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* ''{{Persona 3}}''. [[spoiler:After his [[TheReveal Reveal]] as TheChessmaster, Shuji Ikutsuki plans to sacrifice most of the party by forcing RobotGirl Aigis to murder them, in order to bring about TheEndOfTheWorldAsWeKnowIt. He's just about to succeed... and at that point, the player is reminded that Ikutsuki forgot to crucify the dog, too.]]
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* ''{{Persona ''VideoGame/{{Persona 3}}''. [[spoiler:After his [[TheReveal Reveal]] as TheChessmaster, Shuji Ikutsuki plans to sacrifice most of the party by forcing RobotGirl Aigis to murder them, in order to bring about TheEndOfTheWorldAsWeKnowIt. He's just about to succeed... and at that point, the player is reminded that Ikutsuki forgot to crucify the dog, too.]]
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* And it happens again in ''{{Persona 4}}'', if you manage to find the true ending. The game itself works against you here, making you wait until most of the way through the good ending and then ignore two of its attempts to turn you around, that it's really no wonder the true final boss is surprised you got that far.
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* And it happens again in ''{{Persona ''VideoGame/{{Persona 4}}'', if you manage to find the true ending. The game itself works against you here, making you wait until most of the way through the good ending and then ignore two of its attempts to turn you around, that it's really no wonder the true final boss is surprised you got that far.
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* ''No one'' seemed to see Yuna and her Guardians coming in ''FinalFantasyX'', least of all [[spoiler:Lady Yunalesca, who has never been challenged before and was certainly not expecting to get the shit kicked out of her [[OneWingedAngel horrifying medusa-head form]], thereby destroying the traditional (but not, as she claimed, "only") way to defeat Sin.]]
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* ''No one'' seemed to see Yuna and her Guardians coming in ''FinalFantasyX'', ''VideoGame/FinalFantasyX'', least of all [[spoiler:Lady Yunalesca, who has never been challenged before and was certainly not expecting to get the shit kicked out of her [[OneWingedAngel horrifying medusa-head form]], thereby destroying the traditional (but not, as she claimed, "only") way to defeat Sin.]]
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* In ''FinalFantasyXIII'', [[spoiler: Barthandelus']] plan to turn the l'Cie into the instruments of Cocoon's destruction hinges on them breaking when he slams them into the DespairEventHorizon, inducing them to follow their [[YogSothothSays Focus]] and using the power of [[SuperpoweredEvilSide Ragnarok]] to kill Orphan. [[spoiler: Fang]] comes close in the end, but not close enough: [[spoiler: Barthandelus']] failure to recognize humans as more than mere tools is the undoing of his schemes, as the l'Cie ultimately save Cocoon ''[[LiteralGenie by subverting their Focus]]''.
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* In ''FinalFantasyXIII'', ''VideoGame/FinalFantasyXIII'', [[spoiler: Barthandelus']] plan to turn the l'Cie into the instruments of Cocoon's destruction hinges on them breaking when he slams them into the DespairEventHorizon, inducing them to follow their [[YogSothothSays Focus]] and using the power of [[SuperpoweredEvilSide Ragnarok]] to kill Orphan. [[spoiler: Fang]] comes close in the end, but not close enough: [[spoiler: Barthandelus']] failure to recognize humans as more than mere tools is the undoing of his schemes, as the l'Cie ultimately save Cocoon ''[[LiteralGenie by subverting their Focus]]''.
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* In ''KaizokuSentaiGokaiger'', former {{Dragon}} Damaras has defeated the Gokaiger, capturing Gokai Red for execution, killing the others, and letting LovableCoward Green live out of mercy. Then his plan gets completely dereailed when Green actually comes back to mount a rescue, relying upon their little-known TeamPet to rescue the leader while he distracts everyone else (and is lampshaded by Red's rival outright saying the trope's name when Green first shows up). [[spoiler:And then we find out that the Rival only faked killing the other Gokaigers, which he reveals as he literally backstabs the Dragon.]]
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* In ''KaizokuSentaiGokaiger'', former {{Dragon}} Damaras has defeated the Gokaiger, capturing Gokai Red Captain Marvelous for execution, killing the others, and letting LovableCoward Green Don live out of mercy. mercy. Then his plan gets completely dereailed when Green Don actually comes back to mount a rescue, relying upon their little-known TeamPet to rescue the leader Marvelous while he distracts everyone else (and is lampshaded by Red's rival Marvelous' FriendTurnedEvil Basco outright saying the trope's name when Green Don first shows up). [[spoiler:And then we find out that the Rival Basco only faked killing the other Gokaigers, which he reveals as he literally backstabs the Dragon.Damaras.]]
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* In the movie ''All Riders vs. Dai-Shocker'', the BigBad Shadow Moon has Decade and Kuuga right where he wants them when [[spoiler: Kamen Rider Double comes out of nowhere for a CurbStompBattle ending with Shadow Moon embedded in the wall of his own castle]].
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* In the ''KamenRiderDecade'' movie ''All Riders vs. Dai-Shocker'', the BigBad Shadow Moon has Decade and Kuuga right where he wants them when [[spoiler: Kamen Rider Double comes out of nowhere for a CurbStompBattle ending with Shadow Moon embedded in the wall of his own castle]].
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* In ''KaizokuSentaiGokaiger'', former {{Dragon}} Damaras has defeated the Gokaiger, capturing Gokai Red for execution, killing the others, and letting LovableCoward Green live out of mercy. Then his plan gets completely dereailed when Green actually comes back to mount a rescue, relying upon their little-known TeamPet to rescue the leader while he distracts everyone else (and is lampshaded by Red's rival outright saying the trope's name when Green first shows up). [[spoiler:And then we find out that the Rival only faked killing the other Gokaigers, which he reveals as he literally backstabs the Dragon.]]
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* ''FanFic/JewelOfDarkness'': Midnight's plan, to [[spoiler: torture Robin into insanity]] in order to force the Titans to disband, ultimately fails because she had no way of knowing that [[spoiler: [[TheDragon Ai]] was possessed/working for Trigon,]] was plotting against her, and would ultimately sell her out to the Titans. Robin also suggests that the plan would have failed anyway, because even if she had succeeded in [[spoiler: breaking him]], he has faith that the team would be strong enough to withstand it.
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--> '''Hunter:''' "I would NOT have predicted this!"
--> '''Colleen:''' "[[LampshadeHanging Face it, Hunty. The Psychic Network, you're not...]]"
--> '''Colleen:''' "[[LampshadeHanging Face it, Hunty. The Psychic Network, you're not...]]"
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* In ''Webcomic/GirlGenius'', [[ThirtyGambitPileup no character ever gets]] to have everything go according to plan. Something always happens just when you least expect it. They can only be better or worse at [[XanatosSpeedChess being on top of the chaos]].
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* In ''Webcomic/GirlGenius'', [[ThirtyGambitPileup [[GambitPileup no character ever gets]] to have everything go according to plan. Something always happens just when you least expect it. They can only be better or worse at [[XanatosSpeedChess being on top of the chaos]].
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* In the second to last episode of TeenTitans, during the FinalBattle [[spoiler:Jinx]] [[HeelFaceTurn switches sides.]] Cyborg comments "I didn't see that coming". Control Freak nods in agreement while being pinned down by Cyborg.
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* ''[[CallahansCrosstimeSaloon Callahan's Lady]]'' has a couple of doozies in its final story. The Professor, the [[ConMan World's Greatest Conman]], bought $50,000 in counterfeit ten-dollar bills from [[PsychoForHire Tony Donuts]]. After the money had been disposed of, Tony demanded the bogus bills back, so the Professor was forced to [[TheCaper rob a bank, to pass real money to Tony for his fakes]]. Unfortunately, after bringing Tony the [[SchmuckBait nice, neatly bound sequential bills]], Tony [[spoiler: realizes the money isn't his counterfeit cash, because ''he'd never figured out how to work the serial number increment mechanism on his press'', and thus all his counterfeit money had ''the same exact serial number''.]] Perfect example of a type 4; clever people have troubles properly accounting for real stupidity.
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* ''[[CallahansCrosstimeSaloon ''[[Literature/CallahansCrosstimeSaloon Callahan's Lady]]'' has a couple of doozies in its final story. The Professor, the [[ConMan World's Greatest Conman]], bought $50,000 in counterfeit ten-dollar bills from [[PsychoForHire Tony Donuts]]. After the money had been disposed of, Tony demanded the bogus bills back, so the Professor was forced to [[TheCaper rob a bank, to pass real money to Tony for his fakes]]. Unfortunately, after bringing Tony the [[SchmuckBait nice, neatly bound sequential bills]], Tony [[spoiler: realizes the money isn't his counterfeit cash, because ''he'd never figured out how to work the serial number increment mechanism on his press'', and thus all his counterfeit money had ''the same exact serial number''.]] Perfect example of a type 4; clever people have troubles properly accounting for real stupidity.
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--->'''Mal''': They're not going to see this coming.
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--->'''Mal:''' No. They're not going to see this coming.
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* Several of these nail [[spoiler:Manfred von Karma]] in ''AceAttorney Phoenix Wright''. He didn't see [[spoiler:Larry Butz]] arriving with key information, didn't expect Phoenix to get useful information out of a parrot [[spoiler:even after retraining it to destroy ''the'' most useful]], and, most importantly, he spends the entire case manipulating the Judge... but never expects the Judge to truly hold devotion to law and order over any fear he may have of him. This last one screws [[spoiler:von Karma]] over more than everything else.
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->''"Mentsch tracht, Gott lacht."''
-->-- '''A Yiddish proverb meaning "Man plans, {{God}} laughs."'''
-->-- '''A Yiddish proverb meaning "Man plans, {{God}} laughs."'''
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-->-- '''A Yiddish
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** Someone who is especially good at this kind is probably CrazyPrepared.
