WMG / Identity V

As a WMG subpage, all spoilers are unmarked as per policy. You Have Been Warned.

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The DeRoss family, Oletus Manor, and Orpheus

The DeRoss family was attacked because of their ties with the supernatural

Let's face it, there is some seriously freaky stuff going on in Oletus Manor. It is possible that Dennis DeRoss could have been trying to contain some of these supernatural forces and when some of them got out, a mob thought that his family was responsible and they were attacked for it. This would explain all the stuff that happened (such as Bane's and Ann's transformations into Hunters) after the attack as there would be no means to contain them.

• Alternatively, DeRoss is responsible for the supernatural events and could in fact be an Eldritch Abomination.
  • If pronounced a certain way, DeRoss sounds similar to Daoloth, who is an Outer God from the Cthulhu Mythos and has the ability to grant wishes. What are the Survivors going to Oletus Mansion for? To have their wishes granted and fortunes reversed.
  • Another one of Daoloth's powers is the ability to send others to different dimensions, which could explain how there can be up to 4 (8 if it's in duo hunters mode) versions of the same character in a single match and how they can spawn in maps so quickly.
  • If this is indeed true, it could potentially explain why Hastur and Yidhra willingly(?) became hunters.
  • In addition, if Orpheus is related to DeRoss then his Split Personality could also be eldritch in nature.

The manor transcends time

And all of the survivors from the first set of diaries first arrived at the manor during different years.

A certain amount of time ago, the (apparent) exact ages of certain survivors were released. Among these survivors were the group from the first set of diaries. Emma Woods/The Gardener was said to be 22, Freddy Riley/The Lawyer was said to be 38, Emily Dyer/The Doctor was said to be 32, and Kreacher Pierson/The Thief was said to be 30. While these ages are not confirmed to be canon, they do raise a lot of questions if they are indeed accurate. To start, Freddy was said to have met Martha Remington during the celebration of Lisa's first birthday in 1877. When applying math, this would imply that Freddy was 17-18 when he met Martha. Now it's possible that Freddy Likes Older Women, or, given that Leo and Martha's marriage was possibly an arranged one (which were common during that period of time) Martha herself was either a young woman, or in her earlier to mid twenties (while her husband was, allegedly, middle-aged). While this specific part of the backstory can be seen as strange, it can be glossed over and accepted by fans. And yet Freddy doesn't look a day younger than he does in the game...

Let us then look at future events in the backstory. When she was sent to the orphanage, Lisa Beck (Emma) was said to be 8-9 years old. Math would imply that Kreacher was 17-18 when she arrived at the orphanage. But now look at the official photos, only detailed in the deductions, that we currently have. During his time managing the orphanage, Kreacher looked exactly like he does in the game (minus the button eyes). Each of these photos are also implied to have been taken before Lisa arrived at the orphanage (with one of them seemingly depicting the founding of the orphanage). The same scenario occurs in the picture depicting Emily/Lydia about to administer shock therapy on 14-year old Lisa. Lydia would likely be 24-25, yet, like Kreacher, doesn't look a day younger then how she does in the game. Now you could just argue that both characters aged well (or badly in Kreacher's case) or the developers just wanted to make sure the players recognised the characters and just shrug it all off as a coincidence.

But then remember these two details. Lydia/Emily went into hiding following her botched surgery on Martha Remington. A surgery which, judging by both Freddy and Emily's Character Day letters, likely took place shortly after Lydia's attempt to cure Lisa of her apparent mental illness through shock therapy. This would imply that Lydia/Emily spent, at most, eight years in hiding. And yet, in-game, she still wears the same clothes that she does in what little photos we have of her past self, and likely managed to remain hidden from a man who wanted to find and enact vengeance on her. We also don't know what happened to Kreacher in the period of time before he came to the manor. His Character Day letter implies that he might have attempted to start up an asylum, but was turned down in favour of Baron DeRoss' donation, while his deductions imply he was arrested at one point. And yet his official background states that he desires to win the game in order to fund another orphanage. If he remained a free man, what has been doing for nearly a decade? If he was previously imprisoned, why would he possibly think that he would be allowed to start up another orphanage, especially when his last one was taken from him following an investigation that decreed the children all needed to be institutionalised? Although he was arrested for theft, and the church is hinted to have had an ulterior motive, so make of that what you will.

Finally, there's the character diaries. Emma, Freddy and Kreacher all begin their diaries having already been in the manor for a certain period of time. We are given no indication of who arrived first, or if they met each other before coming inside the manor. Freddy briefly notes that the host did give them the basics on what was going to happen in the coming days, but we are left without any idea of what exactly happened during this briefing. Unlike the other three, Emily arrives at the manor at a later date. During her diary, no allusion is given to what life on the run has been like. It's almost like she arrived at the manor shortly after fleeing the clinic...

Is this all a case of Writers Cannot Do Math or ambiguous writing? Or is this all intentional, and a hint to the true power possessed by the forces behind the manor? We already know that they are capable of creating an exact replica of the Minerva Arms Factory, seemingly out of thin air. Not one, but two, Outer Gods are also hunters. It really makes you think about just how powerful the forces behind the manor truly are...

• Seemingly jossed, at least in regards to Kreacher, as his 2021 Character Day letter confirms that ten years have passed since he encountered Lisa Beck in the White Sand Street Asylum.

Orpheus' novels are based on the stories of the survivors

It should be noted that we do not yet know what Orpheus' novels were about, only that they were part of the "mystery genre." If you believe that Orpheus is/was indeed the mastermind behind the games, it's possible that he chose to base his stories off the tragedies and/or crimes committed by the survivors and hunters. Perhaps inviting several survivors, who possessed certain connections to each, was his way of giving each of their stories a cathartic conclusion.

• Well, if the Oletus Manor Investigation Report can be considered a reliable source, quite a number of his novels seemed to revolve around mysterious and cursed manors...
  • Judging by information revealed in both the preview for Ashes of Memory and the first Side Chapter in the Orfeo's game anniversary event, confirmed to be the case at least in regards to Queen Bee (Melly) and The Thirteenth Gift (Norton).

Alternatively...

Orpheus' novels are the stories detailed in both the seasonal essences and the Call of the Abyss events

The background stories for these skins are surprisingly detailed. The story of one such essence bears a striking resemblance to that of Murder on the Orient Express. Call of the Abyss, likewise, contains a large amount of references to the Lovecraftian Mythos. Perhaps Orpheus is an Expy of H. P. Lovecraft, Agatha Christie and a number of other authors. It's possible that the developers are secretly giving us a glimpse into a part of the backstory that we would never find out about whilst the story remains focused on the survivors and hunters.

• It is confirmed in-game that the plots of the Call of the Abyss events were indeed stories that Orpheus wrote before he lost his memory. Jury's still out on whether the same can be said for the plots of the other essences.

Orpheus' novels are the stories of the Survivors and Hunters

The Character Diaries are the finished stories while the deductions are the notes he would make to create a plot and for world building. In addition, the in-game matches are drafts of all the possible scenarios that could play out.If this is the case then Lucky Guy would be his Author Avatar.

Greek Tragedy, Faustian Pacts, Lovecraftian, and other Horrors.

If Orpheus really is Baron Dennis DeRoss', it could possibly be his Pen name as an author. This could be how he actually made his fortune, by using the stories of the Hunters, and the Survivors, to create his own stories, and sold them. If this is true, it might also be true that Oletus Manor transcends time, or is sealed in a paradox loop, possibly in a sealed sub-dimension similar to Other World in Coraline, hence the button eyes.

We don't really know where Oletus Manor is actually located, (possibly in Europe?), yet Orpheus goes there at the request of James Reichenbach. Reichenbach has many meanings and definitions, but 3 in particular stand out when considering this story.

1) Reichenbach can be defined as feelings of intense dark emotion. Usually dealing with grief, sadness, abandonment, uncertainty, and occasionally anger. Orpheus, and Baron DeRoss' certainly fit that.

2) Reichenbach is a small, remote village in Germany. Or as one could also say "out in the sticks".

3) Reichenbach can also mean strongly flowing stream, or river.

Also Oletus Manor is also called Eurydice Manor on a hanging sign in one animated trailer.

Now we tie these factors together with some Fridge Logic. Dark, negative emotions, sticks, and river. The River Styx in Greek Mythology. Orpheus, and Eurydice, are a husband/wife couple in Greek mythology, Eurydice died on their wedding night, bitten by a snake. Orpheus crossed the River Styx into the Underworld to get her soul back, and restore her to life. Ultimately, he failed. What character in Identity V is snake-themed? Yidhra. One of two Lovecraftian Gods, where dealing in souls could be a very simple issue.

We also don't know the exact location of Lakeside Village either, but it was known to be visited by a few tourists and writers, one of whom wrote a horror novel that revealed a lot of secrets about it. Could this have been Orpheus? Could the mob have been the inhabitants of said village out for revenge, and sacrificed his children, and wife, to Hastur, and Yidhra, respectively? It is heavily implied that children were sacrificed to Hastur, could Yidhra have his wife's soul, and Hastur have his children's. Also the mob was said to include some "familiar faces", people he knew from the village? Ultimately Hastur wiped out the inhabitants of this village, was this because Orpheus offered it a better deal?

Now consider the Hunters like Galatea/Sculptor who is based on the Greek myth of a statue taking on life. Burke who actually created an A.I. robot, Percy, a literal Frankenstein monster, and two Lovecraftian Outer Gods, could the whole game be centered around DeRoss' agenda to resurrect his wife, and children, with him resorting to quite literally every possible method of doing so? Maybe he is trying to bargain with Hastur, and Yidhra by trading even more souls for those of his wife and children. Also, if the Manor does transcend time, could the stories of the Hunters and Survivors possibly be transmitted to a younger Orpheus, as his inspiration, and thus in a time loop, thereby repeating the whole cycle over, and over again?

Everything in IDV is all in Orpheus's mind.

The whole story, the game, and all the characters are in Orpheus's mind. He is a combination of Kevin Wendell Crumb, Henry Jekyll , and possibly the Beldam.

New clues revealed in game show that Orpheus and the Hunter, the Nightmare both have the exact same scar on their left hand. Orpheus is also the Novelist Survivor, one of the Novelist's skins has him wearing a similar, and undamaged outfit that resembles the Nightmare's outfit. Also his face on one side appears deformed as if he were beginning to go through some sort of metamorphosis. A new feature of the game also reveals that the "Father" personality wants him to protect the little girl.

New videos have shown Orpheus both changing into a monstrous form, after drinking a potion, and attacking the other survivors, like Prospector. Another implies that the Novelist was also an inmate of the Orphanage and/or White Sand Street Asylum, just like several other survivors.

It is being heavily implied Orpheus is Baron DeRoss, the real father of the Little Girl survivor, as well as being the Novelist survivor, and the Nightmare hunter.

