iwy5lUY If Google Was A Guy (Part 3)]], '''Website/CollegeHumor'''''

* [[DeadHorseGenre Certain genres of music]] may fall into this trope, particularly those that began as underground movements and became mainstream later on; artists and songs would be judged primarily on their subject matter, perceived attitude, or whether or not a message is present, rather than being enjoyed/loathed for the music itself. Hip-hop music, due to its lyric-heavy, melody-sparse nature, might be the most prominent example. Particularly the artists of the PoliticalRap sub-genre. The main polarizers being Music/PublicEnemy, Music/TheCoup, and the extremely controversial rappers Paris, and Immortal Technique. And to a lesser extent, Music/IceCube, Music/IceT, and Music/TupacShakur.

This trope doesn't mean everyone with a given viewpoint will like something because it follows that view. Some may criticize it for not doing a good enough job of persuading the undecided or those with the opposite view. Contrast DontShootTheMessage, which is about disliking a work because of its style even if one may agree with its message.

* This trope becomes an actual plot point in ''[[https://www.tthfanfic.org/story.php?no=10229&rewrite=true Father Goose and the Black Knight]]'' (a Series/BuffyTheVampireSlayer / Series/LawAndOrderSpecialVictimsUnit crossover fanfic). Detective Stabler is so convinced that the only reason why an adult man like Xander Harris would be associated with a school for teenage girls is that he (Xander) is a pedophile. Of course, the truth is that the girls are all Slayers-in-Training, and Xander is one of their three teachers (the other two being a Watcher and Faith).

* ''Film/TheUsualSuspects'': This trope is {{discussed}} by Verbal Kint, who is interrogated by Inspector Kujan at a police investigation. Later, the audience will discover that Verbal not only discussed it, [[spoiler:but exploited it]].

* This trope is one of the many criticisms of Creator/PureFlix's ''Film/GodsNotDead'' and its [[Film/GodsNotDead2 sequel]]. Both of the films don't seem to do much other than play to the persecution complex that many American Christians have by making public education institutions out as atheist/liberal-run establishments bent on stamping out Christianity and portrays every character who isn't a Christian as being a miserable {{Jerkass}} who's hostile towards Christians. Not to mention the court cases cited in the end credits of both films as evidence that the films' plots are happening in real life; if you actually look into them, you'd see that none of them come close to the films' plots, but rather were cases of Christians discriminating against LGBT students or just more right-leaning political issues.

* Literature/{{Spenser}} has occasionally discussed this trope regarding police investigations, noting that cops tend to go with the simplest explanation for a crime. However, he has also pointed out that the simplest explanation really ''is'' the correct one most of the time, and for the few times it isn't, the fact is that the police always have lots of cases they're trying to clear (and there's always another eleven or more about to show up), so they don't have time to do an in-depth investigation of a crime that to all appearances has been solved.

* ''Series/TotallyBiasedWithWKamauBell'': Most if not all of the political jokes are funny if you agree with the guy. This trope applies even more so for almost all of the guests, the exception being Creator/ChrisRock.

* This trope is a lot of the source behind the legend of TheBermudaTriangle. While there have indeed been some shipwrecks or disasters in the region, it's a region twice the size of France, directly next to the well-traveled Caribbean and Florida, and therefore accidents of that sort cropping up would be downright expected. Most actual analyses of the region say that it's no more dangerous than you'd expect a place of its size and level of traffic to be; if anything, it's relatively safe by the standards of shipping routes. Additionally, due to the legend surrounding the place, events that would simply be described as "shipwrecks", "crashes", or "accidents" anywhere else get turned into "mysterious disappearances" when they happen in the Triangle. After all, it's easy to say that a ship "was never seen again" when it sunk in the middle of the ocean.