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* In ''MyLittlePonyFriendshipIsMagic'', Applejack says this in "Swarm of the Century", when the voracious parasprites, instead of eating her apple crop, ate her barn instead.
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* In ''MyLittlePonyFriendshipIsMagic'', ''WesternAnimation/MyLittlePonyFriendshipIsMagic'', Applejack says this in "Swarm of the Century", when the voracious parasprites, instead of eating her apple crop, ate her barn instead.
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* Discussed by Edward's friend (voiced by Samuel Jackson) in The Boondocks. He talks about how there are known unknowns, things that we know that we don't know, and unknown unknowns, namely things that we don't know that didn't know, in order to justify how the plan that they had to capture a killer was so far going badly.
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renamed trope
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# '''Unknown Knowns:''' It happens. Sometimes the plotter knows a given [[TheFool person]], event, or variable is present...but doesn't see how it could ''[[{{Pride}} possibly]]'' impact their foolproof plans and proceeds to [[NotNowKiddo dismiss it]] or [[HelpFaceTurn mistreat those "irrelevant" to his plot]], and otherwise ignore [[SwordOfDamocles the sword overhead]] [[LaserGuidedKarma while whittling at the rope holding it there]].
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# '''Unknown Knowns:''' It happens. Sometimes the plotter knows a given [[TheFool person]], event, or variable is present...but doesn't see how it could ''[[{{Pride}} possibly]]'' impact their foolproof plans and proceeds to [[NotNowKiddo dismiss it]] or [[HelpFaceTurn [[MistreatmentInducedBetrayal mistreat those "irrelevant" to his plot]], and otherwise ignore [[SwordOfDamocles the sword overhead]] [[LaserGuidedKarma while whittling at the rope holding it there]].
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These tend to come in five varieties:
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Adding quote to Ciaphas Cain section
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-->''"Well, that was unexpected..."''
-->'''[[{{Warhammer40000}} Chaos Warmaster]] [[CiaphasCain Varan the Undefeatable]]''', [[FamousLastWords last words]]
-->'''[[{{Warhammer40000}} Chaos Warmaster]] [[CiaphasCain Varan the Undefeatable]]''', [[FamousLastWords last words]]
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* [[{{Discworld}} Lord Vetinari]] subverts the trope by accounting for [=~Didn't See That Coming~=]. Instead of planning, he waits until the unexpected (or the expected--he has a very firm grasp of human nature) happens, then drives the situation to his advantage from there. Even when it seems like he's miscalculated, people prove every bit as stupid or clever, dogged or unmotivated, loyal or treacherous as he expects.
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* [[{{Discworld}} Lord Vetinari]] subverts the trope by accounting for [=~Didn't See That Coming~=]. Instead of planning, he waits until the unexpected (or the expected--he has a very firm grasp of human nature) happens, then drives the situation to his advantage from there. Even when it seems like he's miscalculated, people prove every bit as stupid or clever, dogged or unmotivated, loyal or treacherous as he expects. He is a master at XanatosSpeedChess.
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# '''Unknown Unknowns:''' Then there are the unknown unknowns, or even unknowable unknowns. These cannot be prepared for, planned for, or in any way anticipated. They are the bane of all well laid plans. This can often be a GenreShift, for example, and the character was in the dark because of TheMasquerade. The mage being surprised by the space alien, for instance, or TheMafia [[DeathNote not expecting]] PsychicPowers. [DeusExMachina Acts of God]] and {{Outside Context Villain}}s tend to fit in here, unless characters are aware that they are a CosmicPlaything, and even then it's hard to know what you don't know, except that you don't know anything.
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# '''Unknown Unknowns:''' Then there are the unknown unknowns, or even unknowable unknowns. These cannot be prepared for, planned for, or in any way anticipated. They are the bane of all well laid plans. This can often be a GenreShift, for example, and the character was in the dark because of TheMasquerade. The mage being surprised by the space alien, for instance, or TheMafia [[DeathNote not expecting]] PsychicPowers. [DeusExMachina [[DeusExMachina Acts of God]] and {{Outside Context Villain}}s tend to fit in here, unless characters are aware that they are a CosmicPlaything, and even then it's hard to know what you don't know, except that you don't know anything.
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Ah, nothing denotes how CrazyPrepared TheChessmaster is like the good old XanatosGambit... except perhaps the XanatosRoulette. Truly, there is ''nothing'' these twelfth-level omni-geniuses have not [[ClockKing contemplated in their equations]] and planned for with contingencies [[TimeForPlanB B through Z^42.]]
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Ah, nothing denotes how CrazyPrepared TheChessmaster is like the good old XanatosGambit... except perhaps the XanatosRoulette.GambitPileup. Truly, there is ''nothing'' these twelfth-level omni-geniuses have not [[ClockKing contemplated in their equations]] and planned for with contingencies [[TimeForPlanB B through Z^42.]]
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# '''Known Knowns:''' There are the known dangers, these you deal with directly.
** My opponent has access to [[FrickinLaserBeams laser blasters]] -- I need DeflectorShields before I attack.
# '''Known Unknowns:''' These are the things strategists know they don't know, but they can prepare for the different possible outcomes.
** The enemy has his forces deployed elsewhere when you are StormingTheCastle, so you need a plan for what to do if these forces do not return in time (to take full advantage), and you need a plan for what to do if the enemy forces return early.
# '''Unknown Unknowns:''' Then there are the unknown unknowns, or even unknowable unknowns. These cannot be prepared for, planned for, or in any way anticipated. They are the bane of all well laid plans. This can often be a GenreShift, for example, and the character was in the dark because of TheMasquerade. The mage being surprised by the space alien, for instance, or TheMafia [[DeathNote not expecting]] PsychicPowers.
** [[DeusExMachina Acts of God]] and {{Outside Context Villain}}s tend to fit in here -- unless characters are aware that they are a CosmicPlaything, and even then it's hard to know what you don't know, except that you don't know anything.
** [[TwoRightsMakeAWrong Trying to take care of whatever could go wrong only makes it worse.]]
** My opponent has access to [[FrickinLaserBeams laser blasters]] -- I need DeflectorShields before I attack.
# '''Known Unknowns:''' These are the things strategists know they don't know, but they can prepare for the different possible outcomes.
** The enemy has his forces deployed elsewhere when you are StormingTheCastle, so you need a plan for what to do if these forces do not return in time (to take full advantage), and you need a plan for what to do if the enemy forces return early.
# '''Unknown Unknowns:''' Then there are the unknown unknowns, or even unknowable unknowns. These cannot be prepared for, planned for, or in any way anticipated. They are the bane of all well laid plans. This can often be a GenreShift, for example, and the character was in the dark because of TheMasquerade. The mage being surprised by the space alien, for instance, or TheMafia [[DeathNote not expecting]] PsychicPowers.
** [[DeusExMachina Acts of God]] and {{Outside Context Villain}}s tend to fit in here -- unless characters are aware that they are a CosmicPlaything, and even then it's hard to know what you don't know, except that you don't know anything.
** [[TwoRightsMakeAWrong Trying to take care of whatever could go wrong only makes it worse.]]
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# '''Known Knowns:''' There are the known dangers, these you deal with directly.
**directly: My opponent has access to [[FrickinLaserBeams laser blasters]] -- I need DeflectorShields before I attack.
# '''Known Unknowns:''' These are the things strategists know they don't know, but they can prepare for the different possibleoutcomes.
**outcomes: The enemy has his forces deployed elsewhere when you are StormingTheCastle, so you need a plan for what to do if these forces do not return in time (to take full advantage), and you need a plan for what to do if the enemy forces return early.
# '''Unknown Unknowns:''' Then there are the unknown unknowns, or even unknowable unknowns. These cannot be prepared for, planned for, or in any way anticipated. They are the bane of all well laid plans. This can often be a GenreShift, for example, and the character was in the dark because of TheMasquerade. The mage being surprised by the space alien, for instance, or TheMafia [[DeathNote not expecting]]PsychicPowers.
** [[DeusExMachinaPsychicPowers. [DeusExMachina Acts of God]] and {{Outside Context Villain}}s tend to fit in here -- here, unless characters are aware that they are a CosmicPlaything, and even then it's hard to know what you don't know, except that you don't know anything.
** [[TwoRightsMakeAWrong Trying to take care of whatever could go wrong only makes it worse.]]anything.
**
# '''Known Unknowns:''' These are the things strategists know they don't know, but they can prepare for the different possible
**
# '''Unknown Unknowns:''' Then there are the unknown unknowns, or even unknowable unknowns. These cannot be prepared for, planned for, or in any way anticipated. They are the bane of all well laid plans. This can often be a GenreShift, for example, and the character was in the dark because of TheMasquerade. The mage being surprised by the space alien, for instance, or TheMafia [[DeathNote not expecting]]
** [[DeusExMachina
** [[TwoRightsMakeAWrong Trying to take care of whatever could go wrong only makes it worse.]]
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->'"'Woah... didn't see that coming."''
-->-- '''Johnny Test (and almost everyone else, of varying varieties)''', ''Johnny Test''
-->-- '''Johnny Test (and almost everyone else, of varying varieties)''', ''Johnny Test''
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* In ''Fanfic/WithStringsAttached'', the completely unexpected appearance of mobs of skahs in Ehndris diverts the baddies' attention and gives John and Ringo the chance to avoid a head-on confrontation with the Raleka as they race to get into the warehouse.
** Also, no one was expecting Kerrun to have a VillainousBreakdown and declare the skahs to actually be Idris (the mortal enemies of the Raleka), shifting the focus of the Raleka away from John and Ringo.
** Also, no one was expecting Kerrun to have a VillainousBreakdown and declare the skahs to actually be Idris (the mortal enemies of the Raleka), shifting the focus of the Raleka away from John and Ringo.
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**[[TwoRightsMakeAWrong Trying to take care of whatever could go wrong only makes it worse.]]
