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And if all of that was not enough, yet another racism scandal engulfed the party, with major donor Frank Hester (of c. £10 million - a ''lot'' in British politics) being caught on record observing that black Independent (former Labour) MP Diane Abbott made him want to shoot her and hate all black women. The opposition parties predictably savaged this, while Downing Street hemmed and hawed and tried to figure out how to both condemn this (which they did, eventually, and reluctantly) and keep the money. With this, the rising threat of far-right challengers Reform UK, over 60 experienced MPs stepping down, and polling figures stubbornly showing a Labour lead of between 20 and 25 points - and not down to any particular enthusiasm for Labour, but because the general public have decided they're just ''that sick'' of the Tories. Projections suggest a historic wipeout of as low as 113 seats, and while this would be bad enough (even in the Blair landslide of 1997, the Tories held over 150 seats), worst case projections suggest an unheard of reduction to ''42'' seats[[note]]which would, with the likely division of seats between Labour, the Liberal Democrats and other parties, almost certainly see the Conservatives become only the third largest party in the Commons; this would in turn be the first time in the entire history of the Tories, both modern and historical, that they were neither the government ''nor'' the official opposition[[/note]]. As one MP said frankly, off the record, "we're stuffed." All things told, it is not surprised that in March 2024, Sunak's position became more and more tenuous, and the knives started being sharpened as the Tories started once again indulging in one of their favourite habits - plotting regicide. In this case, to find a leader who could at least diminish the margin of defeat. While no clear rival has emerged, despite the usual rumours of the Return of the Boris and the vague possibility of Penny Mordaunt as a compromise candidate, it's rapidly becoming a question of who'll get Sunak first - the public, or his own party...\\
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And if all of that was not enough, yet another racism scandal engulfed the party, with major donor Frank Hester (of c. £10 million - a ''lot'' in British politics) being caught on record observing that black Independent (former Labour) MP Diane Abbott made him want to shoot her and hate all black women. The opposition parties predictably savaged this, while Downing Street hemmed and hawed and tried to figure out how to both condemn this (which they did, eventually, and reluctantly) and keep the money. With this, the rising threat of far-right challengers Reform UK, over 60 experienced MPs [=MP=]s stepping down, and polling figures stubbornly showing a Labour lead of between 20 and 25 points - and not down to any particular enthusiasm for Labour, but because the general public have decided they're just ''that sick'' of the Tories. Projections suggest a historic wipeout of as low as 113 seats, and while this would be bad enough (even in the Blair landslide of 1997, the Tories held over 150 seats), worst case projections suggest an unheard of reduction to ''42'' seats[[note]]which would, with the likely division of seats between Labour, the Liberal Democrats and other parties, almost certainly see the Conservatives become only the third largest party in the Commons; this would in turn be the first time in the entire history of the Tories, both modern and historical, that they were neither the government ''nor'' the official opposition[[/note]]. As one MP said frankly, off the record, "we're stuffed." All things told, it is not surprised that in March 2024, Sunak's position became more and more tenuous, and the knives started being sharpened as the Tories started once again indulging in one of their favourite habits - plotting regicide. In this case, to find a leader who could at least diminish the margin of defeat. While no clear rival has emerged, despite the usual rumours of the Return of the Boris and the vague possibility of Penny Mordaunt as a compromise candidate, it's it seemed to rapidly becoming become a question of who'll who'd get Sunak first - the public, or his own party...\\
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However, this was not to be, despite a spectacular defeat in the May local elections, where the Tories lost almost ''half'' their council seats, shedding votes to Labour, the Liberal Democrats, and Reform (in the Red Wall, in the Blue Wall, and among the far-right of the party, respectively), watched Sadiq Khan stroll to an unprecedented third term as Mayor of London, and fell to third behind the Liberal Democrats in terms of Council seats held, as well as losing several mayoralties. While Ministers desperately tried to tout the retention of the Tees Valley Mayoralty by Ben Houchen as a major victory, this fell rather flat when it was pointed out that Houchen's campaign had spent a very great deal of effort trying to distance itself from the national government, instead running on personal popularity - and even then, the swing to Labour had been nearly 20%, taking a very large chunk out of a previously massive majority. As was also pointed out, the local councils all fell like bowling pins, and even 'just' a twenty point swing would swing the vast majority of Tory seats. The messaging shifted to hopeful predictions of a hung Parliament with Labour as the largest party, an attempt to reuse the 'Coalition of Chaos' messaging from the 2015 election, based on Labour having gained 34% of the vote to the Tories 25%. This fell flat even among Tory [=MPs=]. In short, local elections and national ones work very differently in the UK, and at general elections, voters tend to opt for one of the two big parties, or for whichever vote screws over the party they ''don't'' want in power (something that the Liberal Democrats tend to exploit in Lib Dem-Conservative marginals). While no move against Sunak seems imminent, this is more due to a belief that it wouldn't do any good. A sense of gloom remains over the party, and defeat seems only a matter of time...\\
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However, this was not to be, despite a spectacular defeat in the May local elections, where the Tories lost almost ''half'' their council seats, shedding votes to Labour, the Liberal Democrats, and Reform (in the Red Wall, in the Blue Wall, and among the far-right of the party, respectively), watched Sadiq Khan stroll to an unprecedented third term as Mayor of London, and fell to third behind the Liberal Democrats in terms of Council seats held, as well as losing several mayoralties. While Ministers desperately tried to tout the retention of the Tees Valley Mayoralty by Ben Houchen as a major victory, this fell rather flat when it was pointed out that Houchen's campaign had spent a very great deal of effort trying to distance itself from the national government, instead running on personal popularity - and even then, the swing to Labour had been nearly 20%, taking a very large chunk out of a previously massive majority. As was also pointed out, the local councils all fell like bowling pins, and even 'just' a twenty point swing would swing the vast majority of Tory seats. The messaging shifted to hopeful predictions of a hung Parliament with Labour as the largest party, an attempt to reuse the 'Coalition of Chaos' messaging from the 2015 election, based on Labour having gained 34% of the vote to the Tories 25%. This fell flat even among Tory [=MPs=]. In short, local elections and national ones work very differently in the UK, and at general elections, voters tend to opt for one of the two big parties, or for whichever vote screws over the party they ''don't'' want in power (something that the Liberal Democrats tend to exploit in Lib Dem-Conservative marginals). While no move against Sunak seems imminent, this is more due to a belief that it wouldn't do any good. A sense of gloom remains over the party, and defeat seems only a matter of time...\\
