History Main / PropheticFallacy

** Also the prophecy [[spoiler: "the father will kill the son"]], which drove multiple episodes in the back half of the third season, was [[spoiler:faked by the [[DirtyCoward demon Sahjhan (who, upon revealing this, taunts "read any good prophecies lately?") because the true prophecy was "the son would kill Sahjhan"]]]]. When Wesley goes to one of the Loa for clarification, he is told that the vampire will certainly devour his child. [[spoiler: Angel's blood supply from the butcher had been spiked with Connor's blood by Wolfram & Hart and at the season 4 finale, Angel 'kills' Connor: he destroys Connor's true identity, giving him a fake one to save his sanity by giving him a normal family life, one that carries no memory of his real lifel]].

* A sort-of example: in the ExpandedUniverse series of ''StarWars'' novels called the ''NewJediOrder'', the enemy are ScaryDogmaticAliens, the Yuuzhan Vong. One note about the Vong is that twins are exceedingly rare--and their religious beliefs indicate that one will always kill the other. They are intrigued not only by Luke Skywalker and Leia Organa Solo, but by Leia's children, Jacen and Jaina. To that end, they attempt to ''make'' it happen, by capturing one and them inducing them to kill the other. This in fact leads to their downfall, as with a little help from a spy, Jacen, not only is able to fake loyalty to the Yuuzhan Vong, but learns a number of Force uses that become instrumental in the war, but also that he corrupts a critical piece of Vong biotech.

* The ''Franchise/StarWarsExpandedUniverse'' "[[TheThrawnTrilogy Thrawn]]" trilogy has this kind of prophecy from the insane Jedi Master Joruus C'Baoth. He prophecied that Mara Jade would become his apprentice because he saw a vision of her [[KneelBeforeZod kneeling before him]]. Turns out that Mara "kneels" [[spoiler: in order to duck under C'Baoth's Force Lightning and chop him in half with her lightsaber.]]

* ''Flashforward'' by Robert J. Sawyer plays with this trope and adds a tragic twist to it. AppliedPhlebotinum briefly transports the mind of everyone on Earth to the future, giving everyone a short "vision" of what is to come. Believing this means the future is predestined, people make assumptions based on what they saw themselves doing in the future. Some start doing whatever their future selves did while others are devastated by their visions. This drives one character, who wanted to be a writer but saw himself as a bus boy, to commit suicide, ironically proving that the future wasn't predestined anyway. It's also implied he was working as a bus boy [[ItsForABook for book research]].
* A subversion in ''Literature/GoodOmens'' by Creator/TerryPratchett and NeilGaiman. One of the main characters owns a book of prophecies made by a distant ancestor that's been passed down from generation to generation. Every last prophecy is perfectly accurate--but pronouncedly unclear. The subversion is that this character, and generations previous, were fully aware of this, and it became a sort of family business to try and decipher them. This wasn't an easy job, since the best explanation that she can give another character was that Agnes Nutter, the original seer, was looking at things she didn't understand through a very small metaphorical tube, in no discernible order, and so while things often slot into place afterward (some in time to do some good even, like, "Dont buye Betamacks"), until then what anyone ''thinks'' the original seer was predicting is as good a guess as anyone else's.

** There's also the entirety of the Fortune Teller episode, which SEEMS to be leading this way. Everything she prophesises is either incredibly vague or self-fulfilling ("I'll meet my wife on the day I wear red shoes, so every day I wear red shoes!" type of self-fulfilling.) Then she makes a series of predictions that not only fly in the face of logic concerning the local about-to-erupt volcano, and everyone adopts a very DyingLikeAnimals approach, namely sheep. It gets so bad that the Gaang has to fly up and literally rearrange the clouds to get her to change her prophecy, which FINALLY gets everyone off their asses, proving that her initial prediction was the wrong one.... The subversion, pointed out explicitly by her, is that it ended up that everything turned out literally as she predicted (the village itself was ''not'' destroyed by the volcano).