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[[folder:Bord Games]]
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Who\'s Vogel and what series is he from? Removing example until someone can provide a series link.
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* Given that [[CorruptCorporateExecutive Vogel]] used the Boss to kill pretty much all of his personal enemies, it's kinda strange that he didn't expect the Boss to first survive waves of bad guys, then be pissed off afterward.
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* Pity poor [[VampireTheMasqueradeBloodlines Sebastian LaCroix]]. For an ineffectual-seeming idiot Prince, he manages to make [[SurprisinglyEliteCannonFodder surprisingly good use of the PC]] and then [[spoiler: turn the entire city against you when he [[YouHaveOutlivedYourUsefulness doesn't need you anymore]]]]. Problem is, there was simply no way he could count on [[spoiler: you defeating the Blood Hunt and any and all other opposition by yourself, Caine empowering you to defeat his Dominate, ''and'' Jack [[ZeroWing setting him up the bomb]]]]. Okay, the first might have been something he should have expected, but the rest almost amounts to a DiabolusExMachina from his perspective.
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* VampireTheMasqueradeBloodlines - Pity poor [[VampireTheMasqueradeBloodlines Sebastian LaCroix]].LaCroix. For an ineffectual-seeming idiot Prince, he manages to make [[SurprisinglyEliteCannonFodder surprisingly good use of the PC]] and then [[spoiler: turn the entire city against you when he [[YouHaveOutlivedYourUsefulness doesn't need you anymore]]]]. Problem is, there was simply no way he could count on [[spoiler: you defeating the Blood Hunt and any and all other opposition by yourself, Caine empowering you to defeat his Dominate, ''and'' Jack [[ZeroWing setting him up the bomb]]]]. Okay, the first might have been something he should have expected, but the rest almost amounts to a DiabolusExMachina from his perspective.
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[[folder:Board Games]]
* [[{{Shogi}} Dammit, I wasn't expecting you to drop the Rook there]]!
* [[{{Shogi}} Dammit, I wasn't expecting you to drop the Rook there]]!
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*
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* Since {{Go}} has a ridiculously complicated {{metagame}} deciding who actually controls territory on the board, it's possible to make unorthodox (or slightly less orthodox) moves that result in a massive advantage. (For a glamorized version of how this might happen, watch any match in HikariNoGo.)
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* In one ''SouthPark'' episode, when Kenny died, Stan didn't react the usual way. (i.e. shouting [[CatchPhrase "Oh, my God! They killed Kenny!"]]) Instead, he asked who didn't see that coming.
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** The two things that Discord hadn't planned for were [[spoiler:Celestia breaking Twilight out of her HeroicBSOD by sending her the letters her student had sent her the entire previous season and Twilight somehow reuniting her friends and breaking them out of Discord's MindRape so they could use the Elements Of Harmony to defeat him.]] The former is likely an Unknown Unknown he couldn't have expected and the latter is a Known Unknown, he knew about who was involved but hadn't forseen how they could do anything to stop him at that point.
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[[redirect:{{ptitle7xno8ayw}}]]
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[[caption-width-right:320:Call it a hunch, but [[CaptainObvious I'd say things didn't go as planned here]].]]
->''"Mentsch tracht, Gott lacht."''
-->-- '''A Yiddish proverb meaning "Man plans, {{God}} laughs."'''
->'"'Woah... didn't see that coming."''
-->-- '''Johnny Test (and almost everyone else, of varying varieties)''', ''Johnny Test''
Ah, nothing denotes how CrazyPrepared TheChessmaster is like the good old XanatosGambit... except perhaps the XanatosRoulette. Truly, there is ''nothing'' these twelfth-level omni-geniuses have not [[ClockKing contemplated in their equations]] and planned for with contingencies [[TimeForPlanB B through Z^42.]]
Then something, or [[SpannerInTheWorks someone]], happens. Not just something that the Chessmaster didn't know about, but something that he didn't know he didn't know. In fact there was no way he could have known that that he didn't know this. Thus the brilliant plan goes to pieces, with a deadpan "I DidntSeeThatComing" once the dust settles. Less [[TheStoic Stoic]] fellows may go OhCrap or into VillainousBreakdown, though usually it's a SpannerInTheWorks that causes that reaction.
These tend to come in five varieties:
# '''Known Knowns:''' There are the known dangers, these you deal with directly.
** My opponent has access to [[FrickinLaserBeams laser blasters]] -- I need DeflectorShields before I attack.
# '''Known Unknowns:''' These are the things strategists know they don't know, but they can prepare for the different possible outcomes.
** The enemy has his forces deployed elsewhere when you are StormingTheCastle, so you need a plan for what to do if these forces do not return in time (to take full advantage), and you need a plan for what to do if the enemy forces return early.
# '''Unknown Unknowns:''' Then there are the unknown unknowns, or even unknowable unknowns. These cannot be prepared for, planned for, or in any way anticipated. They are the bane of all well laid plans. This can often be a GenreShift, for example, and the character was in the dark because of TheMasquerade. The mage being surprised by the space alien, for instance, or TheMafia [[DeathNote not expecting]] PsychicPowers.
** [[DeusExMachina Acts of God]] and {{Outside Context Villain}}s tend to fit in here -- unless characters are aware that they are a CosmicPlaything, and even then it's hard to know what you don't know, except that you don't know anything.
# '''Unknown Knowns:''' It happens. Sometimes the plotter knows a given [[TheFool person]], event, or variable is present...but doesn't see how it could ''[[{{Pride}} possibly]]'' impact their foolproof plans and proceeds to [[NotNowKiddo dismiss it]] or [[HelpFaceTurn mistreat those "irrelevant" to his plot]], and otherwise ignore [[SwordOfDamocles the sword overhead]] [[LaserGuidedKarma while whittling at the rope holding it there]].
** In MysteryFiction, these people are the suspects and facts that are quickly [[BeneathSuspicion discarded in favor of the high profile suspects]]. However, add up all the background chatter and the motivations for why [[TheButlerDidIt it was the butler]] becomes incredibly obvious.
** TheDogBitesBack
** EvilCannotComprehendGood
# '''False Assumptions:''' Even the most diabolical scheme can be doomed before it even starts if it's built on [[DidNotDoTheResearch faulty information.]] That [[{{Futurama}} ridiculously circuitous]] plan to steal the MacGuffin from the safe deposit box by sneaking into the bank disguised as security guards? The only thing TheHero's grandfather hid there was some [[AllThatGlitters old family memorabilia]]; the MacGuffin is hidden somewhere else entirely (if it even exists).
Any plotter claiming to have all five of these variables accounted for (and actually has a plot succeed) is very likely playing a XanatosRoulette and [[DeusExMachina getting help from on high]] to do it.
A plotter who is aware that these can appear, builds the flexibility into his plan, and improvises when they arise, is playing XanatosSpeedChess.
Compare SpannerInTheWorks, which very often is the unknown factor. See also DidntThinkThisThrough.
----
'''Examples:'''
[[foldercontrol]]
[[folder: Anime and Manga ]]
* Running into one of these is how [[spoiler:Light]] of ''DeathNote'' finally lost.
** Specifically a Type 4. It occurred to him his plan might have anticipated, but underestimated his opponent's capacity to do so.
*** Actually Type 3: Shidou was a greater SpannerInTheWorks than anyone else, and there was no way Light could have foresaw the damage he did.
** Hell, come to think of it, it's what did [[spoiler:L in, as well. Being the world's greatest detective can only take you so far if your nemesis has a ''god'' on his side]].
*** Though in the [[TheMovie live action movie version]], [[spoiler:L [[GodModeSue actually came up with]] [[HeroicSacrifice a way]] to counter even that factor.]]
* Kyon of ''SuzumiyaHaruhi'' gets a note asking him to meet in the classroom after school. He's pretty sure it isn't any of the SOS members, but he thinks a little about how he'll respond to each of them, if it is one of them after all. He knows that he does not know who it is. However, it was not possible for him to know that [[spoiler:Ryoko Asakura was actually an alien waiting there to murder him]]. He got hit with DidntSeeThatComing, and it was not fun.
** Not fun for him. For us, the audience, it was FREAKING AWESOME.
* Quattro, the resident SmugSnake from ''MagicalGirlLyricalNanoha [=StrikerS=]'' encounters a tiny flaw that completely undoes her whole plan when she overlooks a few critical facts. First, [[spoiler: That Nanoha is a mage that specializes in blowing stuff up.]] Second, [[spoiler: that Nanoha is using a special booster system that makes her capable of blowing up even more stuff.]] And finally, [[spoiler: that Nanoha was using area search magic to look for the cyborg the entire time she was fighting against her adopted daughter, per Quattro's plans.]] On top of all that, somehow Quattro tends to overlook an even more critical fact regarding the way Nanoha [[DefeatMeansFriendship treats her friends and loved ones.]] While being ignorant of the third was a reasonable possibility, there is absolutely no excuse for the first two, not to mention Nanoha's tendency to befriend people. The end result... OhCrap!
** Of course, Quattro ''did'' see it coming in the end. She was just too late to do anything about it.
** On a wider scale, Jail and the cyborgs got blindsided completely by Section 6' available firepower, due to careful management of their {{Power Limiter}}s hiding what they were really capable of.
* ''CodeGeass'' . All the time, courtesy of [[ButtMonkey the universe's violent hatred of Lelouch]]. Seriously, the only plan to go off without a hitch was Zero Requiem, [[spoiler:which ends with ''{{suicide|ByCop}}''.]]
* [[spoiler: Alucard]] in ''{{Hellsing}}'' is finally finished off when [[spoiler: the Major gets him to weaken himself by unleashing his familiars, become injured by fighting a newly vampirised Walter, then try to restore himself by reabsorbing his familiars and all of the blood in the devastated London. The snag for Alucard comes when the Major has Schrodinger commit suicide and be absorbed by Alucard; Schrodinger's nature means that he ceases to exist if he cannot identify himself. Being absorbed by Alucard and melded with the souls of his familiars makes him unable to identify himself, causing him to cease to exist, and taking Alucard with him]].