* This trope is a lot of the source behind the legend of the BermudaTriangle. While there have indeed been some shipwrecks or disasters in the region, it's a region twice the size of France, directly next to the well-traveled Caribbean and Florida, and therefore ''some'' mysterious happenings cropping up would be downright expected. Most actual analyses of the region say that it's no more dangerous than you'd expect a place of its size and level of traffic to be; if anything, it's relatively safe by the standards of shipping routes. Additionally, due to the legend surrounding the place, events that would simply be described as "shipwrecks", "crashes", or "accidents" anywhere else get turned into "mysterious disappearances" when they happen in the Triangle.

* Some critics have argued that [[NewMediaAreEvil the internet would result in "echo chambers" where everyone would just view news sites, blogs, and forums that didn't challenge their views]]. Online communities have since adopted the term "echo chamber" to refer to this phenomenon, along with other terms like "circlejerk" (which refers to a group of people [[ADateWithRosiePalms masturbating together]]) and "hug box" (which refers to [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hug_machine an actual device used to calm hypersensitivity]]). According to one [[http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1588920 study]], online "echo chambers" aren't any worse than other media (since radio, TV, and print media that pander to either side do exist and always have).

This trope doesn't mean everyone with a given viewpoint will like something because it follows that view. Some may criticize it for not doing a good enough job persuading the undecided or those with the opposite view. Contrast DontShootTheMessage, which is about disliking a work because of its style even if one may agree with its message.

* Those [[Advertising/GetAMac Mac vs. PC ads]] that depend entirely on AdHominem and misconceptions to sell their points to the audience, which in most cases either already agrees, disagrees and is already aware of what is untrue about the ads, [[UsefulNotes/{{UNIX}} Took A Third Option]], or is very easily DistractedByTheShiny, which admittedly usually tends to work in Apple's favor.

** Samsung has launched a similar ad campaign for their Android mobile devices, portraying Apple users like morons. And they actually ''directly'' attack the same exact potential customers they'd do well to convert. [[SarcasmMode Because we all know how well the Mac vs. PC ads worked.]] Yup, they're even copying Apple's failures. At this rate, soon they'll be rolling out their own maps app that tells you to drive over a lake, through your local library, and onto an airport runway.

* Creator/BillMaher falls under this, hard. His highly political material, paired with his tendency to try to be edgy, make him a very divisive comic prone to clapter/criticism, depending on who's watching.

* Dog-themed comics like ''Fred the Basset'' and ''Marmaduke'' tend to be praised by dog lovers and disliked by all others. ''Pluggers'' is loved by self-identified Pluggers (many of the comic ideas are sent in by readers) while people outside the demographic find the jokes incomprehensible. A similar trend follows for any other heavily themed comic.

* The documentary ''Film/{{Gasland}}'' about the supposed harm caused by hydraulic fracturing ('Fracking') of rock to mine natural gas. As the ''Podcast/{{Skeptoid}}'' [[http://skeptoid.com/episodes/4275 podcast points out]], it is hard to know what to make of the movie, since it's devoted to proving that fracking is dangerous and generally assumes all of the ill effects to local people (such as tap water that is ''flammable'') are caused by fracking and aren't simply natural phenomena specific to the area. Yet, conversely, most of the high-profile criticism of the movie has come from the natural gas industry, so it is very difficult to find an unbiased opinion on the subject.

* Morgan Spurlock's ''Film/SuperSizeMe'' famously followed the filmmaker as he lived on nothing but UsefulNotes/McDonalds for thirty days, eating everything on the menu at least once and super-sizing every time it is offered, suffering significant health and weight issues as a result. This appears to have been greatly aided by Spurlock suddenly changing to a sedentary lifestyle, eating far more than he needed to and sleeping a lot, as no one has been able to reproduce his results. Spurlock did all he could to reach the conclusion he wanted to reach, while many other studies have shown that combining [=McDonald's=] food with an active lifestyle and not overeating does not lead to health or weight issues. Spurlock himself tries to justify this in the documentary by claiming he was replicating the non-active lifestyle of the average American, but many still accuse him and the film of being [[DocumentaryOfLies disingenuous at best, outright lies at worst]].

