"How cynically enterprising of you."
"If they're wrong, it's no big deal! If we're wrong, we burn in hell!"
— Kyle Broflovski, South Park
Pascal's Wager
was originally a philosophical argument presented by Blaise Pascal in the 17th century in his posthumously published work Pensées. Pascal argued that a logical person should believe that God exists and live their lives as though He does because the potential risks (eternity in hell) and rewards (eternity in heaven) outweigh any losses or inconveniences one might experience in this life by believing in God.
As Pascal's Wager is often cited in media, so too are its counterarguments:
- The wager assumes the distinction between religious or non-religious is binary, where in reality, several contradictory faiths exist: Pascal focused on discussing the relative merits of Christianity, but didn't consider Judaism at all and rejected Islam, along with him dismissing all polytheist religions pretty quickly. If, for simplicity's sake, we assume the existence of two faiths with mutually exclusive conditions to get into heaven, and assume either faith is equally likely to be true, then neither of these faiths are mathematically advantageous over the other.
- While the wager asserts having faith to have a greater expected return, the wager itself provides no evidence for the actual truth behind the faith, and by extension, makes the argument a moot point for anyone thoroughly convinced of their own theology, or lack thereof (e.g. a Muslim would not accept his rejection of Islam so easily).
- The wager is also sometimes argued to promote a purely transactional view of religion: to wit, one would adhere to religious teaching out of fear of retribution or expectation of reward rather than out of genuine belief in the faith's rightness, not to mention the fact that an omniscient God (as Christians generally believe in) would know the petitioner wasn't sincere. In context, Pascal himself noted this flaw, and argued that accepting the existence of God was only the first step to salvation, advising a person to essentially act like they were religious to become that way (e.g. attending services, socializing with believers) by psychological immersion. This might work for some, but probably not all.
Can overlap with Heaven Seeker and Bargain with Heaven. Could be a Freudian Excuse when a character chooses to become The Fundamentalist, a Soulsaving Crusader, or (in more idealistic settings) The Soulsaver. Could count among Logical Fallacies, since it is a consequence-based argument that involves the worst-case scenario. Compare and contrast The Anti-Nihilist.
Compare Emergency Multifaith Prayer. See also Religious Russian Roulette.
Examples:
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Comic Strips
- Calvin and Hobbes: During one Christmas story arc, Calvin questions the existence of Santa Claus to Hobbes (which Calvin compares to his belief in God). Calvin gets worried that if Santa is real, then questioning his existence might get him on the naughty list, so he decides to continue believing in Santa just to be on the safe side.
Calvin: I want presents, lots of presents. Why risk not getting them over a matter of belief? Heck, I'll believe anything they want.
Fan Works
- With This Ring: Paul knows that the gods exist, but like Nanny Ogg from Discworld, he considers that not to be a good enough reason to believe in them, "it only encourages them." Nonetheless, he has made offerings to all of the Olympian gods at some point, because politeness doesn't cost much and might make his life easier.
Films — Live-Action
- This Is the End: Touched upon. As the main characters realize that the Biblical Apocalypse is indeed underway, Seth Rogen admits, "I haven't lived my life as though there was a God, who could've seen that coming?" Jay Baruchel responds, "I'd say about 95% of the world", implying that he thinks most people probably chose to believe in God just to be on the safe side.
Literature
- C. S. Lewis
- The Screwtape Letters: Referenced indirectly through Screwtape. The titular demon tells Wormwood that anything that causes a rift between "The Patient" and God aids the demonic cause, including the argument "Believe this, not because it is true, but because it serves a purpose."
- A variation is in the Narnia book The Silver Chair: The beliefs presented as a binary are belief in just the Underworld, a midnight-black subterrain under a hellish regime run by slavery and fueled by brainwashing, or belief in Narnia and the Overland, where the four heroes originate. The Underworld's dictator enchants them into forgetting memories of their old lives, whilst arguing that they can never know if they dreamt it up or not. To save himself and his friends, Puddleglum then burns his foot and states exactly why he'll believe in Narnia whether it's real or not:
"All you’ve been saying is quite right, I shouldn’t wonder. I’m a chap who always liked to know the worst and then put the best face I can on it. So I won’t deny any of what you said. But there’s one more thing to be said, even so. Suppose we have only dreamed, or made up, all those things-trees and grass and sun and moon and stars and Aslan himself. Suppose we have. Then all I can say is that, in that case, the made-up things seem a good deal more important than the real ones. Suppose this black pit of a kingdom of yours is the only world. Well, it strikes me as a pretty poor one. And that’s a funny thing, when you come to think of it. We’re just babies making up a game, if you’re right. But four babies playing a game can make a play-world which licks your real world hollow. That’s why I’m going to stand by the play world. I’m on Aslan’s side even if there isn’t any Aslan to lead it. I’m going to live as like a Narnian as I can even if there isn’t any Narnia. So, thanking you kindly for our supper, if these two gentlemen and the young lady are ready, we’re leaving your court at once and setting out in the dark to spend our lives looking for Overland. Not that our lives will be very long, I should think; but that’s a small loss if the world’s as dull a place as you say.”
- Discworld: Parodied with an in-universe philosopher who proposed belief in the gods less out of genuine faith and more as a way to hedge your bets. When he died, he found himself surrounded by gods with pointy sticks saying "Here's what we think of Mister Clever Dick around here..."
Live-Action TV
- Inspector Morse: Discussed in "Promised Land", where Morse (having explained Pascal's Wager) argues that by the same reasoning, the man they're interested in won't kill himself, because staying alive is the safer bet.
- QI: Discussed in one episode. David Mitchell pointed out that the flaw lies in treating it as a simple either/or scenario: as he put it, what if there is an afterlife, but only atheists are allowed to go there?
David: Because then you get all the Christians dead. And then, a load of bitter atheists, going "And worst of all, I was wrong!"
- Harry Hill was asked if he believed in God and said he believed just to be on the safe side incase God turned out to exist. Bizarrely he said this while trying to put God into Room 101.
Stand-Up Comedy
- Parodied indirectly in Rowan Atkinson's "Devil Sketch". The Devil is sorting sinners by their sins, and comments when he gets to "atheists" that "You all must be feeling like a right bunch of nitwits." Then he calls on the Christians: "Yes, I'm afraid the Jews were right."
Western Animation
- Rick and Morty: In "Morty's Mind Blowers", Morty remembers being visited by a Proud Warrior Race Guy alien who seeks to be killed by another "warrior" (i.e., Rick) to achieve an orgasmic afterlife as per his religion. Morty assumes that the alien has evidence on his planet on how the afterlife works. The alien then claims he doesn't and has a Freak Out on realizing he doesn't want to die. Then he gets dragged down into hell after a car hits him, killing him instantly. Morty lampshades that there was evidence after all, with horror.
- The Simpsons: In "Faith Off", after Bart says that "I figure I'll go for the life of sin, followed by the presto change-o deathbed repentance", Brother Faith replies that "you're also covered in case of sudden death."
- South Park: In "Do the Handicapped Go to Hell?", Kyle renounces Judaism and converts to Catholicism on these grounds after his friends hear a frightening sermon about hell from Fr. Maxi. He explains to his parents that if Catholics are wrong, they lose nothing, but if Jews are wrong, they go to hell.