** [[spoiler: HeGotBetter.]]
* In ''OnePiece'', the World Government captured Ace and imprisoned him, prompting Luffy to break in to get him out. Normally, one pirate single-handedly invading their fortress jail to break someone out under maximum security would be an easy matter to deal with. Unfortunately [[spoiler: Luffy ultimately set ''all'' their prisoners free, recruited as many as he could into fighting the World Government with the surprise aid of [[IneffectualSympatheticVillain Buggy the Clown, Mr. 3]], [[{{Crossdresser}} Mr. 2 Bon Kurei]], and two ex-members of the Seven Warlords of the Sea. To top it off, a current Warlord, Blackbeard, turned on them for unknown reasons while everyone else was preparing for all-out war with Whitebeard. And wouldn't you just know it, numerous prisoners that Luffy recruited have [[EigenPlot the exact powers needed for the group to succeed]].]]
** [[spoiler:Unfortunately, things don't go as planned. Things don't go as planned ''at all''.]]
** A better example is when Luffy goes for a rematch with Crocodile, and swallows a huge barrel of water to become a living water balloon. Crocodile is more than a bit surprised by this, though he recovers quickly.
** Luffy's "execution" (actually an attempted murder) in Roguetown is prevented when the executioner is struck by a bolt of lightning. Luffy's flabbergasted allies can only conclude it was DivineIntervention. However, it's really a type 4 all around, maybe even an IdiotBall moment. Why? They were atop a tall tower, the executioner wielding a metal sword, while ''[[WhatAnIdiot thunder was rumbling in the background]]''.
*** [[spoiler: Although it is well implied that it wasn't natural lightning that struck.]]
** Zoro [[spoiler: begs Dracule Mihawk to train him so that he can surpass and defeat...well...Dracule Mihawk. He's actually trying to get stronger for the sake of the Straw Hats, but, he's not forgetting his own goal in the process.]] Dracule [[spoiler: ''agrees to it,'' knowing that he's helping to create the one swordsman he believes can defeat him. Simply ''because'' Zoro is willing to throw away his pride for the Straw Hats.]] Hoobaja''what''?!
*** ForTheLulz. Also, BloodKnight seeks WorthyOpponent.
* In ''PrincessTutu'', [[spoiler:[[DarkMagicalGirl Rue]] pulling a HeroicSacrifice and saving Mytho from TheCorruption through the PowerOfLove]] blindsides Drosselmeyer so utterly that he spends the next five seconds gaping dumbfoundedly before finally going, "...[[FlatWhat What.]]" [[XanatosSpeedChess He does recover his plans rather quickly though -- just on a different rail]].
* In ''MahouSenseiNegima'', a type 3 screws up [[spoiler: Kurt Godel's]] plan to make Negi an ally, as [[spoiler: he was totally unaware that Negi had a [[http://www.mangafox.com/manga/mahou_sensei_negima/v30/c272/11.html source of information]] that that Kurt couldn't have possibly have anticipated.]]
** [[spoiler: Chapter 273 is basically just Kurt's whole Gambit falling to pieces around him. First he reveals himself as a powerful Shinmeiryuu swordsman; Negi overloads his defenses. Then he claims they can't escape from his projected space; Chisame disables it. Finally he claims that no one knows they're there anyway; Asakura reveals that all of Negi's friends outside have been watching what's happened through her artifact the whole time. Then, just to top it off, he gets smacked with [[BigDamnHeroes Ku Fei's artifact and Takamichi lamps him one from across the room.]]]]
** Then right after that, Ala Alba's preparations promptly got shot to hell by [[spoiler: the arrival of one of Fate's minions, causing their main retreat plan, as well as most of their backups, to fall to pieces.]]
* In ''PokemonSpecial'', this is pretty much the only reason why Giovanni loses against Red in the two battles they fought against each other. First time, he completely dominated Red from beginning to end, took down all his Pokemon except Pika, and knew that he could take Red down before it could attack. How was he supposed to know Red stole Lt. Surge's gloves so that Pika could charge up its attack in its Pokeball? The second time, his Deoxys is beating him and Mewtwo. Too bad Bill and Celio, miles and miles away from the battle, manage to steal the jewels that were allowing Deoxys to form change.
* [[{{Naruto}} Kisame Hoshigaki]] probably shouldn't have stopped to KickTheDog after subduing Killer Bee- but who could have expected that [[spoiler: he'd be betrayed by his own EmpathicWeapon, leading to his defeat and death when reinforcements arrive?]] Certainly not [[AssPull the readers]], that's for sure... ([[spoiler: Actually, he ''did'' see it coming, since his "death" was a KansasCityShuffle to infiltrate the Cloud Village.]])
** [[spoiler: What he ''did'' fail to see coming was that Naruto would be able to detect ''murderous intention'', leading to his actual death.]]
** In the first movie ''Ninja Clash in the Snow'', there's a incredibly obvious Type 5: the evil ruler of Snow Country is trying to activate a machine that his peace-loving brother (who he overthrew) created under the assumption that it's a [[YouFailLogicForever superweapon]]. The machine turned out to be [[spoiler: a system of mirrors designed to warm the country and trigger spring.]]
* In ''RurouniKenshin'' during the Kyoto arc, Shishio has set up an attack on Kyoto as a distraction for his real goal: to take his pre-Dreadnought era Dreadnought to Tokyo. He wasn't too surprised that Kenshin read through this ruse, however he and his Dragon didn't know about Sano and frankly didn't care when he showed up. [[spoiler: Until they found out he brought a former terrorist friends gift with him; a handful of bombs. It was this that managed to destroy the ship.]]
* ''ToAruMajutsuNoIndex'': A type 4, bordering on type 5, screws up Aleister Crowley's plans big time when [[spoiler:Shiage Hamazura]], a completely normal Level 0, defeats a Level 5. From then on, [[spoiler:Shiage Hamazura]] becomes an unknown variable to be accounted for, forcing Aleister to use up resources in order to eliminate the unknown variable.
* ''Anime/PuellaMagiMadokaMagica'': for all of [[spoiler:Kyubey's]] {{Batman Gambit}}s and deception to further his plans, he fails to account for the one thing he's been tempting [[spoiler:Madoka]] with in the first place: [[spoiler:Madoka practically wishes to overwrite the entire universe.]]
* In ''RobotechTheShadowChronicles'', the last words of bad guys are "This was not foreseen", this being an explosion with a blast radius of ''Millions of kilometers''.
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[[folder:Board Games]]
* [[{{Shogi}} Dammit, I wasn't expecting you to drop the Rook there]]!
* In a similar manner, {{Chess}}, especially if a player [[FailedASpotCheck fails a spot check]].
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[[folder:Comic Books]]
* Frequent ''ComicBook/FantasticFour'' the [[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mad_Thinker Mad Thinker]] is often foiled by things that even his supergenius intelligence can't predict, [[StrawVulcan such as random human behavior]].
* ''[[InfinityGauntlet The Infinity War]]'' has a resurrected Magus employ a complicated scheme to [[spoiler:seize all the Infinity Gems from Warlock and his Infinity Watch]]. Because the plan is too complicated requiring all his attention, the Magus literally ''doesn't see'' the [[spoiler:combined efforts of DoctorDoom and Kang interfering with his plan.]]
* The {{Satan}} CaptainErsatz from JMichaelStraczynski's graphic novel ''MidnightNation'' literally says this line word for word [[spoiler:after TheHero with the MeaningfulName of Gray turns down his offer, chooses self sacrifice, and turns the BalanceBetweenGoodAndEvil right against him, something which thousands of predecessors before him had all failed to do]].
* Malekith the Accursed in ''TheIncredibleHercules'' falls prey to this. [[EpicFail One panel]] after he revealed his scheme. [[spoiler: Who can stand against the mighty Grendell with Hercules and TheMightyThor both weakened? ''Zeus''. To add injury to insult, Grendell then ''fell on him''.]] Probably a Type 5, as the plan was based on the assumption that [[spoiler: Zeus was still dead.]]
* In a ''{{Dracula}}'' vs ''{{Superman}}'' crossover Dracula was struck with an ignominious Type 5. His plan was to drink Superman's blood and thus gain the powers of a Kryptonian. Unfortunately he was not aware that Superman is ''solar-powered'', and drinking his blood had a similar effect to trying to chow down on an active grenade.
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[[folder:Fan Fic]]
* This tends to happen to heroes of PeggySue fanfics when the changes they make to the timeline come back to bite them in the ass. An excellent example of this occurs in ''Literature/HarryPotter and the Nightmares of Futures Past''; Harry rants to Dumbledore about his living conditions with the Dursleys at one point, and Dumbledore responds [[spoiler: by using memory charms on the Dursleys in an effort to improve the situation. When an unknown third party later removes the charms and Vernon ''remembers being charmed'', Harry's already-rocky relationship with the Dursleys turns downright venomous, culminating in a savage beating during the first year/second year summer break that leaves Harry in critical condition.]]
* [[spoiler: Tzeentch's failure to see the C'tan plans coming]] was what forced [[spoiler: the canon!40k gods]] to work together in ''FanFic/ThousandShinji''. Continues into ''FanFic/TheOpenDoor'', where [=newChaos=] forces occasionally find themselves facing things even the supposedly-omniscient [[spoiler: and inheritor of Tzeentcch's mantle]] Tzintchi fails to see coming and thus pay for it.
* Pops up left and right in ''Fanfic/TiberiumWars'', to both GDI and Nod. After all, GDI never saw the initial Nod assault coming, nor did Nod ever see [[spoiler: Havoc's mini-guerilla war]], [[spoiler: fifty thousand GDI Marines]], or [[spoiler: a ''division'' of Mammoth Tanks]] coming.