* This trope is one of the many criticisms of Creator/PureFlix's ''Film/GodsNotDead'' and its [[Film/GodsNotDead2 sequel]]. Both of the films don't seem to do much other than play to the persecution complex that many American Christians have by making public education institutions out as atheist/liberal run establishments bent on stamping out Christianity and portrays every character who isn't a Christian as being a miserable {{Jerkass}} who's hostile towards Christians. Not to mention the court cases cited in the end credits of both films as evidence that the films' plots are happening in real life; if you actually look into them, you'd see that none of them come close to the films' plots, but rather were cases of Christians discriminating against LGBT students or just more right-leaning political issues.

* ''Literature/BehindTheSandratHoax'': Dr. Bancroff firmly refuses to believe that sandrats survive without water or that eating one can prevent dehydration. While conducting tests which support this claim, he deprives captive sandrats of their regular food, which, combined with their digestive system, lets the sandrats go without water. He spends the next four years citing this test while denying that people are surviving in the desert because of sandrats despite their stories offering no other explanation for how they survived. Dr. Cathcart publishes an article that derides Bancroff as an administrator with no scientific imagination and writes that "[[I]]n science, theories are based on ''facts,'' not vice-versa." Bancroff replies by firing Cathcart

* ''Literature/TheNumberOfTheBeast'': {{Invoked}} specifically by Zeb in his backstory. Specifically, he carefully structured his [=PhD=] thesis to "show" that biases held by all the members of his doctoral committee were widely held to be correct (crossed with AppealToObscurity, as he pulled a lot of selective quotations out of materials that hadn't been translated into English as part of his "research").

* Creator/JoeDante has a bad tendency to do this in his TV work. This lead to the latter half of ''Series/EerieIndiana'' being unwatchable by anyone who wasn't a capital-L liberal.
* The audience of ''Series/RealTimeWithBillMaher'' have been accused of heckling guests who fall on the opposite side from the host.

* In the UK, Channel 4 has made a slew of fly-on-the-wall documentaries that look at particular groups of people that relate to very controversial topics; e.g. ''My Granny, The Escort'', which looks at elderly prostitutes; ''Crazy About One Direction'', which, needless to say, looks at Music/OneDirection fans; and perhaps more infamously ''Benefits Street'', which looks at benefit claimants. What makes one hesitant to call these shows "documentaries" is that they don't present these issues in an informative manner, instead presenting a one-sided view of the people being covered. ''Benefits Street'' especially focuses primarily on people who aren't doing much with their lives outside of watching T.V., painting benefit claimants in a negative light, which has been pointed out by full-time parents and disabled people. This seems to be becoming more transparent, however, as a proposed spin-off ''Immigration Street'' was cancelled half-way through filming due to protests over possible racism-related violence.
* ''Series/YearsAndYears''. As the YMMV page lampshades, the way you view the series pretty much depends entirely on whether or not you agree with the political opinions of Creator/RussellTDavies. You'll think its either a terrifying look into the future, or a laughable tantrum against people Davies disagrees with.

* [[DeadHorseGenre Certain genres of music]] may fall into this trope, particularly those that began as underground movements and became mainstream later on; artists and songs would be judged primarily on their subject matter, perceived attitude, or whether or not a message is present, rather than being enjoyed/loathed for the music itself. Hip hop music, due to its lyric-heavy, melody-sparse nature, might be the most prominent example. Particularly the artists of the PoliticalRap sub-genre. The main polarizers being Music/PublicEnemy, Music/TheCoup, and the extremely controversial rappers Paris, and Immortal Technique. And to a lesser extent, Music/IceCube, Music/IceT, and Music/TupacShakur.
** Also affected are genres which rely on a particular philosophy: Things like [[ThreeChordsAndTheTruth Punk]] and BlackMetal come to mind.

* With the heavy focus on rumors and conspiracy theories, Confirmation Bias plays a big part of the story for ''VideoGame/Persona2''. The perhaps most damning instance is with Maya Okamura where as rumors start to become real she thoroughly digs into her own wild beliefs to affirm them, finding whatever she can to support them while ignoring anything that says otherwise, creating a self-fulfilling and toxic spiral. This culminates in her actively trying to make certain things true just to further indulge in her bias, [[spoiler:even if it means the end of the world]].