If this is the case, then it could be that Baron DeRoss has been playing his "game" with other people. His wife, and daughter then both got involved to try and stop him, but he killed his wife, while his daughter escaped, and revealed to the world what was actually going on, so a mob attacked his mansion.

How did he escape? He drank a potion he made, transformed into Orpheus, his favorite mythological, and literary character, and created another personality to hide behind, pretending to be a survivor. After enough time has passed, DeRoss starts to resurface, and influence him again, thus subtly leading him back to his mansion to once again find his potion, and change back.

Every Hunter, and every survivor, is just one of his many personalities in his head. Quite possibly the most extreme form of Dissociative Identity Disorder (DID). Orpheus/Novelist is also a writer, and a large portion of the Hunters are definitely based on famous historical, and literary characters. While others could be people he learned about, and whose stories might have left a big impression on him.

Examples would be: the Ripper, the Photographer, the Bloody Queen, the Soul Weaver, the Sculptor, the Violinist, the Wax Artist, and maybe even the White/Black Guards. All of these could be, and possibly are, based upon actual historical figures. The stories of which might really impress him.

Hunters like the Hell Ember, the Smiley Face, the Gamekeeper, the Geisha, the Mad Eyes, the Axe Boy, the Evil Reptilian, the Disciple, the Breaking Wheel, and the Naiad. People he heard about, and took pity on due to their tragic stories, and thus felt they deserved some sort of justice in his mind.

Hunters like the Feaster, the Dream Witch, Guard 26, and the Undead, all definitely fall under the literary characters section, which a writer like him could easily admire, and want to incorporate into his own "story".

As for the Survivors, each and every one of them could be people he has met with, and got impressions of them ranging from poor, to absolutely disgusted with them, based on what he has learned about them. Thus he sees them as those who must be punished by being hunted down by him as the Hunters. Even if some of them are innocent of wrongdoing, he might feel otherwise, and believed they could have done better. Magician being a particular example, he didn't kill his mentor, but Orpheus either believes he is lying, or could have done more to prevent his death. So he refuses to forgive him.

As for the doll like appearances of the Survivors, Orpheus could see that as the form that they all deserve to be trapped in, and no matter what damage they suffer, he can put them back together, and punish them over, and over again.

If a supernatural, or magic aspect is involved, the mansion itself could be in another dimension only he now reach, or let others reach. Thus ensuring the survivors can never really escape. It could also be that the survivors really are trapped there, and that he is feeding on their souls, and extending his existence, thus explaining why the survivors seem to hail from numerous different time periods. Much like some other creatures...

• Half-Jossed. It has been officially confirmed that Orpheus's point of view is not reliable, but also that not everything in the manor is a hallucination, as we also see Alice Derross's point of view, which is based on the reality, but also not completely reliable.

As for the Little Girl, Orpheus sees her as his daughter that he needs to protect, even if that is not her true form, not a rebellious teen, or an angry adult, disgusted by his actions/crimes, but as his sweet little defenseless child, that only he can save from the other monsters in the mansion. Yet more proof of his insanity.

or...

The Little Girl is not his daughter, but actually his wife. It could be that DeRoss's wife set fire to the mansion to distract him long enough for their daughter to escape. Their daughter escaped, while she died and became trapped in the mansion as another victim. In game the Little Girl can create a ring of fire that blasts a Hunter away from them, maybe she retains this ability because it kept DeRoss at bay long enough for her daughter to escape?

• Half-Jossed, Half-Confirmed. Little Girl is not his real daughter but his hallucinations about Alice Derross who is implied to be his adopted sister rather than his fiancée.

The missing girl

There is no missing girl or a James Reichenbach.

A lot of fans believe that Orpheus' story has just been put Out of Focus, in favour of focusing on the survivors and the hunters. But perhaps that's not the case. Perhaps Orpheus' role in the story was to go to Oletus Manor and (re)start the games and/or begin the stories of the survivors and hunters.

But then who is the girl in the picture? Well...

The girl in the picture is the girl mentioned in Bane's Character Deduction Letter

Specifically, she's Baron DeRoss' sister (or daughter, if you believe that Dennis DeRoss is Baron DeRoss). Notice how one of the animated trailers for the game devotes as much time to showing us glimpses of Orpheus' childhood and family as it does to showing us the spectre of the girl and her apparent past. Perhaps the reason for this is because the girl and Orpheus share a familial connection. And if you believe that Orpheus is/was Baron DeRoss, and his Split Personality is supernatural in nature, it wouldn't be too farfetched to believe that the girl is modelled after someone from Orpheus' lost past.

• Confirmed. It's his adoptive sister/childhood friend Alice DeRoss.

It's even possible that the girl has actually been a part of the game for a very long time. Specifically...

Martha Behamfil/The Coordinator is the "missing girl" Orpheus was sent to find

This one is admittedly a bit more of a stretch, and Wild Mass Guessing, but hear me out. Every time that Baron DeRoss has been contacted or alluded to by another character, it has been implied that said character is completely unaware of what goes on at Oletus Manor (e.g. Sister Lorraine allegedly only knows him to be a specialist in psychology, and never brings up his personal history, though this may be professional courtesy). In one of the only two times that the games being held at the manor are acknowledged in the Character Day letters (William Ellis/The Forward's letter), DeRoss (or another character who serves as the "Host") lies about the true purpose of the game being held at the manor. Every current survivor has already been given a motive for coming to the manor, and none of them have been said to have a specific connection to the lord of the manor. As far as we can tell, Baron DeRoss is very likely The Spook to the survivors. None of them appear to have have had any prior knowledge of the manor, and the baron, before arriving at Oletus Manor.

Except for one.

The Coordinator, in her Character Day letter (assuming she is indeed the one who wrote the letter) reveals that she is seemingly aware of a past tragedy that occurred at the manor (which is very likely the DeRoss family's abduction and/or murder), and then, surprisingly, attempts to negotiate with DeRoss. Her letter also mentions a gentleman associated with said tragedy. One would at first assume said gentleman to be Burke. He wasn't around to prevent the event from occurring and was consumed by guilt as a result. But what if said gentleman isn't Burke. After all, Burke is a hermit, known to dislike others, who seemingly chose to remain in the manor following the tragic event. Perhaps the gentleman being alluded to in the letter is actually Dennis DeRoss' son. A son who, following Bane's Character Day letter, we now know apparently had a sister. A sister who would likely have a first-hand recollection of the tragedy being alluded to in the letter.

Let's now acknowledge Orpheus' (alleged) backstory detailed in the Chinese version of the game. After his father's (apparent) disfigurement and murder, the young Orpheus was apparently tricked into giving away his entire fortune and then sent to an asylum. There is not a single hint of his hypothetical sister. It's possible that Orpheus isn't Dennis' son. It's possible that the alleged DeRoss daughter hadn't been added to the story yet. Or maybe, just maybe, she was sent away, before or even after the night the mob descended on Oletus Manor.

Let's now look at Martha's deductions. She clearly has an established name and family members, and her first deduction does give the implication that her mother was disappointed when she gave birth to a girl. However, it's possible that the Behamfil's were actually given custody of a child, whose gender they were initially unaware of. And given that Martha's Character Day letter puts everything we thought we knew about her into question, it's possible that the entirety of Martha's previously established backstory is an example of Unreliable Narrator.

Assuming that there actually is at least a certain amount of truth to Martha's deductions, it is a bit odd that Baron DeRoss would refuse to give Martha a different first name for her alias at the manor. Perhaps the name "Martha" was just a part of the lie, and her real name was something different. Or maybe the manor owner has a close connection to this particular survivor, and wanted her to keep the name that she was born with...

Granted, we have not yet been given Martha's Character Diary, so we have no idea if the background story she gives to her fellow survivors even matches up with what is detailed in her deductions. We also do not know if she is indeed the one who wrote the letter. For now, this particular theory will likely remain Wild Mass Guessing.

• This one's looking incredibly unlikely after Time of Reunion.
• Absolutely jossed, given all we now know about Alice DeRoss.

The Little Girl is really Mrs DeRoss.

As mentioned above the Little Girl is not his daughter, but actually his wife. Her maiden name might have been Reichenbach, hence DeRoss being able to convince Orpheus to look for her.In game she would give certain responses that implied that she knew quite a lot about the locations. So they might in fact be related to hers, and Baron DeRoss's past.

Orpheus: Her dad liked Greek Mythology, and her best friend (possibly Dennis or "Orphey"), her future husband?) liked to play him in the plays they reenacted.

Lakeside Village: Possibly where they first met, lived, and possibly encountered a serious tragedy, or trauma. DeRoss most likely wrote, and sold, stories about the place, and events there.

Golden Cave: Possibly where they played together, or hid from a lynch mob, or enemies, maybe they witnessed sacrifices (murders) and other traumatic events. Maybe DeRoss wrote about them?

Sacred Heart Hospital: Possibly both were sent there after being injured in Lakeside Village or the Golden Cave. Or possibly they financed and built it as adults, before it got destroyed.

White Sand Street Asylum: Where both were sent to after events in Lakeside Village, Golden Cave, and Lakeside Hospital, while it was still an Orphanage, then became an Asylum, and both (or at least DeRoss alone) were abused and bullied.

Moon River Park: Where they possibly first met, or went on dates when they were older?

Red Church: Where they were both married?

Oletus Manor: Where they lived and built a family.

Arms Factory: Maybe DeRoss used this site as the grounds for his first "game"?

Forest of No Return: DeRoss's 'preferred' location for his "Games", possibly where his wife and daughter discovered his atrocities and she died while allowing her daughter to escape.She and her daughter visited him, and discovered his "game" of hunting people, and tried to stop him. She in turn caused a fire to keep him from getting her daughter, sacrificing herself to let her daughter get away. Her soul then became trapped in the manor, and forced to take on the most pure, and innocent form her chooses to remember her as. Yet she is still able to resist him and help the others to try and escape.

Or...

She is just another personality in Orpheus' mind, like above, he is choosing to remember her in her most pure and innocent form, when they were both kids. Her fighting back, and using a ring of fire to stop him, is him remembering how she fought him before, and a part of his guilty conscience.

• It's also possible that Little Girl is really Mrs. DeRoss (Orpheus's wife), while the Missing Girl is actually Orpheus's daughter.
• Jossed. Little Girl is really the daughter of the DeRoss couple.