* In ''NausicaaOfTheValleyOfTheWind'', the prophecy of the Blue-Clad One refers to a great leader, a bird perched on his shoulder, appearing from a field of gold to lead the nations to peace and unity and save them from the Sea of Corruption. What it actually foretold was [[spoiler:Nausicaa, her [[DressingAsTheEnemy Dorok tunic]] stained deep blue and indigo from a baby Ohmu's blood, being lifted high into the air by the shining, golden feelers of innumerable Ohmu, her long and bushy-tailed squirrel-fox Teto on her shoulders]].

* The ''Franchise/StarWarsExpandedUniverse'' "[[TheThrawnTrilogy Thrawn]]" trilogy has this kind of prophecy from the insane Jedi Master Joruus C'Baoth. He prophecied that Mara Jade would become his apprentice because he saw a vision of her [[KneelBeforeZod kneeling before him]]. Turns out that Mara "kneels" in order to duck under C'Baoth's Force Lightning and chop him in half with her lightsaber.

* In the ''Series/RedDwarf'' episode "Cassandra", the eponymous computer predicts that Rimmer will die of a heart attack. However, he notes that Cassandra does not know that he's Rimmer, and tricks a crewman into wearing his jacket (with nametag). Sure enough, the crewmember dies. (Also a SelfFulfillingProphecy: he dies of a heart attack brought on by the stress of being told he's going to die of a heart attack).

** Furthermore, she has two visions where she sees the Inquisitor [[spoiler: standing over her body and leading the Empire into a new future]]. However, her vision fails to take into account the possibility that [[spoiler: her plan to steal the Inquisitor's body would fail and that it's ''her'' possessing the Inquisitor's body at the time. She herself ends up trapped in Khem Val's body and unable to raise a hand to her former apprentice, watching as they later ascend to the Dark Council]].

* ''Series/BabylonFive'': "If you go to Z'Ha'Dum, you will die". [[spoiler:[[BackFromTheDead For a while, anyway]]...though even so, [[LivingOnBorrowedTime afterward, his days are numbered]]]].

* In the ''Webcomic/SchlockMercenary'' story "A Hand of Acey's" (this story is a parody of Series/CSI), the evidence robot takes a look Acey Nubs' corpse (shot through the chest with a very heavy energy weapon), and confidently predicts the verdict will be "attempted suicide!" The truth is that [[spoiler: A clone of Acey's attempted to murder him, and the corpse is that of the clone, which Acey himself killed in self-defense before disappearing]].

* In the ''Webcomic/SchlockMecenary'' story "A Hand of Acey's" (this story is a parody of Series/CSI), the evidence robot takes a look Acey Nubs' corpse (shot through the chest with a very heavy energy weapon), and confidently predicts the verdict will be "attempted suicide!" The truth is that [[spoiler: A clone of Acey's attempted to murder him, and the corpse is that of the clone, which Acey himself killed in self-defense before disappearing]].

For example, a man might see himself being knocked down by a car and note that the time on a digital display is 10:21, then spend the entire episode trying to avoid going near a road, despite various events conspiring to put him in danger. He eventually makes it to 10:22 and thinks he is safe, but is knocked down an hour or so later and discovers that he saw the digital clock in a mirror and his actual time of death is 12:01.

* Overlapping with the self-fulfilling variation, the wizard whose prophesies form the narrative of the [[ThereIsNoSuchThingAsNotability Myth 2 mod ''The Seventh God'']] can see everything about the war but the identity of the BigBad, a foreigner who had united the scattered goblin tribes. He tries to prevent the game's events by traveling to their lands and trying to unite them and "lead them to greater glory." This trope is actually a rule of prophesies in the setting, as seers can't see their own future.

For example, a man might see himself being knocked down by a car and note that the time on a digital display is 10:51, then spend the entire episode trying to avoid going near a road, despite various events conspiring to put him in danger. He eventually makes it to 10:52 and thinks he is safe, but is knocked down an hour later and discovers that he saw the digital clock in a mirror and his actual time of death is 12:01.

** Even the elves get in on this. Glorfindel foresees that the Witch-King will fall "[[NoManOfWomanBorn not by the hand of man]]," without mentioning that he will fall by the hand of a woman.