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[[folder:Film]]
* Type 3 occurs in ''Film/{{Serenity}}'' when the Alliance releases the Pax. No one could have foreseen the [[spoiler:Reavers' creation]] Of course, their failure to do so is a classic case of the IdiotBall, as what kind of a moron doesn't run proper clinical trials before [[spoiler:dosing an entire fucking planetary population!]]
** A type 4 occurs later in the movie when [[spoiler: the Alliance's trap is derailed as Serenity charges at them with an army of Reavers.]]
--->'''Mal''': They're not going to see this coming.
* The CoenBrothers movie ''{{Fargo}}'' centers around a man trying to get out of financial trouble by hatching a XanatosGambit to have some men kidnap his wife and pretend to hold her for ransom so he could get some money from her wealthy father to pay off his debts. The plan spirals completely out of control and causes the deaths of about five or six people, including the wife.
* ''AnchormanTheLegendOfRonBurgundy'' probably executed this in the most humorously absurd manner. When Burgundy and company start butting heads with another news group, they bring along multitude of weapons. Soon, other rival news groups join, and they all get into one large and epic battle royale. At different times, one person gets killed with a trident, another gets caught in a net and dragged on the floor by two horses, someone gets a hold of a grenade, Luke Wilson's character's gets an arm chopped off, and then his other arm's ripped off by a [[EverythingsWorseWithBears bear]].
-->'''Frank:''' ''(after getting his arm chopped off out of nowhere)''"Ugh! I did ''not'' see that coming!"
* The Joker's reaction to the eventual result of his social experiment in ''{{The Dark Knight|Saga}}'' can be seen as an emotive example of this trope. Of course, being the Joker, he's not put off for long.
* [[StarWars Palpatine]]. [[RockBeatsLaser Ewoks]]. And he apparently never considered that a guy who [[LoveMakesYouEvil turned to the Dark Side to save his wife]] might [[LoveRedeems turn from it to save his son]].
** If you take that plot from the EU, you could say that he ''did'' have a plan to survive the latter...but not for the Rebellion succeeding in blowing up the Death Star.
* In ''TitanAE'', in a subversion of TheGuardsMustBeCrazy, the guard that the heroes are trying to fool instantly figures out that they're trying to pull a fast one over on him. Preed [[SarcasmMode subtly]] leans over and asks if [[TimeForPlanB the group has a plan B.]] Stith beats the crap out of the guard, and leads Preed to the following quote.
-->'''Preed:''' An intelligent guard. [[DidntSeeThatComing Didn't see that one coming.]]
** Type 4 occurs in the climax. The Drej have their entire fleet attacking the Titan station, hellbent on destroying it. Titan is running on auxiliary power, which isn't enough to activate the station. The Drej, being energy beings, are undefeatable...until [[spoiler: the heros realize that Drej energy can be absorbed and converted into station power. The entire fleet is destroyed.]]
* ''OnceUponATimeInMexico'''s Agent Sands had a nice {{Chessmaster}} scheme going. A number of things went wrong, including Cucuy going FaceHeelTurn and Mariachi and crew deciding to help the President instead of letting him die, but the one hitch that Sands truly did not see coming was [[spoiler:Ajedrez turning out to be not only TheMole, but Barillo's daughter]]. [[spoiler:Ajedrez]] even lampshades it: "You never saw it coming, did you?"
** Which makes for a nice bit of irony (or something) as [[spoiler:he shortly after loses the ability to see ANYTHING coming in an EyeScream moment.]]
* The type 4 is the whole plot of ''UnderSiege'' with S. Seagal. Who would have thought that this annoying ''cook'' could be a threat to the very well conceived plan executed by the bad guys.
* The type 3 is the plot of ''UnderSiege'' 2 and a lot of action movie like the ''Film/DieHard'' series, other Seagal's movies and much others.
* In the movie ''{{Film/Kick-Ass}}'', Frank D'Amico never imagined that by framing the cop who refused to take his bribe, he would turn him into something far more dangerous. Big Daddy was so ridiculously efficient in destroying D'Amico's operation that if Kick-Ass wouldn't have [[SpannerInTheWorks accidentally provided him with a lead]], D'Amico probably wouldn't have realized who was after him until he was about to die.
* In the movie ''All Riders vs. Dai-Shocker'', the BigBad Shadow Moon has Decade and Kuuga right where he wants them when [[spoiler: Kamen Rider Double comes out of nowhere for a CurbStompBattle ending with Shadow Moon embedded in the wall of his own castle]].
* The film version of ''RichieRich'' fits type 5 almost word-for-word, as the Riches do in fact keep family memorabilia in their safe. Their money, rather sensibly, has been ''invested'' and isn't vulnerable to just being swiped.
* In ''MysteryScienceTheater3000'', Crow ''did'' know that breaching the hull of the Satellite of Love would result in dangerous decompression... yet he still somehow thinks tunneling back to Earth is a good idea and is taken by surprise when it doesn't work.
-->'''Crow:''' Whooooooooooa I didn't expect this! [...] Wow, this ''is'' confusing! Mike! You wanna hand me me my calculations? ''[The wind happens to blow Crow's calculations right into his face.]'' Thank you. ''[Reading.]'' Well, look at that. "Breach hull--all die." Even had it underlined.
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[[folder:Literature]]
* In IsaacAsimov's ''{{Foundation}}'' series, Hari Seldon is able to predict politics using math. However, the emergence of "The Mule", a {{mutant|s}} ([[spoiler:sort of]]), is so powerful that he alters the path of history. When Seldon's message about a Civil War (predicted for the time of The Mule's emergence) goes over like a lead balloon, the people realize that The Mule has altered the plan. Seldon has died by this time, so he doesn't get a moment to reflect, but the [[OhCrap reactions of the people who have up until then been relying on Seldon's fully accurate predictions are fairly priceless]].
** Of course, while Seldon didn't see the Mule himself coming, he ''did'' see the possibility of an unexpected variable coming and screwing with his plan, so he [[CrazyPrepared created a secret group tasked with correcting things if the unexpected occurred]].
* [[TheThrawnTrilogy Grand Admiral Thrawn]] was playing a very effective game of XanatosSpeedChess, until bitten by two or three Unknown Knowns. Specifically, [[SpannerInTheWorks Niles Ferrier botching his plan for the fringe]], causing a group of independent smugglers to join the New Republic in battle; [[TheStarscream C'baoth killing the ysalamiri and escaping his imprisonment]]; and his secret cloning facility being discovered, ''all at the same time''. All of this he ''might'' have been able to deal with. But the one thread that came loose in his plan, and led to his [[BodyguardBetrayal eventual]] [[TheDogBitesBack demise]], was all caused by one single Unknown Unknown, or, as TimothyZahn put it, a bit of information he didn't know and didn't know he didn't know: [[spoiler:that Leia was Darth Vader's daughter.]][[hottip:*:Or, at least, that was the intention. The later [[StarWarsExpandedUniverse EU]] has had trouble deciding whether it was public knowledge or not.]] At the very least, he didn't know that the Noghri could detect that fact simply from Leia's ''scent''.
* In ''[[{{Dragaera}} Yendi]]'', a perfectly good plan to [[spoiler:install Sethra the Younger as Warlord]] was foiled because, Aliera and Morrolan were standing in the wrong places and then Aliera revived Norathar and Cawti.
* TheCulture has its own term for Type 3 situations -- an "Outside Context Problem". For instance, a prosperous South Pacific island tribe suddenly discovering they've been colonized by an 18th-century European naval power -- the kind of situation a civilization only encounters the same way a sentence encounters a period, ''once''. The novel ''Excession'' revolves around one of these in the form of a NegativeSpaceWedgie.
* In Ben Counter's ''{{Warhammer 40000}}'' HorusHeresy novel ''Galaxy in Flames'', when Angron attacks [[spoiler:the survivors of their treacherous attack]], Horus is enraged -- with himself.
-->''"Angron is a killer!" snapped Horus, rounding on his Mournival son. "He solves every problem with raw violence. He attacks first and thinks latter, if he thinks at all. And yet I never saw this!"''
* In ''Beowulf's Children'', the sequel to ''The Legacy of Heorot'' by LarryNiven, Jerry Pournelle, and Steven Barnes, Aaron Tragon's (the MagnificentBastard of the novel [[spoiler: who comes close to being a CompleteMonster by the end]]) schemes to colonize the mainland of the planet and becoming the new leader of the colonists is derailed by a rather spectacular Unknown Unknown. After [[spoiler: shooting Little Chaka and Cadmann to keep them from warning everyone of the imminent continent sweeping attack of the recently discovered ''huge flesh-eating "bees" with SuperSpeed'']], all in order to keep everyone from leaving, he goes back to the colony and tells everyone a story of how they were devoured by grendels. He puts on a ''very'' convincing act of grief and shame, while preparing to take the reins of leadership left behind by [[spoiler: Cadmann]]. All of a sudden, [[spoiler: the intelligent ''grendel'' protagonist approaches the colony, having ''saved'' Little Chaka, who proceeds to blow the whole scheme out of the water by telling everyone of Aaron's betrayal]]. The only reason Aaron avoids execution on the spot is the untimely arrival of the aforementioned [[spoiler: ''flesh-eating "bees" with superspeed'']].
* Usually what causes any of {{The Chessmaster}}s in ''ASongOfIceAndFire'' to finally slip up.
** Tyrion is left badly injured after a battle, and while he's comatose, [[spoiler:every single one of the men on his side is either turned to Cersei's side or replaced.]] Given the circumstances, he manages a spectacular recovery, which is promptly destroyed when [[spoiler:Joffrey is murdered and Tyrion is framed for it]]. It's yet to be seen whether or not he will manage to come back from this one, but [[spoiler:he's probably going to meet Daenerys soon, and Tyrion's most beloved dream has always been to ride a dragon...]]