Future Characters

Lore Characters becoming playable

• Sister Lorraine Miller, being called “The Nun” being a member of the Robbie/Axe Boy game.
• Miles Donald, Geisha's husband, being called “The loose one”, “the veteran” or the “the commissioner”.
• Martha Remington as a hunter in Emma’s second game.
• Sam Bourbon being called “the mixologist” or the “herbalist”. Bonus points if he is a member of the first part of Game 6.
• Edmund Reed, the officer in Jack's letter being called “the investigator”, the “policeman” or “the inspector”
• One of the Berglund brothers as a switch to Dream Witch.
• Charles Mesmer being a survivor/hunter switch like Orpheus.
• Arthur Byers as a switch for the Feaster.
• Sulivan, Helena's teacher, as a huntress and manor worker.
• Arthur Russel being a survivor/hunter switch like Orpheus.
• Andrea from Antonio lore as a manor related person.
• The manor's secretary, Elaine, mentioned in the 2021 Christmas event as a hunter.
• Duquein Thompson as a survivor, bonus points If called “The Matchmaker” or “Herpetologist”
• Jerry Carl as one of Jack's team members
• Big Daddy
• Percy’s assistant Mikhail, presumably as an undead hunter.
• Tang Si as Hunter since like Alva she doesn't have button eyes.
• Manus de Capet as a hunter.
• The evil dentist as a hunter
• Nicholas from Sangria backstory as a hunter
• Anne's husband or father
• One or more of the poachers mentioned in Bane's backstory.

Speculations for the confirmed future Hunter to Hunter identity switch

• Dolores White as a switch for the Axe Boy.
• Mary Kreiburg’s Ghost as a Switch for the Blood Queen.
• An older version of the Joseph as a switch for the photographer, since his letters presented him as an old man when he was at the manor.
• Bane Perez out of his minotaur persona for gamekeeper.
• Miles Donald subverting expectations and being a hunter
• Wu Chang possessing the First Officer as implied by Wu Chang's third letter and First Officer's fourth letter
• The "demon" who possesses Antonio as a switch for the violinist.
• A hunter's version of Christina for the Wax Artist.

Speculations for future characters

Feel free to add more.

• A human being possessed by the Great Yithian race.
  • Confirmed. "Ivy" or "The Shadow" is a woman being used as a vessel for a yith.
• A time traveler trapped in the Victorian era.
• An Indian Jones Expy
• A Sherlock Holmes Expy
• A Vampire Expy from Dracula or Carmilla.
• A deep diver.
• An alien
• A Bedsheet Ghost
• The mothman
• A train conductor
• A rat catcher

Darren Berglund will become a future survivor

One of Yidhra's deductions imply that he eventually went searching for his brother.

Family: No matter what he did, Darren, you need to bring him back.

He also has an established connection to both Luchino and Yidhra, and his brother was connected to Hastur, Priestess and, technically, Female Dancer. Given that it will likely be a long time until we get a diary that utilises Luchino or Yidhra as a Hunter (and the game has already amassed a large number of survivors) it's very likely that Darren will soon become a more active part of the game's story.

Stranger A will eventually become playable.

In the tutorial level, the player controls Lucky Guy and while he manages to escape Joker/The Smiley Face, his teammate Stranger A isn't so lucky. Given that he still did appear in the match, it is possible that he will come back as a playable character and with him, we could possibly find out more about Lucky Guy as well.

Melly’s Hunter form will be called “The Queen Bee”

If Norton is Fool's Gold (the name of the story Orpheus based on him), it would make sense that Melly would also be named after the story based on her.

Survivor WMG

Walter Gilman from The Dreams in the Witch House is The Priestess's father.

• After leaving his family to pursue "heroes and beauties", he could have gone to Miskatonic University when he heard the rumors of a witch formerly inhabiting a house nearby only to have his own run-in with a force related to an Eldritch Abomination. He probably learned some of his math skills from his ex-wife. The fact that Fiona never hears from him again could be because he was killed by a man-faced rat.
  • Alternatively, Fiona herself is an Expy of Walter and ended up going through a similar experience to that in the story, either prior to coming to the manor, or during her time there. A number of fans are convinced that she was previously involved in some kind of human sacrifice (despite what little evidence there currently is to that theory, unless you believe she joined the cult of Lakeside Village). In addition, Walter discovered an equation which allowed him to make wormholes, which are similar to the portals Fiona can make. Whatever the reason, Fiona having that particular surname is unlikely to be a coincidence.

Lucky Guy is a Tulpa

Let's face it, Lucky Guy is a complete mystery. He has no character deductions, and his given background story doesn't give us any idea of just who he is, outside of being a man with an insane amount of luck. No survivors or hunters have been shown to possess any sort of connection to him in their background stories. It's like he doesn't actually exist inside the world of the game.

Maybe that's because he doesn't.

The only time Lucky Guy appears in the main game is when a past game held at the manor is pictured by Orpheus. During said game, Lucky Guy seemingly merges with Orpheus. This is when things start to get even stranger for Orpheus. Coincidence?

• As theorised in a previous WMG, Outer God, Daoloth, may be connected to Oletus Manor. Daoloth allegedly experiences time non-linearly. This would explain why Lucky Guy is dressed in modern clothing, while the other survivors and hunter's appearances are based on the fashion style present in the Victorian Era.

Martha Remington was not allowed custody of her daughter

Let's be honest, Victorian Era England was an incredibly patriarchal society with strict gender roles. It especially looked down on women who committed adultery. By running off with Freddy Riley/The Lawyer, Martha would have effectively forfeited custody of her daughter. It's very likely that when she tried to retrieve her daughter from the orphanage, or the asylum, she was denied the chance to take custody of her daughter. What's worse is that, by leaving Freddy, she was also now an unmarried woman, with a baby on the way. England also looked down on single mothers. Illegitimate children of unmarried woman would often be taken away from their mothers. It's very likely that this was what convinced Martha to go to the Lydia Jones Clinic and have an abortion. And, well, we know how that turned out...

Freddy Riley/The Lawyer won the game he participated in

Out of all four of the survivors in the diaries, Freddy is the only one to end his specific diary safe from danger. Kreacher is burned alive, Emily is attacked by Leo/The Hell Ember and Emma is last seen standing by the burning scarecrow, which would likely attract attention, waiting for Emily to come. That leaves despicable old Freddy as the sole survivor and apparent victor of the game.

The lord of the manor clearly possesses supernatural powers. Therefore, it's not a stretch to say that the prize for winning would be to have a wish granted. At this point Freddy has already taken revenge on Emily, and is now aware of the sheer power the lord of the manor possesses. So he requests that the lord of the manor bring his late wife back from the dead. Freddy either goes on to become Orpheus' neighbour, with a now resurrected Martha, or becomes trapped in a Lotus-Eater Machine constructed by the manor, tricked into thinking that all of his dreams have come true.

• Jossed. Emma and Freddy's letters imply that Emma was the winner, and that she eliminated Freddy. The tutorial was also retconned, with Freddy and "Martha" being replaced by a child.

Kreacher is responsible for the orphans being crippled

It's rather suspicious that practically all of the orphans possess some form of physical disability (with one of the only exceptions being Lisa Beck, who Kreacher would become...fond of at a later period of time). Kreacher's deductions give the impression that he may have been a Bitch in Sheep's Clothing

Philanthropy: People tend to trust kind souls, so I am trying to be one

The deductions later detail that Kreacher would use the orphans as a distraction while he robbed people who would show sympathy to the orphans. It's possible that Kreacher attempts at theft may not always have worked out. In the event that this happened, it would be rather convenient to have a scapegoat to take the blame. At the time, a particular punishment for stealing was to have a limb cut off. So if a citizen of White Sand Street realised they had been robbed, Kreacher could have already planted evidence on the accompanying child, allowing them to take the fall for the crime. Afterwards, Kreacher would likely convince the victim of robbery, or the authorities, that the punished child was only trying to survive, and take them back to the orphanage.

That being said, there are hints in Kreacher's deductions that things were much darker. A diary of an orphan reveals what would happen when a new child was brought to the orphanage.

Treasure: Kreacher said there was a new child who came here tonight. He's lucky, only lost the left side. Veronica said he needed rest. I saw her holding the dirty sheets, covered in red stains. Hope he doesn't miss breakfast tomorrow.

It's possible that Kreacher himself crippled and disfigured the children, in an attempt to obtain sympathy and further income through generous donations from sympathetic citizens and the church. Alternatively, the children were crippled in order to ensure that they were not all adopted, which would leave Kreacher without his source of income. After all, no one wants "damaged goods." If this is the case, his livelihood would have been built on the exploitation and abuse of innocent children.

• Seemingly jossed, as Word of God has confirmed that Kreacher was not responsible for the children's injuries.

Servais/The Magician and/or Naib/The Mercenary are working for Arthur Russell

Servais was assigned to locate Murro/The Wildling. It's very likely that Russell is a very influential man, so it wouldn't be hard for him to pull some strings and grant Servais the fame he so desires. Servais' official background states that Oletus Manor had produced countless famous artists. However, there has been no further evidence that this is true. Furthermore, Servais spends practically all of his screen-time in William/The Forward's diary attempting to locate Murro. Granted we do not yet know his side of the story, but it is rather suspicious.

Additionally, Naib is outright called The Mercenary. Even though he is said to be retired, it's possible that he may be fulfilling a favour, or performing one last job. His character description did say that he came to the manor wondering if it could give him the same experience as that of what he felt on the battlefield. Upon Servais' arrival, Naib either ended up working with an assigned partner, or decided to work with someone affiliated with a group he was familiar with.

• Half-confirmed. Naib's Character Day letter heavily implies that he is working for Russell. Servais, on the other hand, appears to be following the orders of Baron Deross.

Naib/The Mercenary poisoned the corpse of the boar in an attempt to draw out Bane/The Gamekeeper

An official photograph heavily implies that Bane/The Gamekeeper was the hunter for that particular game. We don't know if it was the wine that was poisoned, and Servais' suspicions of Naib's do imply that he might not have played as much of a role in William's death as the fandom initially thought. Naib is a former gurkha, and mercenary, who has gotten used to watching his back. It's possible that he may have realised that there was something dangerous inside the forest. In an attempt to draw this potential threat out, Naib brought the corpse of the boar back inside, proceeded to poison it, and then planted it back outside, believing that Bane would eat it and be poisoned in the process. The reason he chose not to tell his fellow survivors about the apparent threat was because he didn't want to cause everyone to panic. He needed everyone calm and unaware if he wanted to keep everyone safe. He just didn't count on William deciding to eat the boar himself.

William is said to love wine. Given that a number of days have gone by in the manor, it's likely that Naib found out this specific fact about his companion. With the boar already cooked and ready to be eaten by William, Naib may have decided not to risk things spiralling out of control and decided to let William die happy with the taste of his favourite drink on his lips. That being said, there is another reason why he may have let this happened, which is detailed in the theory below.

• Jossed.