* The Republican National Committee, in the wake of the 2012 presidential election, admitted that many conservatives spoke only to people on their side or paid attention to news sources slanted in their favor (such as the Fox News Channel), which was likewise basing their stories only on what their own side was saying. As a result, they were convinced that Mitt Romney would be elected in a landslide, and basically let his campaign coast, confident he would win handily. Once that bubble of comfort was burst, however, the results were less than pretty. Karl Rove in particular had an on-camera meltdown when Fox News called Ohio[[note]]a big swing state and Mitt Romney's major hope to remain in the race, leading to the memetic response from Megyn Kelly: "Is this for real or math you do as a Republican to make yourself feel better?"[[/note]] for Barack Obama.
** The exact same thing occurred in 2016 to the Democrats (and to an extent, the mainstream Republican party). Donald Trump was initially treated as a joke by all media and establishment, who didn't realize how angry much of the populace were at the Washington insiders. It was not until Trump won multiple state primaries that people realized how much of the country had been excluded from the bubble and how upset they were. The same thing happened in the final election, with the majority of the media entering certain of a Clinton victory. The conviction was so strong that conspiracy theories immediately cropped up around Trump's victory.

* Conspiracy theorists tend to cite each other rather than any reputable outlet. The anti-vaccine blogosphere (''Age of Autism'', ''Natural News'') and quack "boomed" practitioners (Andrew Wakefield) they defend are a good example of this.

* A particularly nasty variant happened in the Renaissance. A few scholars put forth the idea that the five hundred year or so period between the fall of the Roman Empire and the "high middle ages" was a time of absolute ignorance where there was almost no development of civilization and science. They dubbed it the Dark Ages. When evidence refuting this theory was discovered they not only ignored it, they ''destroyed it.'' The damage can still be seen in modern history and the [[DungAges popular consciousness]]. [[labelnote:The Motive]]Modern evidence points to the idea that the Renaissance was a period of great scientific and artistic progression, but also great cultural ''regression.'' People in the Renaissance seemed to bathe far less than in the high medieval times and the dark ages for example. Church corruption and religious fanaticism were at an all-time high and the gap between the peasantry and nobility was much much greater. Renaissance scholars thus had to lie a great deal about the past to "prove" that the then modern period was such a leap forward. [[/labelnote]]
* A harmless, but still telling example: there was an experiment where they would tell people three numbers and ask them to guess the "rule" they followed. They would start with something like 2/4/6 and, starting from that example, most participants assumed it was "even numbers increasing by two" and would ask things like if 8/10/12, 14/16/18 and so on followed it until eventually making the guess. It turns out they were wrong: the rule is really "any three numbers in increasing order". What makes this so interesting is how easy it would be for those involved to ''disprove'' their theory (e.g ask "does 5/7/9 fit?") yet not one person involved thought to do this.

* ''WebComic/GrrlPower'' tackles the WolvesAlwaysHowlAtTheMoon trope when it introduces a werewolf character. As he explains, wolves howl a lot, and occasionally there's a moon, but since wolves howling at the moon is such a romantisized image, people only notice when it happens.
* This is a major reason for why, in law, eyewitness accounts are taken with a grain of salt: the SelfServingMemory is a very real phenomenon, and it can be easy to convince a witness that they saw something when they didn't, especially if what you're saying to them "sounds about right."

* In his Youtube podcast series ''Afterburner'', conservative American pundit Creator/BillWhittle often falls to this kind of logic, such as when attributing Plano, TX' record homicide lows to their [[UsefulNotes/AmericanGunPolitics high gun ownership rate]] -- [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plano,_Texas and absolutely no other factors]]. Another [[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nuv0K8H8ILM example]] has him concluding that America's ''laissez-faire'' economic model had [[CulturalPosturing made the country more inventive and ingenious]] than 'Socialist' countries like Sweden. His compelling evidence: the clicks he needed on Wiki/TheOtherWiki to find entries on American and Swedish inventions.