** [[SmugSnake Cersei]] resurrects [[ChurchMilitant the Swords and Stars]] and has them charge her rival with treason; unfortunately, [[spoiler:the Swords and Stars decide to ''torture'' the man she sent to testify against Maergery, and, trying to save himself, he tells them everything, including Cersei's own crimes.]] Then, just to rub salt in the wound, [[spoiler:her actions towards Jaime come back to bite her in the ass when he refuses to champion for her and instead continues on his own campaign.]]
** Robb, Catelyn, and most of the Stark campaign gets screwed by [[spoiler:Robb marrying the wrong woman and pissing off House Frey, leading to The Red Wedding.]] [[EvilDetectingDog Readers should see this one coming, though.]]
** Arguably, the entire country of Westeros got screwed when Eddard Stark met Joffrey Baratheon. [[spoiler:Instead of allowing Lord Stark to live in exchange for a false confession, the newly-crowned Joffrey has him executed, and thus the War of the Five Kings is kicked off with a bang.]]
* The villains of the last ''[[TheChroniclesOfNarnia Narnia]]'' book ''TheLastBattle''; Shift, Ginger, and the Calormene warlord Rishdan, all meet a nasty end due to one horrifying Unknown Unknown: [[spoiler: the demon Tash is ''real''. And ''pissed''.]]
* [[StrawVulcan Archmagos Khobotov]] in ''SoulDrinkers'' discovers a few problems with his plan for stealing the Soulspear and back-engineering it - one Unknown Unknown and two Unknown Knowns.
** Unknown Known 1: he threatened Space Marines with a spacegoing artillery piece and [[StrawVulcan assumed they'd do the logical thing and back down]], despite the fact that these Marines are descended from the most headstrong of the loyal Primarchs, and Marines are [[HonorBeforeReason not very logical people]] in any case.
** Unknown Known 2: threatening a star fort without considering that there may be vehicles on board...vehicles the Soul Drinkers used to take over the artillery piece.
** Unknown Unknown from later in the book: [[spoiler: a Daemon Prince of Tzeentch was running the whole thing as a XanatosGambit, and turned up to take the Soulspear for himself]].
* The ''Series/DoctorWho'' short story collection "Short Trips and Side Steps" featured a story called 'The Android Maker of Calderon IV'. The title character has meticulously engineered a plan to get revenge on the Third Doctor (who thwarted his plan to set up a technocracy) and assassinate the planet's government by building an android in the form of the Doctor responsible as a suicide bomber. Then he activates the return beacon the Doctor left behind...and the Fourth Doctor steps out, giving us a demonstration of the Unknown Unknown, and a marvellous quote for anyone who's ever been on the receiving end of this trope:
-->''Bugger.''
* A Type 4 blows up the BigBad Storm King's XanatosGambit in TadWilliams' fantasy epic ''[=~Memory, Sorrow, and Thorn~=]''. Specifically, he didn't care who showed up for the final ritual to [[spoiler:unite the Three Swords and reverse time so he could return to Osten Ard]], but one of those people turned out to have been primed to figure out his weakness at the very last second, and another happened to be carrying the ChekhovsGun necessary to defeat him afterwards.
* A Type 4 is what brings Sauron's downfall in ''TheLordOfTheRings'', specifically that [[EvilCannotComprehendGood he never thought that anyone would actually deny the power of the Ring]], nonetheless that two insignificant creatures would actually have the audacity to sneak into Mordor and then destroy his RingOfPower.
** The Witch-King had an OhCrap moment when he realized that [[spoiler: [[NoManOfWomanBorn women can use swords]]. ]]
*** Sauron was right, in fact--nobody denied the power of the Ring in the end. Of course he couldn't possibly fathom that one of those would be idiot enough to victory dance on a cliff above a massive lava pit...
**** Tolkien noted in correspondence that part of Saruon's problem was a more basic miscomprehension; he believed that after the Fall of Numenor, God had ceased to care what happened to His creation, that the Second Fall of Man had been the last straw. He was wrong.
** Sauron really had won, by all accounts. Aragorn's army was hopelessly outnumbered, and Frodo had claimed The Ring for himself. In a way, this trope is double subverted. Early on, Gandalf notes that they have the advantage because Sauron cannot comprehend the idea of someone trying to destroy The Ring. What Gandalf didn't see coming was that ''Sauron'' was right. In Mordor, where the Ring's power was greatest, ''no one'' could resist it. Sauron's flaw was an example of GenreBlindness. He assumed that Middle Earth is a CrapsackWorld, when it was not. What he didn't see coming was the almost literal DeusExMachina that caused Gollum to fall to his death. As it was an accident, the only real way to interpret this is an act of fate.
* In ''[[CiaphasCain Cain's Last Stand]]'', Varan gets hit by type three in that [[spoiler: he didn't know that Cain's aid, Jurgen, was a [[AntiMagic blank]], so when he met up with Cain to discuss [[ISurrenderSuckers the terms of surrender]], the psychic ability that allowed him to instantly convert people to his cause wouldn't work. Cain ends up kicking his ass off a skyscraper. Literally.]]
* [[{{Discworld}} Lord Vetinari]] subverts the trope by accounting for [=~Didn't See That Coming~=]. Instead of planning, he waits until the unexpected (or the expected--he has a very firm grasp of human nature) happens, then drives the situation to his advantage from there. Even when it seems like he's miscalculated, people prove every bit as stupid or clever, dogged or unmotivated, loyal or treacherous as he expects.
* In latest addition to TheWheelOfTime series, ''The Gathering Storm'', Rand [[spoiler:pretends to begin playing Graendal's game of manipulation and subterfuge, then obliterates the palace she's in with a column of balefire.]]
-->''How do I outthink someone smarter than I am?''
** The following book [[spoiler:subverts this. Apparently, one way to handle Unknown Unknowns is to spy on your enemy until the last possible second, and have someone around that can serve as a body double...]]
* ''Literature/HarryPotter'': "Nobody will ever guess that I've made {{Soul Jar}}s, and even if they do they will never find them. What? They did and they did? FUUUUUUUUUUUUU-"
** Voldy has one as well before the series takes place. He seriously did not expect a mother's love [[EvilCannotComprehendGood to cause his curse to backfire like it did]]. He later admits his mistake...[[ChekhovsGun but he doesn't]] ''[[ChekhovsGun learn]]'' [[ChekhovsGun from it]].
** The legacy of the Elder Wand, which Voldemort so desired in ''Deathly Hallows'', is suppose to die with Dumbledore, having have Snape killing him '''by his command'''. However, unexpected and unbeknown to everyone till the very end, Draco Malfoy has already inadvertently gained the wand's allegiance at the end of ''The Half-Blood Prince'' by Disarming Dumbledore (thus defeating him) beforehand. Then a few months later, Harry overpowers Malfoy at the Malfoy Manor, which subsquently tranfers the Elder Wand's ownership to '''him'''. According to Wandlores, one only have to defeat the Elder Wand's current master to win over its ownership, whether or not the previous master was in possession of the wand does not matter. Thus, even though Voldemort is in possession of the Elder Wand in the final battle, he cannot unleash its full power, nor can he harm Harry with it, as the wand has already sworn allegiance to Harry, making him its true master.
* Caesar from MatthewReilly's ''Area 7'' puts a microwave transmitter on the president's heart, so that he can set explosives to blow up half of America the moment he dies. [[spoiler:He also puts one on his own heart to prevent the heroes killing him if his plan fails.]] He didn't anticipate that the heroes could fake the signal using the black box from an AWACS plane [[spoiler:allowing Schofield to [[CombatPragmatist just shoot him]].]]
* in the forth EarthsChildren book. Attaroa try to kill Ayla to show her tribe what happen to those who resist her, only to be killed by wolf who has been hiding in the woods. Since [[ExactlyWhatItSaysOnTheTin wolf]] is the world first domesticated wolf, there really wasn't any way Attaroa could have even suspect that he exists
* The appendix of {{Dune}} (the first Dune book) argues that the Bene Geserit order should have foreseen that the Kwisatz Haderach they were trying to create would not serve the order.
** They were also making it easy for their members to fake being messiahs in case of emergency, so they underestimated the real thing.
* In ''FromRussiaWithLove'', Kerim gives a speech on this trope:
-->This is a billiard table... And you have hit your white ball and it is traveling easily and quietly towards the red. The pocket is alongside. Fatally, inevitably, you are going to hit the red and the red is going into that pocket. It is the law of the billiard table. But, outside the orbit of these things, a jet pilot has fainted and his plane is diving straight at the billiard room, or a gas main is about to explode... And the building collapses on you and on top of the billiard table. Then what has happened to that white ball that could not miss the red ball, and to the red ball that could not miss the pocket? The white ball could not miss according to the laws of the billiard table. But the laws of the billiard table are not the only laws.
* ''[[CallahansCrosstimeSaloon Callahan's Lady]]'' has a couple of doozies in its final story. The Professor, the [[ConMan World's Greatest Conman]], bought $50,000 in counterfeit ten-dollar bills from [[PsychoForHire Tony Donuts]]. After the money had been disposed of, Tony demanded the bogus bills back, so the Professor was forced to [[TheCaper rob a bank, to pass real money to Tony for his fakes]]. Unfortunately, after bringing Tony the [[SchmuckBait nice, neatly bound sequential bills]], Tony [[spoiler: realizes the money isn't his counterfeit cash, because ''he'd never figured out how to work the serial number increment mechanism on his press'', and thus all his counterfeit money had ''the same exact serial number''.]] Perfect example of a type 4; clever people have troubles properly accounting for real stupidity.
** Subsequently, Tony falls to a type 3 -- [[spoiler: he's not in a caper novel, [[GenreShift he's in a time travel book]]. He's prevented from murdering the professor via 1) time/space travel [[BigDamnHeroes getting the heroes there on time]] and 2) future technology [[CoolAndUnusualPunishment permanently removing his capacity for physical violence]] -- he ends up with catastrophic failure of coordination any time he tries to hurt someone.]] The GenreShift is too much for him.