Kurt/The Explorer is Naib's Morality Pet

Kurt is special, because he seemingly has no reason for being in this particular group. Freddy, Emily and Kreacher were all connected to Emma, and therefore all played a role in the tragedy of the Beck family. William saw Servais' murder his mentor, Servais would likely want to silence him if he found out about this, and Naib is a Professional Killer who is likely to have performed any dirty work that would be assigned to him by a fellow survivor, or third party. But what role does Kurt play in all of this? Yes, it's possible that he may have killed Murro's boar (and possibly Murro himself) in a schizophrenic episode, which likely hindered with Servais' plans. But that still doesn't seem to be enough to warrant him being invited to the manor. He doesn't appear to have any connection to his fellow survivors, nor has he seemingly committed any sort of crime similar to that of the others. Kurt sticks out because he doesn't seem to have a clear role to play.

Until we remember that both Kurt and Naib served in the army. That Naib is said to have valued the importance of companions. That Kurt, despite his eccentric nature, appears to be a Nice Guy who never judges his fellow survivors. Then the pieces start to come together. Kurt and Naib likely served together and became friends during their time on the battlefield. Naib likely grew protective of Kurt. This feeling would only likely intensify if Naib were to find out about Kurt's struggles with mental illness.

The game is a test for Naib, meant to present him with the choice of remaining a cold-hearted killer, or abandoning his life of bloodshed and becoming a better man. In the event that this is true, let's say that Servais did find out that William knew about his murder. Servais would attempt to convince Naib to get rid of William. Naib would be reluctant to do so. If the poison was indeed located in the corpse of the boar, it's likely that Naib decided to roll with it and let William die. The rest of the story would therefore be dedicated to determining whether Naib could come back from that, and redeem himself. And with Servais plotting, and Bane likely lurking, it's very likely that Kurt would serve as Naib's last link to humanity.

• Jossed. Naib never worked with Servais, had nothing to do with the poisoning and didn't even particularly like Kurt nor served with him. killing Kurt because he suspected he had evidence against him. Naib's humanity link turns out to be his mother, which proves that he has a heart even though he is a killer.

Servais' plan will fall apart due to him being a Politically Incorrect Villain

Assuming him calling William Ellis an "uncivilised barbarian" was referring to the latter being a man of color, then it is clear that Servais Le Roy holds some bigoted views.

Perhaps some time later, Servais wants Kurt dead because he believes that the latter is proving to be a hindrance to his plan. Going off of the previous WMG, Naib would be very reluctant to do so. Possibly then, Servais makes one too many bigoted remarks (about Kurt's mental illness or possibly even about Naib's ethnicity) which would not sit well with Naib and be the last straw for him. This could cause Naib to pull a Heel–Face Turn and cause whatever Servais' plan (which probably relied heavily on Naib's services) was to fall apart.

• Jossed. Servais is a Jerkass, but not a Politically Incorrect Villain and did not work with Naib.

Naib is mixed-race

During the nineteenth century, Britain had colonised a large portion of India, including Nepal. It wouldn't be a stretch to say that Naib's mother, or even one of his grandparents, had a child with a member of the British. If this is the case, Naib would likely be torn between two worlds. That of the white British man, and that of the Nepalese. His white skin would make him stand out from his fellow gurkhas, but his Nepalese roots would likely prevent him from being fully accepted by his white British comrades. It would also certainly explain his belief in the equality of human beings. As a member of both worlds, Naib would have realised that your origins do not determine who you are, or make you inferior or superior to other groups.

Martha/The Coordinator took Henry's last name as part of her alias

Her Character Day letter implies that her name is actually an alias. It wouldn't be a stretch to think that she chose to take the name of her dead lover. After all, Martha made clear in her deductions that Henry had other potential uses than merely being a potential husband. Uses that would likely benefit her desire to find a sponsor and finally achieve her dreams of becoming a pilot.

Fiona Gilman/The Priestess is the most important survivor lore-wise

Fiona's deductions reveal that she may have once experienced a vision of the Apocalypse, and her Character Day letters reveals that she was studying the notes left by Volcker Berglund, who is implied to have come into contact with two Outer Gods. Furthermore, her character background states that she was guided to the manor by a spirit, instead of invited. It's possible that our dear Priestess will have a much larger role to play in the overarching plot.

• Jossed. Novelist and Journalist are the most important and whie Fiona was the Decoy Protagonist of the first phase of game 6.

Mike Morton/The Acrobat attempted to use Murro/The Wildling as a bargaining chip in his deal with Arthur Russell

Fiona's letter gave the impression that Russel and his organisation specialises in studying mysteries and/or the supernatural. Murro's letter contains the detail that a cranium (a brain) was involved in negotiations between Mike and Russell. Now remember that Murro was advertised as a feral child who had spent the first few years of his life in the wild being raised by animals. Scientists during the Victorian era would likely kill for a chance to study his brain, and see how years spent devoid from human contact in the wild altered his brain chemistry and development. If Bernard was the intended target, Mike would possibly inherit control over the circus and legally be allowed to sell one of his attractions to an outside party in the name of science. Said transfer would also likely make it harder for the assassination to be traced back to Mike.

• Murro's official character background details that Murro gave up on trying to fit in with civilised society following unspecified betrayals and struggles. Throughout his deductions, the only other human Murro interacts with is Bernard, who likely wouldn't want his attraction spilling the beans on how he was actually raised. But then remember Mike, who Bernard seemingly adopted, and who went on to become the most popular guy in the circus, which makes it heavily likely that Mike encountered Murro at some point (before or after Murro was forced to perform). It's possible that Mike may have told Murro that he would help him escape from the circus, and convinced him to meet him at an assigned place (where he would then give him to Russell's men). Murro may have then later found out about Mike's true intentions and fled into the forest, having lost all faith in so-called civilised society.
  • Perhaps the kaleidoscope (if canon) was a gift from Mike, imploring Murro to trust him. Or maybe it was a gift from a man Murro encountered, who made him realise what Mike was actually trying to do.
• Jossed. Mike saw Murro as family and is not the one behind Naib having to kill the Wildling as he was already dead at the time.

Even if Mike didn't scar Joker, he thought what to him happened was hilarious

Mike's deductions contain the blurb "Watching a sad face can sometimes bring us dark pleasure". The following part of the deduction details the aftermath of Joker's disfigurement. The aforementioned quote could just be alluding to Joker's former role as a sad clown, trading his humiliation and misery for the audience's enjoyment. However it is worth nothing that Mike was perfectly willing to try and juggle hazardous and dangerous material for his juggling act, which would imply that he might have a rather dark sense of humour, or loose morals. The aforementioned deduction also implies that, even if Mike wasn't responsible for what happened to Joker, he definitely didn't seem to have any sympathy for him (he seemed to be more bothered by the fact that he would need to get a new bottle of acid to replace the one he lost). Maybe what happened to Joker was somehow cathartic for Mike, or maybe it was an excuse for a quick laugh.

Either way, if this is the case, it is highly unlikely that Joker was happy.

• Jossed by Mike's third letter that reveals he was Good All Along.

Arthur Russell is Aesop Carl/The Embalmer's father

Aesop's Character Day letter reveals that his real surname begins with an R, and that his biological father was a well-regarded gentleman who, despite this fact, did not gain custody of his son following Aesop's mother's apparent death. Now who do we know that has a surname starting with the letter R, is likely well off, and has an aura of mystery surrounding them?

• That assumes Aesop's parents were married — we find out his mother's initials, not necessarily his father's.

Norton Campbell/The Prospector encountered a supernatural creature in the mine

In a piece of official concept art for the Golden Cave map, a giant glowing eye, that appears to belong to some kind of enormous creature, can be seen. It's been said that interaction with the meteorite negatively altered Norton's mind. This kind of thing is something that commonly occurs whenever a mortal comes into contact with an Outer God. And beside, it's not the first time a supernatural entity with {{MindRape}} abilities has arrived on Earth inside a meteorite.

Jose Baden/The First Officer's father was a former pirate who was made a Privateer by the British Crown

Jose's very first deductions reveal that he and his father were given new identities when they were (presumably) recruited to serve the Queen of England. A deduction reveals that the Badens have "demons flowing through their blood." This would imply that the Baden family has a violent history. And given that they apparently sailors before being given new identities, it's not a stretch to believe that they were once violent pirates. It's also worth noting that, no matter what unspecified atrocities Jose's father and his crew committed while on a voyage, they were seemingly never punished. It was not until the Queen suspected that Jose's father had stolen her possessions and cargo that she took action against the Badens. Then remember that the Baden family possessed a pocket watch said to have the power to control the tides. Anyone with that kind of power would be a very useful ally to the British Crown. Perhaps the Queen got word of the Badens, and their allegedly magical accessory, and offered them the opportunity to legally serve under her command. By becoming privateers, the Badens would be able to continue their pillaging and murdering, only this time with full legal authority and the backing of the British Empire.

• It's also possible that Jose's father may have bended the rules a little. A privateer can only officially attack another ship if it is a vessel of a rivalling country. Jose's confession about there being no pirates or storms on their journey gives the implication that his father may have attacked and plundered just about any ship he could. If the Queen were to find out, well, the Badens (or whatever their original family name is) are fearsome pirates. And it's doubtful that the Queen would be reluctant to cover up unsavoury details if Jose's father offered to share his ill-gotten treasures with her and the rest of the British nobility.

Kevin Ayuso/The Cowboy, Jose Baden/The First Officer and Demi Bourbon/The Barmaid were all part of the same group of survivors

All three of these survivors stick out because they are all, in a way, paying for someone else's sins by coming to the manor. It's very possible that this fact is actually what unifies them together as a group.

• A possible fourth member could have been Patricia Dorval/The Enchantress, who suffers a curse that was likely put in place to punish another member of her family.
• Alternatively, Victor Grantz/The Postman, who, in his deductions, is implied to have been witness to criminal activities, including arson and the apparent murder of a officer of the law.
• Or, possibly, Vera Nair/The Perfumer, who would likely serve as the Token Evil Teammate of the group, given that she is the only one of the four to personally responsible for the tragedy that occurs in her deduction. The Dovlin recipe is also said to have come from the manor, and Vera/Chloe allegedly accepted the invitation to the manor believing that it would have the ingredients needed to perfect her Euphoria perfume. On top of finding her brother, Demi would also likely want to find out how her brother's miracle recipe came to be, which would give her with which she could connect with the Perfumer.
  • Half-Jossed. José, Vera and Kevin went to the same game (game 5) but Kevin was released before the game started. Demi, on the other hand, participated in the second match of the sixth group.