* {{Spenser}} has occasionally discussed this trope regarding police investigations, noting that cops tend to go with the simplest explanation for a crime. However, he has also pointed out that the simplest explanation really ''is'' the correct one most of the time, and for the few times it isn't, the fact is that the police always have lots of cases they're trying to clear (and there's always another eleven or more about to show up), so they don't have time to do an in-depth investigation of a crime that to all appearances has been solved.

** There's also the fact that towards the end of the movie's production, the critics it was based on who had supposedly proved many of the dangers of fracking were discovered to have been frauds. When asked how the movie was going to address it, it was suggested that in the movie, the fraudulent critics would be portrayed as secretly being in the employ of the companies that would profit from fracking and that they ''allowed'' themselves to be revealed as frauds to discredit fracking critics.

'''Google:''' Well, I have one million results that say that they ''don't''... and one result that says they do.\\

* ''Series/{{MASH}}'' started with a noticeable anti-war stance, but was still entertaining enough to be enjoyed by someone who disagreed with the show's views. As the series went on, it seemed to become, at least within the show, increasingly required that viewers agree with every line of the Alan Alda Book Of Morality.

** ''Series/TheDailyShow'' is the main example on the "left-wing" side. Ostensibly as a comedy show, it's become more and more political over the years and is even used by some people as a source of legitimate news. The investigative reports almost always take on a format where one side is represented by an activist who is sensible, if prone to jokes, while the other side is represented by a StrawmanPolitical, parodying the at times extreme confirmation bias found in shows they lambast while simultaneously employing it.
*** It may be noted that most of these [[StrawmanPolitical Political Strawmen]] [[NotMakingThisUpDisclaimer are not fake, but actually believe everything they are saying]], and one of Stewarts' final episodes actually went out of their way to re-interview some of the "crazier" guests they had on the show to confirm. These guests, however, made it clear that they knew exactly what they were in for, but still considered it a win because they got their message out there, there would always be people who agreed with them, and in some cases simply loved being on the show anyway and thought it was just as funny and enjoyable as the audience did, if for different reasons.

Compare the related fallacies NoTrueScotsman, HitlerAteSugar, MovingTheGoalposts, and BeggingTheQuestion. A form of SelectiveObliviousness; see also OpinionMyopia. Taken to extremes, this way of thinking will result in a CaptainOblivious.

This comes in several forms:

In fandom, the first of these three types of Confirmation Bias is the most common. Essentially, if a book or any other media product follows a distinct philosophical, political, or religious slant, then people who agree with that slant will often like it despite any flaws it has. Conversely, people who ''disagree'' with its message will often reject it out of hand, regardless of how well written it is.

On the other hand, having this type of Confirmation Bias ''doesn't'' mean that the audience is unreasonable, despite the fact that they may not be receptive to your particular work. If a work, despite how well-written, advocates or is founded on principles that the audience finds contradictory to their sense of morality or ethical responsibility, they may find themselves unable to respond favorably (e.g. a book which advocates the genocide of a certain ethnic group won't find many supporters among that group...or the majority of people who value human life). The viewpoint of the work may be so detestable to a specific audience that the message may be ''more important'' to that audience than the beauty of the cinematography or brilliance of the acting. The reverse may be true as well. If a work displays a message that is very important to the audience, they may forgive its flaws in favor of the ideals (e.g. a film about the importance of peace and love will be better received by people who believe in pacifism and universal compassion), although [[DontShootTheMessage people are usually more critical — as in objective critique — of the style of a work they agree with]], than the style of a work whose message they despise (where the style may be ''completely'' over-shadowed by the ideology).

Keep in mind, however, that many people neither agree or disagree with a message before being presented with an argument that they find convincing. The purpose of many of the examples of this trope can legitimately be said in at least a small part to convince the undecided, rather than change someone's mind. Even so, the Confirmation Bias effect is noticeable.