** Also relating to Mara was the order/prophecy/hypnotic compulsion the Emperor issued her [[spoiler: that she would kill Luke Skywalker. It turned out to be his clone]].

* A subversion in ''Literature/GoodOmens'' by Creator/TerryPratchett and NeilGaiman. One of the main characters owns a book of prophecies made by a distant ancestor that's been passed down from generation to generation. Every last prophecy is perfectly accurate-but pronouncedly unclear. The subversion is that this character, and generations previous, were fully aware of this, and it became a sort of family business to try and decipher them. This wasn't an easy job, since the best explanation that she can give another character was that Agnes Nutter, the original seer, was looking at things she didn't understand through a very small metaphorical tube, in no discernible order, and so while things often slot into place afterward (some in time to do some good even, like, "Dont buye Betamacks"), until then what anyone ''thinks'' the original seer was predicting is as good a guess as anyone else's.

* ''Series/BabylonFive'': "If you go to Z'Ha'Dum, you will die". [[spoiler:[[BackFromTheDead For a while, anyway]]]].
** Londo Mollari had a vision of his own death: when he is an old man, he and a Narn will strangle each other to death.When he meets G'kar, Londo recognizes him as the Narn from the vision and treats him as a personal enemy (it didn't help that their people had been enemies for decades). [[spoiler: While this occurs exactly as Londo saw, he misread the ''context'': he and G'kar are no longer enemies, and G'kar killing him is an act of mercy because Londo's "[[PuppeteerParasite Keeper]]," will not let him [[ICannotSelfTerminate kill himself]]. He strangles G'kar because the Keeper wakes up and tries to defend itself.]]

** There's also the entirety of the Fortune Teller episode, which SEEMS to be leading this way. Everything she prophesises is either incredibly vague or self fulfilling ("I'll meet my wife on the day I wear red shoes, so every day I wear red shoes!" type of self-fulfilling.) Then she makes a series of predictions that not only fly in the face of logic concerning the local about-to-erupt volcano, and everyone adopts a very DyingLikeAnimals approach, namely sheep. It gets so bad that the Gaang has to fly up and literally rearrange the clouds to get her to change her prophecy, which FINALLY gets everyone off their asses, proving that her initial prediction was the wrong one.... The subversion, pointed out explicitly by her, is that it ended up that everything turned out literally as she predicted (the village itself was ''not'' destroyed by the volcano).

** ''Discworld/Jingo'': Nobby Nobbs chooses to take the cheap version of a genuinely magical fortune teller's vision in the crystal ball, which is just asking for this trope. She sees him surrounded by women who like him. It turns out this only happens because he'll be dressed as a woman himself at the time.

* The ''Literature/{{Discworld}}'' book ''Discworld/InterestingTimes'' references Croesus (below). A seer, who, as he's on the Discworld, probably has a decent batting average, is completely flummoxed by a demand to predict the outcome of a battle, which is understandable as Lady Luck, several billion chaotic-system-generating butterflies, and Rincewind ("With him here, even uncertainty is uncertain") are all in the immediate vicinity. Knowing that he would be put to death for admitting it, he says only that "a decisive victory would be won" -- neglecting to mention who would be the victor.
** Even then, he almost doesn't get away with it; Lord Hong demands to know if he's sure, and he only manages to escape by pretending to get indignant: "What, so you're the seer now? You can see what the liver means just here? I suppose you know all about this green wobbly bit over here!"
* In the ''Literature/TheLordOfTheRings'', Denethor sees the coming of the Black Fleet in the Palantír, and loses hope for Gondor defending itself against the onslaught from Mordor. Aragorn saw the same and went on to commandeer said ships, fill them with the now-unoccupied soldiers from southern Gondor, and helps turning the tide in Gondor's favor.

*** WordOfGod claimed that this was inspired by Theatre/{{Macbeth}}: Tolkien always thought that the quibble about Macduff not being "a man of woman born" was too inelegant, and it would have been much more satisfying if Macbeth had simply been killed by a woman. Similarly, the Last March of the Ents comes from Tolkien's disappointment that Birnham Wood didn't ''literally'' march on Macbeth's castle.