Patricia Dorval/The Enchantress would find her sinful soul in one of the other survivors

Potential candidates for when/if her diary is released:

• Norton Campbell/The Prospector: Inadvertently responsible for the death of his fellow miners. His life appears to be controlled by both his greed, his envy of the higher classes, and his lust for more in life.
• Margaretha Zelle/The Female Dancer: Potentially responsible for the Moon River Tragedy. She's likely got a lot of blood on her hands if that is the case.
• Jose Baden/The First Officer: Accomplice by Inaction and Sins of the Father.
  • Confirmed

Fourth member of the Hullabaloo Circus survivors group

• Servais Le Roy/The Magician: Orpheus had a vision of him being part of a game where Joker/Smiley Face was the hunter, and he has an unclear interest in Murro/The Wildling.
• Patricia Dorval/The Enchantress: See above theory.
  • Both jossed. Servais's 2021 Character Day letter implies that Servais's game took place after the Hullabaloo game, while Mike's 2021 Character Day letter indicates that only people who had a prior connection to the circus were Survivors in the Hullabaloo game.The fourth member was Violetta/Soul Weaver.

Ann/The Disciple was the woman that cared for Andrew Kress/The Gravekeeper

Because there has to be something that connects the two of them to at least one other survivor or hunter, and it definitely cannot be a coincidence that both are outcasts associated with religion.

• If this is the case, caring for the child considered an "abomination" by others did not make her popular with the rest of the village, and likely only made the villagers more willing to believe that she was an agent of the Devil.
• Jossed. The two don't appear to possess any connection to each other.

There is a degree of truth to the allegations thrown at Luca Balsa/The Prisoner

We still don't have the full story, and it's very possible that what little bits we do have are a case of Unreliable Narrator. Practically all of the survivors have committed some sort of sin, and it can't be a coincidence that Luca's mind, and memories, are said to have been damaged during his physical altercation with his mentor. Maybe his mentor's accusations against him were true, maybe Luca intentionally murdered his mentor, or maybe the allegations made by both men all had a degree of truth to them (the mentor was a plagiarist, and Luca was working with his mentor's competitors).

Luca is his mentor's illegitimate son

Luca's background information reveals that his origins are a complete mystery to the general public. No traces of his family history can be found. It is rather strange that such a famous inventor would allow an apparent nobody to become his apprentice/assistant...Unless he possessed a biological connection to him, and possibly inherited his genius intellect.

• It would also explain why Luca's mentor didn't just fire his apprentice, or have him arrested, during their academic altercations. Maybe Luca had certain information that he was blackmailing him with. Certain information that his mentor wouldn't want getting out the general public.
• Jossed.

Luca's mentor is based on, and shares a similar name to, Thomas Edison

With his electricity based abilities, and the accusations of plagiarism present in-universe within his background, it wouldn't be a stretch to believe that Luca is based on Nikola Tesla. Now what famous inventor, with a history of plagiarism, was linked to Tesla?

• Confirmed. Everything we learn about Alva Lorentz (in particular the implication that he took credit for a coworker's idea) points to him being based on Edison. Furthermore, his first name, Alva, was the real life Edison's middle initial.

Jerry Carl was directly responsible for the death of Aesop's mother.

Considering how he was quite elderly at the time, he most likely realized that he didn't have much time left on Earth and would have to pass on his role as an embalmer/serial killer onto someone else. Since he was acquainted with Aesop's mother, it is possible that he saw an opportunity in the young boy. Possibly so that Aesop's mother wouldn't suspect any foul play, Jerry most likely slowly poisoned her, all the while pretending to help her. After her death, he most likely took advantage of young Aesop's emotional vulnerability to win him over.

Eli's owl is the actual Brooke Rose

Given that Hastur and Yidhra exist in this universe, this doesn't sound too out of bounds. Due to the fact that she can also see visions, can contain souls, and seems fully aware about how Eli broke his oath, it is clear that she isn't any ordinary owl. In addition, in Welsh mythology, Blodeuwedd/Blodeuedd (Brooke Rose's actual name in the myth) was made from flowers and was brought to life through magic, possibly explaining the owl's abilities.

• In his Character Day letter, Eli tells the player about the myth and how after she was transformed into an owl, Brooke Rose's husband declared that she would hostile towards all other birds and that they would show her no mercy. It is possible that she stuck around Eli after he took care of her because he was the first one to show kindness to her in a long time. And after he broke his oath and lost his abilities, she most likely stayed by his side because she knew what it was like to break an oath and wanted to help him get through it so he wouldn't suffer the same fate as her (possibly also as atonement for her past actions).

If Margaretha and Sergi were indeed responsible for the Hullabaloo massacre, then that event caused their separation

Assuming that Sergi was the one who was physically abusing Margaretha, she might have put up with it due to real life tactics where abusers make the victim believe that they deserve said abuse. However, after killing the members of the circus, she probably saw his true colors and soon separated from him.

• Jossed. Joker was the one who burned down the circus, and Margaretha's relationship with Sergi ended because Sergi died.

Freddy Riley's plan was going to fall apart even if Martha did stay with him

When you take a closer look at laws surrounding debts, for both today and the Victorian Era, you start to realise that Freddy likely isn't as smart as he thinks he is. It's likely that Freddy believed that sole responsbility of the debt would be on Leo's shoulders, and he and Martha would be able to live out their lives trouble free. The problem is, whenever a debt owner dies, their debts are transferred to their estate and/or closest living relative. And even if Leo hadn't taken his own life, he would have likely gone to prison or be left homeless with the debt still unpaid. Given that the factory had a four-figure debt, it's highly unlikely that Leo's surrounding family would be able to completely pay it off, without giving away everything they had. In the event that this happened, the responsibility of the debt would be transferred to Leo's closest living relative. And given that Lisa was still a child when her father burned the factory to the ground, it's very likely that person would have been Martha. And as her husband, Freddy would likely have to take full responsibility for handling the problem. Now remember that Freddy is said to have been living on meager pay. While he could have had his salary decreased after a Noodle Incident involving a failed lawsuit, it's also possible that he wasn't actually that good at his job as he appeared to be, which would have lead to him being unable to realise the hypothetical consequences of his plan. It's very likely that the only reason the debt didn't transfer to Freddy was because Martha's body was butchered until it was allegedly unrecognisable by Lydia/Emily. Ironically, if this theory is correct, the woman Freddy blames for ruining his life is likely responsible for ensuring that he didn't lose everything he had left.

Emma's fate

Seeing that she burned down a scarecrow (along with Kreacher) this would definitely attract the Hunter's attention. And considering how the Hunter was Leo Beck (her father), there are several possible scenarios that could have played out.

• 1. Leo fails to recognize his daughter, kills her and leaves it at that.
• 2. Leo kills her only to recognize her when it's too late.
• 3. Leo recognizes her and can't bring himself to hurt her so he lets her escape.
  • Confirmed.
• 4. While Leo does recognize Emma and very much does not want to hurt her, the forces behind the manor make him attack her.

Servais/The Magician will get a letter from, or send a letter to Arthur Russell, on his Character Day

Because there's no harm in guessing.The possible focus of the letter may be;

• 1. Russell assigning Servais to travel to Oletus Manor and locate and retrieve Murro.
• 2. It being made clear that Russell is aware that Servais murdered his mentor.
• 3. Servais either being informed that William Ellis/The Forward witnessed him setting up his mentor's death or thanking Russell for providing this information at an earlier point.
• 4. Servais being deceived to travel to Oletus Manor, on the belief that it will contain a way to increase his fame.
  • All jossed.

The second set of diary's survivors will fall victim to Poor Communication Kills

Servais' Character Day letter basically threw everything the fandom thought about what happened in the Forward's diary into question by introducing the possibility that the death of Servais' mentor may have been an accident, and not a pre-planned murder as the majority had previously assumed. Now it is possible that Servais is just lying to Baron DeRoss and this is just an attempt by the devs to mislead the fandom.

However, the central message on which the letter is focused on could possibly be a hint of what the story is meant to be about. Servais brings up the rippling effect; in this case, him being distracted by "the boy" (presumably William) led to him failing to fully prepare the props for the show, which led to his mentor's death. Perhaps the story of this particular game is one centered around miscommunication and how just one action can set off a domino effect that moves the plot forward.

Let us now recall what we know about the four survivors. William was convinced that Servais murdered his mentor, and, if he is aware Servais saw him, was likely fearful that Servais would want to silence him. Servais arrived at the manor late, unsure of who he can trust, and he is most certainly shown to be suspicious of Naib. Kurt, meanwhile, is unable to distinguish his delusions from reality, which may have led to him killing Murro's boar (believing it to be a dragon). And finally Naib, despite seemingly not wanting William to die, made no effort to outright tell William the real reason he shouldn't eat a part of the boar.

From where we left off, one survivor is seemingly dead, and two out of three of the remaining survivors likely have no idea how he died. The only one who does know is unlikely to tell his companions the truth. Servais would very likely suspect Naib to have had something to do with William's death, on top of knowing more about Kurt and Murro than he is letting on, which could lead to them coming to blows. And given that Naib is said to dislike "troublesome clients" while Servais dislikes "being threatened" it's quite likely that the situation would not end peacefully.

• Confirmed. The fourth cards of the 10 game confirm that the lack of communication and secrets were what led to the eliminations of Servais, Murro and Kurt, while also leading to Naib and William being executed by the Gamekeeper.

Emma, the Orphanage and Kreacher

After Leo Beck was tricked into buying the arms factory, he was forced to put Emma into an orphanage, presumably Kreacher's. However, it seems strange that the two of them didn't seem to be familiar with each other initially. It is possible that she was placed in a different orphanage.

Another darker explanation is linked to the psychological trauma Emma suffered there. There have been cases where people have gone through experiences so traumatic that the only way for them to cope is for their brain to erase all memory of them. Considering how she doesn't seem to remember Kreacher, his general behavior towards her, and how Word of God allegedly stated that he didn't injure the children, there are several implications to what that event might have been and they aren't that good (if they are indeed true, then this makes Kreacher even worse of a human being). Alternately, she could have seen first hand what actually was maiming the children and erased her memories of Kreacher due to his association to the place. The reason why Kreacher might have not been familiar with her could either be because it has been years since he's last seen her (and because she changed her name from Lisa Beck) and he doesn't recognize her or he's an Unreliable Narrator.

Naib and Fiona know each other

Both of them are connected to Arthur Russell, and one of Fiona's deductions reveals that she journeyed to Calcutta, the capital of India's West Bengal. Calcutta was founded as an East India Company trading post. The same East India Company Naib served under. Perhaps the two future manor survivors encountered each other at one point in both their journeys.

Naib still received a letter from the Manor

His Character Day letter/telegram is incredibly short and contains absolutely no hint of just how he came to find out about the locations of the "boars". In each of their invitation letters Emma, Freddy and Mike were all informed that somebody they had each been looking for would be present at the manor. It wouldn't be a stretch if Naib received info on Murro's whereabouts on the invitation letter from the manor (assuming Murro is indeed the one he is searching for).