* The BigBad of ''Tantalize'' (a ''Literature/{{Twilight}}'' knockoff), had a pretty good plan and executed it well, but got well and truly screwed by something he never anticipated: [[spoiler: ''three'' of his FiveBadBand were secretly werepeople who betrayed him, killing his fourth and last ally in the process.]] To be fair, [[AssPull the readers didn't see it coming, either.]]
** Also, he didn't expect that [[spoiler: Quincie would abandon him for Kieran after all]], though that might more accurately be {{Hubris}}.
* In the ''Literature/HonorHarrington'' novel ''The Short Victorious War'', Havenite battlecruisers expecting a lone Manticoran light cruiser stumble upon a dreadnought. [[CurbStompBattle The results are... obvious.]]
** ''Mission of Honor''. Manticore was on alert and ready for trouble, but [[spoiler: Oyster Bay]] still succeeded because [[spoiler: the Mesans were not using impellers, which the Manties knew to look out for, but their new spider drives, which were a completely new technology.]]
* Pretty much the reaction of the Malwa Empire and Link every time their carefully-made plans encounter a Byzantine general named [[BelisariusSeries Belisarius]].
** A prime example was when he [[TrojanHorse walked into an enemy-held city as a nameless "prisoner"]] of a [[spoiler:unit of Kushans who'd changed sides]] that the enemy had no idea existed; the men were believed to have been wiped out with the rest of another Malwan force that had been obliterated.
* A ''spectacular'' type four happens in ''[[CodexAlera Princeps' Fury]]'' to [[spoiler: [[TheChessmaster Gaius Sextus]] during the fall of Alera Imperia]]
-->[[spoiler: Gaius: Crows. Didn't even look at them twice]]
* ''NuklearAge'''s Dr. Menace encounters one every few seconds, as one after another of her plots fail in ''DeusExMachina'' style. Her first kidnapping plot failed when a just-introduced supporting character happened to catapult into her abandoned warehouse base, destroying the building, her orbital death ray failed when Nuklear Man decided to show off by firing a Plazma Beam into the sky, her plan to convince Nuklear Man to turn evil via telepathy failed when Dr. Genius happened to contact him telepathically soon afterward and he mentioned it in passing, her plan to capture her alien visitor failed when the alien happened to be an nigh-omnipotent god... Her plans not only failed, but failed in the most frustrating style possible. It is mentioned several times that she was finding it more and more difficult not to start screaming.
* In ''The Scar'', Silas Fennec succumbs to a Type 4 when he overlooks [[spoiler: Armada's tugboats and their potential as explosive ramships.]] His oversight directly leads to [[spoiler: the utter decimation of the New Crobuzon fleet.]]
[[/folder]]
[[folder:Live Action Television]]
* Pretty much every episode of ''{{Leverage}}'', starting with Episode 1.
* In an episode of ''TheSarahConnorChronicles'' a local gangster discovers that Sarah is a fugitive and tries to blackmail her. To make sure she would play along, he sends one of his henchman to kidnap her children. Since Sarah's "daughter" is actually a [[DeceptivelyHumanRobots killing machine]] from the future, that plan goes [[HilarityEnsues really bad, really fast]].
* An episode of ''StarTrekDeepSpaceNine'' featured the return of a bunch of hyper-intelligent, genetically engineered "friends" of Dr. Bashir's, who, upon thinking on the Dominion war situation, decide it was in the best interest of all involved if the Federation surrendered or was defeated quickly and the Dominion won (which would save billions of lives in the long run, and end in a galaxy-wide rebellion to overthrow it). They go to give the Dominion some classified Starfleet tactical data, but are stopped when one of their own tells on them. Dr. Bashir rubs it in, explaining that if one person can uproot their brilliant plan, then maybe their calculations might become nil due to the uncalculatability of human nature.
** A very subtle double example, as the payoff is in an earlier episode: the Dominion worked out the ''exact same'' projections, and had a counter to it: [[spoiler:When they won, they were going to purge Earth, as an example.]]
* In an episode of ''{{Torchwood}}'', a paedophile tries to force a little girl into his car. He really had no way of knowing that [[FairyCompanion fairies]] were interested in the girl and that they were [[TheFairFolk not the Disney kind]]...
** In ''Children of Earth'', Jack Harkness falls prey to a Type Four: he knew that the 456 were capable of [[spoiler: curing viruses deadly to humans]], but it never occurred to him that they could create and instantly release one if anyone tried to resist their demands.
* The Volume Four finale of ''{{Series/Heroes}}'', "An Invisible Thread" involves [[spoiler:Peter having used Sylar's shapeshifting power to impersonate the President, heading off Sylar's attempt to shapeshift into the President and become him. From Peter's dialogue, it is clear that Sylar probably knew that Peter had replicated one of his powers, but wouldn't have expected him to have taken something so mundane.]]
** The Volume Four premiere had a Type Four. Danko, having rounded up most of the specials and put them on a plane to a detention facility, agrees to free Claire in order to mollify Nathan Petrelli (her father). He admits that her power ([[GoodThingYouCanHeal regeneration]]) doesn't make her a threat to society. However, he didn't know that Nathan has no real control over Claire, or that being immortal and all but immune to pain means that she can and will carry out acts normal people would consider suicidal. [[spoiler:Claire escapes from Nathan, gets on the plane via the landing gear, frees the captive specials, and ends up causing the plane to crash. Now the government has to round up the specials all over again, only this time they're actively evading capture.]]
* After capturing [[{{StargateSG-1}} SG-1]] in a planet he recently conquered, Cronos decided to publicly execute them so that the locals would see how foolish it is to try to resist him. Unfortunately for him, during the execution it was revealed that [[spoiler:they were actually SG-1 robotic Doppelgangers]]. Kind of hard to keep claiming to be an [[SufficientlyAdvancedAlien all-knowing god]] when you can't even [[JawDrop keep your jaw closed.]]
* In ''TheOffice'' every time Dwight tries to do something manipulative it falls prey to this. He even lampshades it.
--> Just once, I would like to be a [[TheChessMaster puppetmaster]] and have nothing go wrong. Just once.
* On ''BuffyTheVampireSlayer'', [[BigBad the Master]] had planned to kill Buffy, gaining the power to escape his prison and open the Hellmouth, bringing about TheEndOfTheWorldAsWeKnowIt. If he thought about Buffy's allies, he dismissed them as powerless. Unfortunately, while his plan to kill Buffy worked, Xander knew CPR. Buffy therefore returns from the dead, and proceeds to kill the Master.
** Considering the Master has been in a prison for hundreds of years, it's possible that [=CPR=] itself was an "unknown unknown" to him. The idea that a human could come back to life through non-supernatural means may well have been completely foreign to him.
** In Season Two, Spike and Drusilla had a plan to destroy the world. They had resurrected the Judge, a demon who, according to prophecy, could not be killed by any weapon forged. They did not take into account several hundred years of advancement in weapons technology, and [[NoManOfWomanBorn Buffy blew away the Judge with a rocket launcher]].
** Given that The Judge was defeated last time he rose up too, they might not have actually expected him to destroy the world (which Spike rather likes), but they were certainly expecting a bigger death toll than ''two''. One of which was one of their own minions.
* On ''CovertAffairs'', Auggie experiences a 4-5 combination when he appeals to his ex-girlfriend Natasha for help on a case, and is somewhat surprised and dismayed when she refuses to help, still angry that he landed her in jail previously. He says the trope name verbatim when she slaps him upon their first reunion...except he means it literally, having been blinded since their last encounter.
* In ''{{Babylon 5}}'', after Jha'dur, the last [[ANaziByAnyOtherName Dilgar]] was captured; she managed to get a pardon in exchange for developing her immortality serum. Just before she was about to go to earth she gloated to Sinclair that the serum can only be manufactured by killing [[PoweredByAForsakenChild other people]] and that her capture was actually part of her plan to make the rest of the races just as bad as hers was. What she didn't realize was that the vorlons were not the enigmatic reclusive weirdoes that they seemed to be, but were actually [[spoiler: [[TheChessmaster manipulative ]]Precursors]] who saw right through her plan and destroyed her ship to stop it. Also, since the vorlons themselves were forced to act openly and directly instead of manipulating events from the [[AccidentalPun shadows]] as they usually did, Jha'dur herself could be considered a SpannerInTheWorks.
* ''Series/TheShadowLine'':
** Gatehouse gets this in his first encounter with Glickman, when he realises that Glickman knew he was coming in advance and prepared countermeasures; namely, [[spoiler:a large bomb, which destroys his shop and almost kills Gatehouse]].
** In the next episode this happens to Glickman himself. [[spoiler:He contacts his girlfriend not knowing that she's working for Counterpoint. She then stabs him to death.]]
[[/folder]]
[[folder:Tabletop RPG]]
* On the one hand, Game Masters are very often on the receiving end of PC ADD (not AD&D, though the similarity is telling) and are often forced into {{Railroading}} the plot. On the other, PC's can be struck by a ''very'' creative GM who gleefully goes OffTheRails with them and reprimands misbehavior [[RocksFallEveryoneDies creatively.]]
* This happens quite a bit to the Thousand Sons Chaos Space Marine chapter in ''{{Warhammer 40000}}''. [[XanatosGambit They plan any action they take for years, carefully plot out every single possibility...]] Then their rivals, the Space Wolves, just run in and beat the shit out of them when they least expect it. You'd think they'd learn by now.
** One example took place in the Gothic War. Chaos runs in and has the Imperial Navy on the ropes, they're clearly winning with their plans falling perfectly into place. Then out of the blue the Ork pirates which have been pestering the Imperial decide it might be fun to attack Chaos for a while.
