- Primary evidence - Brody got tortured by Abu Nazir, while Carrie procured women for Abu Nazir. She's smokescreening.
- She had an asset who was working for/sleeping with a Saudi Prince, not Nazir- if the call-girl contact is what you're referring to.
- Carrie recruited an asset-in-place who happens to be a member of a Saudi prince's harem. Said prince having a connection to Abu Nazir is incidental. Also, said asset was already a member of the Prince's harem when Carrie recruited her.
- This one's been pretty thoroughly Jossed.
- Uh, he's Jewish, and his wife is Indian and presumably Hindu.
- That's never stopped anyone before. And with him throwing Carrie under the bus as of the Season 3 opener, it would not be unreasonable to suppose that he's got his opportunistic side just as much as anyone else does.
- This one has also been pretty thoroughly Jossed.
- That's never stopped anyone before. And with him throwing Carrie under the bus as of the Season 3 opener, it would not be unreasonable to suppose that he's got his opportunistic side just as much as anyone else does.
- How are their personalities at all alike? Also, Carrie's sister is older than she, while Lisa's sister is younger. Furthermore, Homer is not bipolar, nor is he anywhere near as thin as Carrie's father.
Now let's consider his motives. We know he went through a divorce, apparently a bitter one, and lost custody of his children. An experience like that can be both disillusioning and expensive, either or both of which might be reasons to betray one's country. We also know that he took part in the decision to launch the drone strike that killed the 83 children, and that he was in fact the one who brought in the intel that led to the strike. He also opposed the strike on moral grounds, saying that there was a school there, and that a ground assault would have been preferable. Maybe he feels guilty, which would also provide a reason for him to betray his country.
Here, however, is the smoking gun: somehow Nazir knew the identities of those responsible for the drone strike, even though the whole thing was covered up very effectively. That means the mole has to be someone who was in on the strike. Who knew about the drone strike, and was in a position to warn Tom Walker, and earlier warn Raqim Faisel? David Estes was the only person who knew about the drone strike, and the identities of those behind it, and was also involved in tracking Faisel and in the meeting with Walker.
Of course, there is the fact that Estes was one of the targets of Nazir's plot; he was in the bunker with Brody in "Marine One." If Estes was willing to die to make the plot succeed, why was Brody even necessary? And if not, why was he there? It's possible, however, that Estes simply didn't know all the details. Perhaps Nazir simply didn't tell him the entire plot, but instead let him believe that Walker's attack was the main one.
- As of the first episode of season two, this guess may appear to have been complicated. On the one hand, someone revealed to Abu Nazir the contents of and combination to Estes' safe. Who else would have known that besides Estes himself? On the other hand, if Estes had the file Nazir wanted in his own safe, why couldn't he himself have given that same file to Nazir? Of course, one could ask that question about anyone: obviously, the mole, whoever he is, was able to find out the contents of and combination to Estes' safe, and pass that information to Nazir. Why couldn't that same person also get the requisite files from the safe himself? The obvious answer was that this was a test of Brody's loyalty. It's quite possible that Nazir already had the file in question. In other words, Estes is still the most likely candidate to be the mole.
- And now he's throwing Saul under the bus. If he wasn't running this whole thing for his own benefit, I'll be shocked.
- Halfway into season 3, and the mole, whoever he was, no longer seems to be operating. That certainly fits this theory.
- It does. Whoever the mole was, chances are s/he was killed in the Langley attack. If it is the writers' intent that Estes was the mole though, they'll be missing a chance for a great moment of revelation if they never have the still-living CIA operatives discover proof (or at least enough evidence to lead to strong suspicion) of it, ideally before the end of Season 3.
- And now he's throwing Saul under the bus. If he wasn't running this whole thing for his own benefit, I'll be shocked.
- Not likely. Hezbollah is an Iranian proxy, and Iran has cooperated with al-Qaeda. A common enemy can sometimes overcome their theological differences.
- Also, though it has been described as an associate of Al Qaeda, Abu Nazir's organization seems to be only loosely associated with the main organization and seems to lean towards Equal-Opportunity Evil alot more than the real Al Qaeda does.
- Abu Nazir even scorned bin Laden as being a "coward". This lends credence to the notion that his organization is at the very least an extreme offshoot of Al Qaeda.
- Jossed after "The Choice". Not now he's widely believed to be a terrorist.
- If the above hadn't happened and the President had picked Brody to replace Walden as Vice-President, the CIA wouldn't have let it happen: At the very least, they'd release the tape, and there'd be sentiment (especially if Estes was still alive) to go farther and kill him, and those who objected to thoughts of killing him wouldn't object if there was a danger of him getting significant political power, as part of the deal was his getting out of public life.
- Pretty thoroughly Jossed at this point.
- If the above hadn't happened and the President had picked Brody to replace Walden as Vice-President, the CIA wouldn't have let it happen: At the very least, they'd release the tape, and there'd be sentiment (especially if Estes was still alive) to go farther and kill him, and those who objected to thoughts of killing him wouldn't object if there was a danger of him getting significant political power, as part of the deal was his getting out of public life.
- Hopefully his grand plan would be above all for a rapprochement between Iran and the United States, as Saul is working for the CIA and not the Mossad. He may also want peace between Iran and Israel to come of his plan (as would be likely to follow if Iran and the USA became friendly), but his first priority will be the USA. Actually, his plan is probably less ambitious, just getting the USA a constant stream of info from Iran's intelligence chief, who could get him anything he wanted from Iran. Javadi would have a hard time being elected Iran's president as he had worked for the Shah before, anyway.
- Confirmed. Javadi is now head of the IRGC, and has been pushing the Iranian government to allow nuclear inspections in exchange for lifting of sanctions. This is clearly the first step in a series of accomplishments Javadi intends to take full credit for if he ever runs for public office.
- However, as Quinn points out obliquely, some people have moral qualms about letting murderers and assassins go free in the service of a greater good. The D.C. cop already mentioned Wikileaks, and in-verse it could be that there is enough information that could be leaked at the wrong moment (well, wrong for Saul).
- Bonus: Her wrench actually ends up drivng Saul's plans more effectively than anything he himself planned; the Iranian government, wracked by a sudden mass break out of paranoid accusation and counter-accusation as the Revolutionary Guard cuts a swathe through the upper echelons (Javadi no doubt has a convenient laundry list of who else he knows is sticking their finger into the till or otherwise doing things the RG considers unacceptable), becomes effectively nonfunctional, clearing the path for moderates to come out of the woodwork and displace the extremists who are too busy figuring out who they want to kill next.