One of the Mechanic's deductions foreshadows a future conversation between her and The Mind's Eye

Given the order that they were released, we can presume that Tracy and Helena were likely in the same group of survivors canonically. Potential additional evidence? This specific deduction:

Unexpected Disaster: You will never understand the fortune of being able to open one's eyes every morning.

Helena, as we can all recall, is legally blind. And given that Tracy is said to have come to the manor because she was fascinated by the fascinating inventions present inside the manor, it's very likely that she would want to talk about them with anyone who would listen. Ignorantly encouraging Helena to take a close look at one of the contraptions could potentially provoke a reaction out of the young would-be scholar.

• An additional note; the above deduction is accompanied by a newspaper clipping that reveals that the family clock shop was blown up, killing Tracy's father. Perhaps the above quote also brought back bad memories inside of Tracy. Memories of a certain past tragedy she was forced to face when she opened her eyes one morning. A tragedy she may have inadvertently been responsible for causing...
• Helena and Tracy's experiment files (which confirm them to have participated in Step 0 and Step 10 of the experiment respectively) heavily imply this to have been jossed.

The letters that Victor sends to Helena are in braille

Considering that Helena is legally blind, this is the only possible explanation as to how she can gain buffs from them when she's decoding alone.

Servais' anger was driven by envy and feelings of resentment over his mentor limiting his actions

Servais did poison the wine, but wasn't trying to kill William

By now, the majority is aware of the image that displays Servais either analysing or tampering with a wine glass. Some believe this to be proof that he poisoned the drink, while others believe it is instead showing him analysing the glass, attempting to figure out just what it was that poisoned William.

For this particular WMG, let's go with the former interpretation, and assume that Servais poisoned the wine, or placed something in the wine glass, in order to get rid of one of his fellow survivors. Ever since Forward's Diary was released, the common consensus was that William was deliberately killed by Servais and Naib (the latter of whom is believed to have been acting on the former's orders).

But what if that isn't the case?

Sure, if we believe William's version of events, that Servais intentionally murdered his mentor and may wish to tie up loose ends, we can assume that this was a clear case of foul play. But then remember Servais' Character Day letter. We are now uncertain whether or not the death of Servais' mentor was actually intentional. Not to mention, when going back and analysing both the letter and everything that occurs in the Forward's diary, things start to become a bit more complicated. We can assume that Servais came to the manor searching for Murro, and nearly everything he does in the Forward's diary (from asking around the manor, to seemingly going over notes on how Murro could have disappeared with Naib) indicates that he may not have been responsible for Murro's disappearance, as previously thought.

So if William wasn't actually a loose end that Servais needed to get rid of, and Murro simply escaped before Servais stepped foot in the manor, what reason would Servais have for getting rid of a fellow survivor?

Let's now remember which survivor Servais spent most of his time in William's diary questioning. A survivor who, judging by the conversation between him and Servais that William spied upon inside the manor, wasn't truly acting on Servais' orders. A survivor who is implied to have also come to the manor searching for Murro.

The survivor who was ultimately the one who provided William with the apparently poisoned wine glass.

Could it be possible that the one Servais intended to get rid of was actually Naib. Could it be that Servais mistrusted the Mercenary enough to believe that he posed a threat to him? Could he have poisoned the wine glass, expecting Naib to drink from it, only to be shocked when it was ultimately William who fell victim to his scheme?

We'll just have to wait and see.

• Jossed. Servais was actually trying to poison a wild rat and is implied to have simply been distracted enough to forgot about doing so upon realising that Naib was away from the dead boar.

One of the main purposes of the game in the second set of diaries is to set up the Hullabaloo Circus game

As of now there are only three Survivors connected to the Moon River Tragedy. And we are aware that one of these survivors was present within another game, and was the apparent target of not one, but two, fellow Survivors. Perhaps Murro had come to the manor at an earlier date than intended, and Servais and Naib were brought in by Baron DeRoss to ensure that he didn't escape before he could participate in the game in which Joker would be the Hunter.

Let us now recall that, when Orpheus was experiencing a recollection of one of the games that was held at the manor, Servais was seen participating in a game in which Joker was the Hunter. Add the fact that the man pictured three times in the "Time is of the essence" card, announcing when the game would begin, bears a slight resemblance to Servais, and it's quite possibly that we may have known who would win the 2nd game from the very beginning. Perhaps Servais failed to escape and was sent back to the manor. Or, perhaps, the evidence of actual magic being utilised at the manor encouraged Servais to either stay in the manor, or return to it at a later date, so as to find a way to obtain actual magical powers. With that set in stone, the Moon River Tragedy game would have its fourth Survivor.

• Expanding on this theory, if we believe that Murro died, or will die, some time during the course of the 2nd set of diaries, it would explain why Lucky Guy was also participating in the same game as Servais. Perhaps the manor owner required a replacement...
  • Jossed. Servais's 2021 Character Day letter heavily implies that the second set of diaries take place after the Hullabaloo game, something with Murro's 2022 letter explicitly confirms.

Margaretha is Michiko's daughter

The majority of the fandom believes that Michiko's Character Day letter revealed that her body was disposed of by Margaretha/Natasha's uncle, Eugene. But what if that isn't the case. In the letter, Eugene requests additional funding from Mr. Donnelly to relocate and finance the storage fee of the "item". It would be rather odd that both Eugene and Mr. Donnelly would go to such lengths just to dispose of a corpse.

Perhaps it wasn't Michiko's corpse that Eugene received. Or perhaps, if he was indeed responsible for the disposal of Michiko's body, there was something extra that was transferred with the corpse.

Recall Michiko's final deduction:

Growth: But before it disappears, where should the body go?

We would first assume that the it mentioned is Michiko's corpse. But then why would this be followed by Miles' father questioning where he should put the body? If the body were to disappear, he wouldn't need to worry where to put it; it would already be gone.Perhaps something happened that made Miles' father realise that the only way he could be rid of his hated daughter-in-law was if she were to die. Perhaps Michiko had produced something that would solidify Miles' belief that she remain his wife.Perhaps she had given birth to his child while he was away on business. And perhaps said child, following her mother's death, was given to an associate of her grandfather and raised to believe that said associate, and his wife, were her aunt and uncle.

• It also can't be a coincidence that Michiko's Character Day revealed that she possessed an unclear connection to the only other character in the game associated with the art of dance. A character who, if you look close enough, bares a bit of a resemblance to her...
• Additionally, Mata Hari, Margaretha's real-life inspiration, was an Asian-European mix-blood.

Jose's father damaged his own ship and had his crew slaughtered in order to paint himself as a Fake Ultimate Hero

What better way to gain the trust and favour of the British Crown than to appear to have risked your life defending his majesty's wealth from marauding pirates. Thing is, these things don't just happen out of the blue and, when they do, are hardly extravagant enough to make you seem like a courageous hero. So perhaps Jose's father comes to the conclusion that, if he and his son are to socially advance, a sacrifice will be required. So he unleashes his the demons present within his family's blood and has his ship damaged and members of his crew slaughtered, all to better sell the narrative that they were attacked by pirates.

Jose was potentially hypnotised at one point

Both the beginning and the end of his deductions contain a phrase that is eerily similar to those used by hypnotists during a show. Perhaps, in an attempt to get his panic attacks under control (and/or possibly make him forget whatever it is his father did) Jose underwent hypnotic treatment.

• It would also explain why Jose tends to fluctuate from praising his family's accomplishments, to being crushed by feelings of self-loathing. Perhaps in the former example, he is just repeating what he has been brainwashed to believe, and the examples of the latter take place in times where his subconscious, fully aware of his family's sins, breaks through the hypnotism.
• Confirmed in his Experiment File.
  • Confirmed.

Dovlin is connected to some sort of supernatural force

It's rather odd that Sam was reluctant to tell his sister the recipe. Sure it might be because he was afraid she would accidentally tell a potential competitor the recipe while drunk, but, given the presence of supernatural deities in the world of Identity V, perhaps the Dovlin drink has a much sinister origin than we once presumed.

Victor's poet friend had something to do with him getting involved with the mob

Perhaps said friend owed a debt to "Big Daddy" and when they couldn't pay it off, the mob made them "disappear". When Victor could't find his friend, the mob told him that they would reveal what happened to the friend if he worked for them.

• Alternatively, Victor had found out what happened to his friend and the mob threatened to kill him as well if he didn't work for them.

The "Final Present" accessory that he has was most likely given to him because the friend knew that they didn't have much time left and wanted Victor to have something to remember them by.

Lucky Guy isn't a real person. He's a placeholder

He's literally called deduction substitute. The reason he has no past, no name, or anything is because he's from the detective's imagination. He's just a theoretical character that the detective places into the story as thought experiments. The reason he's lucky is because the detective has him get whatever item is convenient to help him figure stuff out.

By the time of the Forward's fourth Diary, Servais had become convinced that Kurt was a threat

Fans have assumed that the glimpse of a possible alliance between Servais and Naib, as well as Naib's apparent expression of reluctance and/or remorse over... something, was proof that the two were responsible for William being poisoned. But what if that's not the case. Naib's a mercenary who has been killing just about anyone for money for an undetermined amount of years, and there doesn't appear to be any indication that he and William developed a friendship during their time in the manor. It also can't be a coincidence that the final diary entry, written days after the third one and explicitly mentioned by Orpheus to appear very different from the previous entries, can give off the impression, to some, that William has become less paranoid and scared that Servais and/or Naib may be out to get him.

Perhaps Servais and Naib's argument wasn't about William. Perhaps it was about Kurt. A theory has previously popped up on Twitter that proposes that Murro's boar was the "dragon" that Kurt believed he had slain at one point in his past (as seen in his deductions). It has also been theorised that Naib and Kurt served together in the military and were possibly close friends. Perhaps Servais discovered that Kurt was responsible for killing Murro's boar. This would make Kurt a prime suspect in Murro's disappearance. Perhaps Servais came to believe that Kurt was capable of, and willing to, murder his fellow survivors. Alternatively, Servais may have found out about Kurt's mental illness, possibly from Naib, and believed that he (Servais), as well as the other Survivors, were in danger of being hurt, or even possibly killed, by a man who appeared unable to tell delusion from reality. Servais would then attempt to convince Naib that Kurt needed to go and Naib, if we assume that he and Kurt do indeed know each, would likely be reluctant to do so, especially considering that it, if the assumed nature of their relationship is true, Kurt was likely one of Naib's only friends.

• Jossed. Naib and Servais weren't working together, and their apparent argument isn't acknowledged in the final entry of Servais; diary.

Lisa/Emma was employed by the new owner of the manor.