It is worth noting that even if a work may be not be aimed at converting ideological outsiders, [[WeAREStrugglingTogether that doesn't necessarily mean it's not designed to convert people]].

Also note that confirmation bias does not have to favor ''positive'' beliefs. Atheists, for instance, can be just as prone to considering only arguments opposing, not supporting, the existence of God.

Also, this does not mean that everyone with a given viewpoint will like a work just because it follows that same view. Some may criticize it for not doing a good enough job persuading those who are undecided or who have the opposite view. Contrast DontShootTheMessage, which is about disliking a work because of its style even if one may agree with its message.

Compare the related fallacies NoTrueScotsman, HitlerAteSugar, MovingTheGoalposts, and BeggingTheQuestion. A form of SelectiveObliviousness; see also OpinionMyopia.

Taken to extremes, this way of thinking will result in a CaptainOblivious.

* This trope is a lot of the source behind the legend of the BermudaTriangle. While there have indeed been some shipwrecks or disasters in the region, it's a region twice the size of France, directly next to the well-traveled Caribbean and Florida, and therefore ''some'' mysterious happenings cropping up would be downright expected. Most actual analyses of the region say that it's no more dangerous than you'd expect a place of its size and level of traffic to be[ if anything, it's relatively safe by the standards of shipping routes. Additionally, due to the legend surrounding the place, events that would simply be described as "shipwrecks", "crashes", or "accidents" anywhere else get turned into "mysterious disappearances" when they happen in the Triangle.

* The documentary ''Gasland'' about the supposed harm caused by hydraulic fracturing ('Fracking') of rock to mine natural gas. As the ''Podcast/{{Skeptoid}}'' [[http://skeptoid.com/episodes/4275 podcast points out]], it is hard to know what to make of the movie, since it's devoted to proving that fracking is dangerous and generally assumes all of the ill effects to local people (such as tap water that is ''flammable'') are caused by fracking and aren't simply natural phenomena specific to the area. Yet, conversely, most of the high-profile criticism of the movie has come from the natural gas industry, so it is very difficult to find an unbiased opinion on the subject.

* ''The God Delusion'' by UsefulNotes/RichardDawkins (whose thesis is [[ExactlyWhatItSaysOnTheTin exactly what it sounds like]]) is a notable example. Naturally, when Alister [=McGrath=] wrote ''The Dawkins Delusion'' (a book that argues against Dawkins' book), almost anyone who agreed with Dawkins' book automatically disliked [=McGrath=]'s book, whereas those who disagreed with Dawkins' book were almost always immediate fans of [=McGrath=]'s book. Even if a book were itself unbiased, the readers' bias would likely result in a similar reaction. As with many of these examples, [[PraisingShowsYouDontWatch very few actually]] [[MainstreamObscurity read them both]], as noted in the reviews themselves.

* In ''A Scandal In Bohemia'', Literature/SherlockHolmes warns us of the dangers of this fallacy in regards to investigation:

* Totally Biased With W. Kamau Campbell: Most if not all of the political jokes are funny if you agree with the guy. This trope applies even more so for almost all of the guests, the exception being Creator/ChrisRock.

* People who follow the Young Earth movement--that is, who believe that God literally created the world in a week and the planet is only 6000 years old based on Biblical evidence--tend to consider all evidence to the contrary (such as fossils and artifacts carbon-dated to more than 6000 years old) as having been placed there either by God or the Devil (depending on who you ask) to "test their faith".

* Confirmation bias drives the mindset of the Reapers in the VideoGame/MassEffect series. They were created by an advanced Artificial Intelligence who became convinced that synthetic life would inevitably attack and destroy organic life, and created the reapers as a way to supposedly "preserve" organic life in a synthetic form. The idea that organics and synthetics could co-exist peacefully (as demonstrated by [[{{Fembot}} EDI]], the Geth, and (in ''VideoGame/MassEffectAndromeda'') [[BenevolentAI SAM]]) never occurred to them or were considered one-off anomalies every time the situation popped up.