* In ''VideoGame/StarWarsTheOldRepublic'', it's revealed that Darth Zash chose the Sith Inquisitor as her apprentice due to having foreseen them in a vision where they quiet the spirit of Lord Kallig, who's influence has killed or driven mad nearly every soul to enter the Dark Temple on Dromund Kaas. She doesn't realise however that this was because the Inquisitor has the rare ability to draw forth [[{{Necromancer}} Force Ghosts]] and is a direct descendant of Kallig himself, who had long been [[CrazyPrepared awaiting]] their arrival.
** Furthermore, she has two visions where she sees the Inquisitor [[spoiler: standing over her body and leading the Empire into a new future]]. However, her vision fails to take in account the possibility that [[spoiler: her plan to steal the Inquisitor's body would fail and that it's ''her'' possessing the Inquisitor's body at the time. She herself ends up trapped in Khem Val's body and unable to raise a hand to her former apprentice, watching as they later ascend to the Dark Council]].

* In ''VideoGame/StarWarsTheOldRepublic'', it's revealed that Darth Zash chose the Sith Inquisitor as her apprentice due to having foreseen them in several visions, the first being their quieting the spirit of Lord Kallig. She didn't realise however that this was because the Inquisitor has the rare ability to draw forth Force spirits, as well as being the direct descendant of Kallig himself.
** Furthermore, she has two visions where she sees the Inquisitor [[spoiler: standing over her body and leading the Empire into a new future]]. However, her vision fails to take in account the possibility that [[spoiler: her plan to steal the Inquisitor's body would fail and she that it's ''her'' possessing the Inquisitor's body at the time. She herself ends up trapped in Khem Val's body and unable to raise a hand to her former apprentice, watching as they later ascend to the Dark Council]].

* In the ''Literature/TheLordOfTheRings'', Denethor sees the coming of the Black Fleet in the Palantir, and loses hope for Gondor defending itself against the onslaught from Mordor. Aragorn saw the same and went on to commandeer said ships, fill them with the now-unoccupied soldiers from southern Gondor, and helps turning the tide in Gondor's favor.
** The Palantir does this a lot. Among other things, it also tricks Sauron into attacking Aragorn.

* This happens a fair bit in TheDeadZone, with Johnny getting visions where the intended target/victim is unclear or he jumps to the wrong conclusion about what he is seeing because he doesn't know what he's seeing is incomplete. A particularly good example occurs when he has a vision of himself [[spoiler: killing a stranger]] and the clues lead him to believe Sarah or JJ are in danger ([[spoiler: the victim is really Bruce and it's a complete accident.]]) At the end of the episode, Johnny laments that he just sees flashes of events out of context which makes trying to predict (and prevent) the future very difficult.

** Also the prophecy [[spoiler: "the father will kill the son"]], which drove multiple episodes in the back half of the third season, was [[spoiler:faked by the demon Sahjhan (who, upon revealing this, taunts "read any good prophecies lately?")]]. When Wesley goes to one of the Loa for clarification, he is told that the vampire will certainly devour his child. [[spoiler: Angel's blood supply from the butcher had been spiked with Connor's blood by Wolfram & Hart and at the season 4 finale, Angel 'kills' Connor: he destroys Connor's true identity, giving him a fake one to save his sanity by giving him a normal family life, one that carries no memory of his real lifel]].

** And ''assuming'' he was able to ScrewDestiny either way, that idiot Eqquibus produced powerful enemies like [[RealityWarper Extirpon]] by accident. So even if Arfaas ''won'', his victory would be short-lived - and at the mercy of a ''whole universe'' full of unfriendly super-beings!

* Done on a galaxy-wide scale in the ''HorusHeresy'' novels. Whilst on the brink of death, Horus is shown a vision of the future where his father, The Emperor of Mankind, is worshipped as a god across the entire galaxy. He "visits" a world devoted solely to the Emperor's worship and sees the statues devoted to him and the (as yet unaware) loyalist Primarchs. Taking this as proof that the Emperor wanted to install himself as a god, Horus launches a galaxy wide rebellion that would eventually cause the very future he saw. Subverted in that he was never alive for long enough to see it happen.