The Oletus Manor Investigation Report (assuming it can be considered canon) reveals that the new owner of the manor was looking to hire, among other things, gardeners to attend to the manor. Given that we don't know what Lisa/Emma was up to in the time between Lydia/Emily administering electroshock treatment on her and her manor game, we haven't yet been able to figure out just how and when she developed her interest and skills in gardening. Perhaps Baron DeRoss gave Lisa/Emma a job after she came of age (or possibly even before) and taught her everything she needed to know about gardening.

William went looking through Servais' diary

It's worth noting that he's sufficiently less paranoid in his final diary entry and, as we have now discovered via The Magician's Diary, was willing to trust Servais enough to actually try and get a piece of meat from the boar and write entries in their diaries together. Now remember that William's third diary entry begins with him desiring to find Servais' room, and presumably look through his things, so as to discover whether or not Servais wishes to dispose of him. The fourth diary, meanwhile, is said to have been written three days later. Perhaps at one point William did manage to locate Servais' room and went looking through his diary (we know from the Lawyer's Diary that the Survivors tend to keep their diaries in their quarters), and potentially discovered that he may have been wrong about Servais. We know that Servais didn't come to the manor to get rid of William and, following his 2020 Character Day letter, he may not have actually have planned to murder his mentor. Upon finding out this information, most (if not all) of William's previous paranoia would have likely vanished.

• If we also assume that Servais caught William looking through his diary, or going through his things, it could provide a potential explanation for why he deems William to be "annoying" in his final entry, despite, from what we've seen, barely interacting with him.

Baron DeRoss is manipulating Kurt

Following the Magician's Diary, Kurt has been cast in a rather sketchy light. Several of the things shown in the Magician's Diary contradict what Kurt has to say about Servais in the Forward's Diary (e.g. Servais spending all of his time asking questions about Murro, and calling Kurt crazy and William a simple-minded barbarian). Then there's the fact that he stabs Servais for seemingly believing him to be a lunatic if the player chooses to have Servais interrupt him. Now a lot of this is believed to be a case of Kurt and/or Servais (or possibly even Orpheus) being Unreliable Narrators. But what if there's another explanation for all of this.

We currently don't know Kurt's exact reason for coming to the manor. William's rumour has been shown to be accurate, while Naib and Servais are both implied to have come to the manor searching for Murro. But Kurt's reason for joining the game is currently ambiguous. His rumour claims that he joined the game fully knowing that it would be life-or-death. It's pretty clear that William is completely unaware of this fact, and it's highly unlikely that Servais is aware of the true purpose of the game.

Kurt's last known location, prior to coming to the manor, was the White Sand Street Asylum, which, as we learn from Robbie's 2020 Character Day letter, Baron DeRoss was involved with at one point. Perhaps the baron pulled some strings to have Kurt released and invited him to participate in a game he was holding at his manor.

However, the theory doesn't end there. A rather inquisitive member of the fandom has theorised that Kreacher's role in the first set of diaries was to serve as a "traitor", working to make things more difficult for the other Survivors on orders of the manor owner (which could potentially explain why he made the poisoned pie, had a room on the second floor and apparently had the keys to the doors in the manor). Perhaps it is Kurt who plays the role of the traitor in the second set of diaries, deliberately stirring up tension between the survivors so as to pit them against each other and make it easier for the hunter and/or the baron to get rid of them.

But hang on, you're probably asking. Why would Kurt do this? Has it not already been established that he is a kind and non-violent Loon with a Heart of Gold?

To try and answer this question I direct your attention to Kurt's 2020 Character Day letter. Keep in mind that Lorraine technically stresses that Kurt is currently non-violent, but that his mental state was deteriorating and his delusions were increasing. It is also worth noting that Lorraine mentions that Kurt could potentially pose a danger to society through conspiracy with others. Perhaps Baron DeRoss has manipulated Kurt into believing that he is playing the role of the hero, getting rid of the other "evil" survivors for the greater good. Keep in mind that Naib is a Professional Killer who has come to the manor for unclear reasons and Servais has long been suspected to have murdered his mentor, and has also unknowingly made himself look suspicious via his investigation on Murro's whereabouts and his Accidental Murder of William. Or, perhaps, DeRoss has simply convinced Kurt that he needs to get rid of the others if he wants to have a better chance of surviving, and winning, the game.

• Potential additional piece of evidence for the traitor theory; Kurt and Kreacher just so happen to have stayed in the same room during their time in the manor.
  • Seemingly jossed with the release of Kurt's 2022 Character Day letter. Completely Jossed after his diary was revealed.

Melly, Fiona and Luchino are all members of the same game

Fiona's letter implies that two of the survivors are biologists, and both are the only playable characters working in the field of biology. As five people played the game canonically it is possible that they were playing a game of Blackjack, it is also possible that Luchino completed the transformation as a Evil Reptilian during the match.Or alternatively Luchino would be the Hunter of that game, while the second biologist would be one of his co-workers. It wouldn't be the first time survivors and hunters were directly connected.

• Fiona and Luchino are confirmed to be in the same game. Jury's still out on whether or not Melly was the "other biologist" mentioned in Fiona's second letter.
  • Jossed with Melly

The writer mentioned in Fiona's letter is Hastur

As mentioned above, they are probably playing a game of Blackjack, so it would make sense that one of the survivors was also secretly a hunter.

• Perhaps Hastur was inhabiting the body of Volcker Berglund, or whoever was responsible for writing Lakeside Path.
• Hastur's third letter makes this incredibly likely.

Jose's game involved Wu Chang, But contrary to what we think Wu Chang should protect him

They were playing Tarot

• Half-Jossed. Xie Bian has apparently formed an alliance with José, but it is a form of manipulation and not having to protect him.

Kurt is the person who shouldn't be in the game, not Wildling

Seems to be jossed by Kurt and Murro's third letters.

The consequence of failing Patricia's ritual is not death

The letter implies that Patricia failed her test and was unable to accept her past, so if the consequence was to die she probably wouldn't be alive to do it on someone else. What I mean is that maybe the consequence of losing is being cursed like Patricia is instead of death. It is possible that the writer analyzing her never had the opportunity to know what happened in the event of a failure, as Patricia's teammate was able to redeem themself.

Hunter WMG

Joker saw his scarring as a blessing

It's been revealed that Joker hates crybabies. This likely alludes to his former role as a Sad Clown, implying that I Hate Past Me is being applied.

• One of his Deduction Star 2020 lines imply that this is indeed the case (if you believe that it is referring to the fire that occurred in Joker's lounge, and not the Hullabaloo Circus massacre).

Joker: The surrounding laughter, the released torch, and the burning rooftop. I was instantly relieved as soon as that place went up in flames.

Jack/The Ripper's host originally came to the manor looking for a way to get rid of his Split Personality

However, once given the choice to become a hunter, he realised that he would no longer be able to hurt anymore innocent people if he remained in the manor. As a hunter, he would also technically be killing "sinners", something he would likely to find easy to justify as Necessarily Evil.

Joker's scarring was the inspiration for the means by which the Hullablaoo Massacre was committed by the culprit

Murro's Character Day letter implies that the circus was burnt to the ground. Joker's face was said to have been scarred by a fire that broke out in his personal quarters as a result of having acid poured on his face. Assuming that Serge was the one responsible for scarring Joker, it's possible that this event may have given him an idea of how he could get rid of everyone else in the story. Joker was unlikely to have been happy about having his face scarred. He would definitely have a motive for wanting to murder everyone in the circus, especially by having them die in a fire. Mike's deductions imply that Bernard suspected that he his ward was responsible for Joker's "accident". Mike allegedly possessed violent tendencies, so there was another potential scapegoat to take the blame. Add in Murro, who was desperate to escape the circus, and there were more than enough potential suspects to take the fall for the massacre and give Serge and his wife plausible deniability if the authorities located them.

• Half-Confirmed. The scar inspired Joker himself to burn down the circus.

Violetta/The Soul Weaver was briefly sold to Hullabaloo Circus

Her background mentions that she was sold to a number of third-rate circuses after the audience grew bored with her. It wouldn't be a stretch to believe that she briefly ended up performing for Hullabaloo Circus.

• Seemingly confirmed in her 2021 Character Day letter.

Losing the Deduction Star event to him isn't the only reason Violetta hates Jack

It's nearly unanimously agreed by the fandom that Tracy Reznik was the mechanic responsible for creating Violetta's artificial limbs. Word of God has allegedly confirmed that Tracy was part of a game in which Jack was the hunter, and in which Fiona was the only one to escape the manor. Assuming that the hunters are all bound to the manor, it's possible that finding out that Jack killed her friend made Violetta hate him.

• Jossed. Guard 26 was Tracy's game hunter. Jack was a target of group 2 experiments, while Tracy participated in group 10. Fiona was a member of group 6. It remains to be seen whether Violetta was helped by Tracy before the Manor.

Alternatively, considering how Violetta is considerably one of the less malicious Hunters and Jack is well, Jack the Ripper, it would be pretty understandable for her to hate one of England's most prolific serial killers.

Volcker Berglund is already a pre-established hunter

Specifically, he is Hastur/The Feaster's host. It's very likely that Volcker was the author of Lakeside Trail, and was therefore the one that drew that sigil found by the authorities. Both Hastur and Yidhra have had their powers extremely limited at the manor, and Yidhra can only attack the survivors through the use of her followers. It's very likely that the same scenario applies for Hastur.

• Jossed. The Priestess and Feaster's letters imply that Arthur Byers, a Lakeside politician, is Hastur's host.

Joseph/The Photographer is more closely connected to the manor than the other hunters

Joseph is one of the only few hunter shown to have possessed some form of supernatural power prior to becoming a hunter. He is not a deity like Hastur or Yidhra, nor did he likely make a deal with the devil like Antonio did. Given that Oletus Manor has been said to have visited by many famous artists in the past, it's not hard to believe that Joseph may have visited Oletus Manor at one point, and obtained some form of supernatural power which he used to supernaturally enhance his camera.

• Very likely after his 2021 character day letter mentioned that he left for a far away place and returned with mysterious books, and that it lead to his "becoming crazy" and the disappearance of people in his town.

Yidhra/The Dream Witch's followers are characters that have been mentioned in previous deductions

Candidates include:

• Professor Thompson: Already appears to possess some form of connection to Yidhra.
• Eugene & Martha Hayward: Yidhra's deductions imply that she might have also been connected to whatever was going on in Lakeside Village.
• The children that went missing while visiting Lakeside Village
• Sam Bourbon: No word on what exactly happened to him yet.
• Volcker Berglund: Don't know what happened to him either.
• Darren Berglund: He's already come into contact with a creation of Yidhra's.
• Dolores White: Assuming that she is responsible for killing all of those people at the asylum, it is possible that she had supernatural aid since she's still a child.
• Martha Remington: Yidhra was originally going to be released along with the White Sand Street Asylum map, which was confirmed by Word of God to be associated with Emma.
• Sullivan: Might have some type of connection to Oletus Manor, given that Helena was allegedly going to meet a "friend" of hers there.

Bonbon/Guard 26 was granted sentience by the supernatural forces behind the manor

Because I highly doubt a robot made in the nineteenth century would just be able to develop self-awareness out of the blue without something supernatural having occurred.

• Though, a robot in the 19th century already seems to be something supernatural at first.

Jack/The Ripper previously stayed at the White Sand Street Asylum

Considering how he seemed to be aware of the presence of his Split Personality, it is possible that his host turned himself in so that it could be treated or he could at least find out the source of it. In addition, it would also keep "The Ripper" off of the streets and away from a lot of civilians and maybe he thought that the asylum staff could restrain "him" if he ever got out. There is also a Mini Jack figure in the map itself so it could symbolic in some sort of way. Though it is highly unlikely that he killed all those people in the asylum given that said incident was exclusively mentioned in Robbie's deductions.

Hastur and Yidhra are deliberately restraining themselves

Perhaps they are humoring the forces at Oletus Manor for the time being. Considering their Blue-and-Orange Morality, they might even find the game to be entertaining and want to see what its like to watch Survivors run away in fear instead of just using their full Eldritch powers to kill them off/drive them mad in seconds.

Robbie White/Axe Boy is autistic

His woodchopping hobby can easily be seen as a hyperfixated interest, given that he was implied to have continued to sneak out to do it after the orphanage was transformed into an asylum.

• Robbie's official backstory also states that his parents were (presumably) murdered when he was six years old. In Victorian times when an autistic child had reached this age their parents would have started to notice that their behaviour deviated from other children. They would have usually then have their child institutionalized, on the belief that their child was showing signs of "childhood psychosis" or early onsets of schizophrenia.

Luchino was a professor at Miskatonic University.

Or at least an Expy of it. Given the university's history in the Cthulhu Mythos of both students and staff coming into contact with Eldritch Abominations, this wouldn't be too far of a stretch. Especially considering how Yidhra is heavily implied to be responsible for his transformation.

Antonio's deductions will be about how he made his Deal with the Devil

As the deductions for most of the Hunters describe how they came to be the way that they are.

• Half-jossed. There's nothing in his deductions that explicitly describe/reveal how he made his Deal with the Devil. Depending on how you choose to interpret them, it might not even be in there at all.

Certain elements of Antonio's backstory will be inspired by the real-life Niccolo Paganini's abusive childhood

Niccolo's father, Antonio Paganini, after discovering his son's talent in music, is reported to have forced his son to practice 15 hours a day, and would allegedly force him to go without food and water if he felt that Niccolo wasn't performing to the best of his abilities. The sheer extent of the abuse is said to have led Niccolo to develop both a serious drinking problem and an obsession with fame and money. Antonio's official backstory mentions that Antonio engaged in a hedonistic lifestyle, prior to becoming a hunter. Being forced to treat his music like it was entire life would also easily explain why Antonio is content to let the "rhythms of the world" control him, instead of the other way round.

• Add in the fact that Antonio shares the same first name as Niccolo Paganini's father. Being forced to live up to your father's expectations is already bad enough. Having to do so, while also sharing their name (and thus being forced to uphold their legacy and reputation to an even greater extent) is another thing entirely. The pressure Antonio would have likely experienced, and the mental scars his abusive childhood would have left on him, would make it very understandable why Antonio would be so willing to make a Deal with the Devil.
  • Jossed. Antonio's childhood and adolescence isn't touched on and anything that could possibly allude to the abuse he suffered at the hands of his father, and the mental scars it left on him as a grown man, would likely fly over the head of anyone who is not aware of Niccolo Paganini's troubled childhood and relationship with his father.

Jack played a role in the Moon River Tragedy

Joker's Character Day letter contains the detail that a "Faceless" (of an uncertain amount of importance) was involved in the massacre that occurred. While said "Faceless" could just be alluding to a faceless corpse (likely Sergi's if this is the case), it's still possible that it could be referring to a living person that was present in the circus during the massacre (or who Mike spotted a glimpse of on his way back). Now, who do we know who wears a specific kind of mask that makes them look like The Blank?

• Margaretha was also allegedly going to originally be connected to Jack, before the developers apparently changed her story. Perhaps the developers left something over from that first draft.
• Jossed.

Jack's Character Day letter will revolve around the topic of his murders

As cliché as this sounds, this would make sense as his real-life counterpart is considered one of England's most prolific serial killers.

As for the actual content:

• 1. A letter from Jack to the authorities describing his deeds and mocking them for being unable to catch him. (This could either be taken from the real life Jack the Ripper's letters to the authorities or be a brand new one written for the sake of the game.)
• 2. A report written by the authorities that was released to the public, either about about the murders and where and when they took place or a list of possible suspects.
• 3. A letter written by Jack's host to himself about how the murders are affecting him and what he's going to do about "The Ripper".

• Half-jossed. The letter that the players received on his Character Day was from Jack's mentor about how he will be going in his mentor's place to the Oletus Manor. With that being said, Whistler does mention that his protege would be occupied for a certain amount of time before he can come to the Manor. The same amount of time that the real life Jack the Ripper murders took place...
• Confirmed in the fourth letter, which details one of his crimes against another playable character: Keigan Nicholas Keogh, the Clerk .

Baron DeRoss was the wealthy gentleman who commissioned Galatea

Seeing that her sculpting abilities improved greatly after the commission and how she can create living statues, it is obvious that she received some form of supernatural aid. Now who do we know that was very wealthy and resided in a place with supernatural forces?

• This could also be the reason why she would be at Oletus Manor as she could have come back to improve her skills even more.
• Confirmed.

Bloody Queen is not the real Marie Antoinette

Instead, she's a historian who believes that she is the dead queen under the effects of the hallucinogenic drugs. It explains why her name is Mary instead of Marie, and how her birthday letter is just a record of a historic event associated with the queen. This would fit into the identity theme of the game.

• Half confirmed. It seems that Mary is not Marie Antoinette, but rather Mary de Capet, one of the members of Frederick's ("The Composer") family or Frederick himself acting as if he were her. But she would be a socialite rather than a historian.

Other

The in-game matches are a form of purgatory that the survivors and hunters are trapped in

• This would explain how Survivors can respawn back the mansion after dying.
  • Seemingly jossed after Time of Reunion.

The in-game matches are set in alternate universes

• In the game, you can play as Emily Dyer, Kreacher Pierson, and William Ellis, therefore you can get them to open up the gate and escape. In the Character diaries, all three of them died either during a game or prior to it. Perhaps there is at least one universe where they survive.
  • If this is indeed the case, then there is a universe where Freddy Riley and Servais Le Roy (if he was indeed lying in his Character Day letter) get away scot-free. Oh no.

  • Seemingly jossed after Time of Reunion.

Victor and Violetta's backstories are connected

• The "Big Daddy" guy discussed in Victor's deductions is actually Max, a man who ran a freak show and took in Violetta after she was abandoned under a seat as a baby. Max is cruel and abusive, and it wouldn't be too far out of the question for a man so greedy for power and money to be a mob boss. Not to mention fire is listed as one of Violetta's dislikes, which gives me the idea that it's personal. Now, remind me what happened to Victor's friend? Maybe the circus had some pyrotechnics that were for more than just show behind the scenes...?
  • And let's take this a step further. Tracy's father was killed in a workplace explosion caused by a fire, and this troper recalls it being said that his family believes the fire was intentional. Could he have been killed by the same people who killed Victor's friend?

The Magician's Diary will be released on the same day as an upcoming November Character Day

The release of the Prisoner and Disciple's deductions coincided with the First Officer's Character Day, so it wouldn't be a stretch to believe that NetEase intends on releasing the Diary on a significant date.As for whose Character Day it would theoretically be released on;

• Option A: Lucky Guy's Character Day (November 22): Servais was present in the game seen/imagined by Orpheus in the story mode. Having the Diary being released on this day could be symbolic of the devs finally returning to the original lore of the game.
• Option B: Mad Eyes' Character Day (November 27): It has been revealed that Burke was connected to Bane, who has long been presumed to have been the Hunter for the game in the second set of diaries. Burke is also one of the few Hunters to possess a connection to Oletus Manor prior to his transformation into a Hunter. And remember that Servais came to the manor at the request of Baron DeRoss, the presumed owner of the manor (who Burke likely knows)...
  • Jossed. Magician's Diary was postponed to December.

The crime syndicate mentioned in Luchino's Character Day letter is the same one alluded to in Victor's deductions

It would give Victor a connection to the other parts of the game's lore.

The Survivors and Hunters who have been given Character Traits canonically won their games

Only a few Survivors have been given Character Traits. And it can't be a coincidence that two of these Survivors are characters that have previously been theorised to have won their games.

• If this theory is true then Freddy/Lawyer, Helena/Mind's Eye, Vera/Perfumer, Aesop/Embalmer, Norton/Prospector, Patricia/Enchantress, Jose/First Officer, Demi/Barmaid, and Victor/Postman canonically escaped the manor. Likewise, in regard to Hunters, Violetta/Soul Weaver, Joseph/Photographer, and Yidhra/Dream Witch all canonically won their games.
  • Probably jossed. Considering the implication of the 2021 Servais letter, Murro/Wildling survived to his game.
  • Now completely jossed. Naib's 2021 letter directly states that he and William escaped from the mansion.

What year did the games take place

Math implies that the first set of Diaries took place in July 1899. However, we are currently at a loss for when exactly the second set of diaries took place. The presence of Gulliver's Travels, Kurt's most prized possession, and the implication that Bane (one of the Hunters more closely associated with Oletus Manor) was the Hunter for that particular game, also makes it unclear whether the second set of diaries took place before or after the first set.

However, if we believe that the second set of diaries did indeed take place after the first set, then math, and knowledge of the real-life historical figures that two key Survivors are inspired by, may provide us an exact date for when the second set of diaries took place.

The real-life Servais Le Roy was born in 1865. The Oletus Manor Investigation Report, likewise, reveals that Servais was 35 years old when he arrived at the manor. William Webb Ellis, however, was born in 1806, and is said to have only been 28 when he arrived at the manor. However, if we add William's age to the date that the real-life William Webb Ellis died, both answers match up.

If we assume that the second set of diaries did indeed take place after the first set, then the second set of diaries took place in December 1900.

• Looking unlikely, given the implications, from both Orpheus's age and what we know from the beta backstory, that the "final game" took place in June 1899.
  • Though if we assume that the age given to Orpheus (24) was from the period of time where he managed to "fake his death," and that his age given on his medical record from the Oletus Manor Investigation Report (30) was his age during the "final game" then the game seen in the Time of Reunion event may have actually taken place in June 1905.
• Kurt's third letter confirms that the second set of diaries took place after the first set.