[[/folder]]
[[folder:Video Games]]
* Calypso sometimes runs into this in ''TwistedMetal''; he doesn't always pick the most dependable players. [[MonsterClown Sweet Tooth]] tends to do this most often, but he's gotten caught off-guard by others as well. At least ''four'' characters turn the tables on him in ''Twisted Metal 2''.
* ''{{Persona 3}}''. [[spoiler:After his [[TheReveal Reveal]] as TheChessmaster, Shuji Ikutsuki plans to sacrifice most of the party by forcing RobotGirl Aigis to murder them, in order to bring about TheEndOfTheWorldAsWeKnowIt. He's just about to succeed... and at that point, the player is reminded that Ikutsuki forgot to crucify the dog, too.]]
** [[spoiler: [[ScoobyDoo "And I would have gotten away with it, too! If it weren't for you meddling kids and that dog!]]]]
* And it happens again in ''{{Persona 4}}'', if you manage to find the true ending. The game itself works against you here, making you wait until most of the way through the good ending and then ignore two of its attempts to turn you around, that it's really no wonder the true final boss is surprised you got that far.
* In ''{{Command and Conquer}}'', [[MagnificentBastard Kane's]] always a step ahead. Of everyone. GDI, Scrin, his own generals. Then in ''Command & Conquer 3'' [[spoiler: he undergoes a VillainousBreakdown when Kilian's forces ally with GDI. And then in Kane's Wrath, when it's revealed just how proficient Kane is at playing a XanatosRoulette, he's yet again surprised when Alexa reveals to have tried to destroy LEGION, and tricked Kane into executing Kilian, out of her ''devotion to Kane''. That said, he still wins out in the end]].
* ''PlanescapeTorment'' has a backstory example: Fhjull the Forked-Tongue, LawfulEvil demon manages to trap a deva, a very incarnation of truth and LawfulGood, only to have it undone by the fact that the deva ''lied'' to him. The result of this (which is never precisely explained) is that Fhjull is now trapped into performing charity to any who asks.
* In ''BlazBlue'', Hakumen says a variation of this in his ''Calamity Trigger'' Arcade path when [[spoiler: Nu-13 turns out to be the ninth fight instead of the last one.]]
* In ''BioShock'', [[spoiler: Fontaine]]'s plot to [[spoiler: get Jack to kill Andrew Ryan to let him take over Rapture]] went of without a ''hitch''....except for those Little Sisters....
* ''No one'' seemed to see Yuna and her Guardians coming in ''FinalFantasyX'', least of all [[spoiler:Lady Yunalesca, who has never been challenged before and was certainly not expecting to get the shit kicked out of her [[OneWingedAngel horrifying medusa-head form]], thereby destroying the traditional (but not, as she claimed, "only") way to defeat Sin.]]
** Since the only way that she could reasonably be defeated was if the player read a guide beforehand, that was probably a reasonable point of view.
** Nobody predicted that [[spoiler:''Sin itself'', or rather Jecht, was capable of setting into motion events that would lead to its destruction.]]
* In ''FinalFantasyXIII'', [[spoiler: Barthandelus']] plan to turn the l'Cie into the instruments of Cocoon's destruction hinges on them breaking when he slams them into the DespairEventHorizon, inducing them to follow their [[YogSothothSays Focus]] and using the power of [[SuperpoweredEvilSide Ragnarok]] to kill Orphan. [[spoiler: Fang]] comes close in the end, but not close enough: [[spoiler: Barthandelus']] failure to recognize humans as more than mere tools is the undoing of his schemes, as the l'Cie ultimately save Cocoon ''[[LiteralGenie by subverting their Focus]]''.
* Sun Li, Glorious Strategist for the ''JadeEmpire''. Yeah, marvelous XanatosGambit. Flawless, right down to [[spoiler: deliberately putting flaws in the Player Character's fighting style]]. But...he really didn't expect that [[spoiler:The Water Dragon]] was running an equally good one to counter it.
* [[MassEffect Harbinger]] recognized [[PlayerCharacter Commander Shepard]] as a major threat, and had him/her eliminated. He didn't count on Cerberus to resurrect Shepard, rebuild the Normandy, and point him/her right at the Collectors.
** [[spoiler:The original Shadow Broker didn't see the betrayal by his AlwaysChaoticEvil yahg agent betraying him until it was too late.]]
** The Reapers didn't plan for [[spoiler:the Protheans to stop the keepers from activating the Citadel Relay]].
*** This one is noteworthy because it relied on the Reapers only weakness: [[spoiler: their expectations. They EXPECTED the Protheans to fight until the last, to die, and therefore end. They DID NOT expect the Protheans to give up on their own existence and FlingALightIntoTheFuture, essentially using their last fighting chance to give another, as-yet-unknown species a fighting chance.]]
* In ''TalesOfSymphonia'', [[RebelLeader Yuan]] has a foolproof plan for getting hold of the PlotCoupon that will allow him to save the world: all he has to do is [[HostageForMacguffin threaten the son]] of the person who can unlock the seal on the [[PhysicalGod Summon Spirit]] that grants it. It probably would have worked, if the BigBad hadn't been traveling with the party incognito...
* Pity poor [[VampireTheMasqueradeBloodlines Sebastian LaCroix]]. For an ineffectual-seeming idiot Prince, he manages to make [[SurprisinglyEliteCannonFodder surprisingly good use of the PC]] and then [[spoiler: turn the entire city against you when he [[YouHaveOutlivedYourUsefulness doesn't need you anymore]]]]. Problem is, there was simply no way he could count on [[spoiler: you defeating the Blood Hunt and any and all other opposition by yourself, Caine empowering you to defeat his Dominate, ''and'' Jack [[ZeroWing setting him up the bomb]]]]. Okay, the first might have been something he should have expected, but the rest almost amounts to a DiabolusExMachina from his perspective.
* Given that [[CorruptCorporateExecutive Vogel]] used the Boss to kill pretty much all of his personal enemies, it's kinda strange that he didn't expect the Boss to first survive waves of bad guys, then be pissed off afterward.
[[/folder]]
[[folder:Web Comics]]
* [[http://www.darthsanddroids.net/episodes/0120.html This]] ''DarthsAndDroids'' strip neatly showcases how PC's can become incredibly paranoid of these dangers (make sure to read the comments at the bottom).
* ''LookingForGroup'': [[http://www.lfgcomic.com/page/229 This strip]].
-->'''Beholder:''' Thus is was written...
-->'''The Archmage:''' This was not supposed to happen.
* ''Webcomic/OrderOfTheStick'': [[http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0386.html "You know, the first two, I probably should've seen coming. The leprechaun costume? Not so much."]]
** The identity of the champion.
---> [[spoiler:Thog: thog is the Champion, thog's friends! And thog will keep fighting to the end! ]]
* Happens all the time in ''SluggyFreelance''. Often followed by Riff's CatchPhrase, "Let me check my notes."
** One particularly memorable moment is an inversion.
---> '''Riff''': Torg, why are there pants on the floor?
---> '''Torg''': They're my emergency pants.
---> '''Riff''': ...why do you have emergency pants?
---> '''Torg''': I don't know, but in [[BringMyBrownPants every situation]] I could think up, I was ''glad to have them''.
*** Followed about twenty strips later by magical moths that eat all clothing. '''"[[CrazyPrepared This looks like a job for]] ''[[CrazyPrepared emergency pants!]]''"''' He ''did'' see it coming, even though he couldn't have.
* In ''Webcomic/GirlGenius'', [[ThirtyGambitPileup no character ever gets]] to have everything go according to plan. Something always happens just when you least expect it. They can only be better or worse at [[XanatosSpeedChess being on top of the chaos]].
* ''{{SSDD}}'', the Oracle is usually successful in his {{Xanatos Roulette}}s due to the fact that he was designed to make accurate predictions, but [[http://www.poisonedminds.com/d/20010601.html apparently]] TimeTravel throws him off.
* Kale Williams utters those exact words in the QuetzaDrake's ''FurthiaHigh'' comic, when [[spoiler:Campy shows up to the school dance with a male date.]]
** Ashley averts it when she calmly replies, "I did."
* In an ''{{XKCD}}'' [[http://www.xkcd.com/592 comic]], some nerds figure out how to end all relationship drama (via a mathematic equation, naturally), but upon testing their theory in the real world, all the relationship drama, in fact, SPIKES, leading one to say "Holy shit... people are ''complicated!''
* BobAndGeorge: Our IdiotHero is on the edge of a cliff with The Yellow Demon jumping at him -- [[http://www.bobandgeorge.com/archives/000709c so he runs back and the cliff falls]]. Bet you the demon didn't see it coming.
** And the sickly Met Demon actually has an attack. [[http://www.bobandgeorge.com/archives/050524c X uses the trope name]]
* The defunct webcomic ''Filthy Lies'' had one character daydream a SelfInsert fic where he was a JerkassStu (using Felix Felicis, for example, to have a threesome with Hermione and Ginny) in the events of HarryPotter/{{Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince}}...who, during the climax, ended up screwing everything up so that all the good guys died. [[spoiler:He even took the big moment away from Snape by accidentally bumping Dumbledore off the top of the tower with poor broom handling before Snape could perform Avada Kedavra.]]
-->'''Snape:''' I did ''not'' see that coming.
* In ''ElGoonishShive'', when Abe disarmed the elf. Anybody who forgets he's fighting a wizard after having to overcome his spells just to get there ''deserves'' to be [[spoiler:[[MacrossMissileMassacre spammed]] by [[http://egscomics.com/?date=2009-07-04 exploding crows]]]] on the spot.
* A chain of these in ''Alanna''. [[spoiler: [[BigBad Tristan]] has forcibly bonded OB, the god of lightning and dissection, to himself, and EB, the god of Frost and Destruction, to the protagonist]]. All he needs to do is capture the protagonist, and he pretty much wins. He knows that the protagonist has a lightning sprite that can absorb his electrical attacks to become stronger, but considers it to be a non-factor because sprites are easily banished. He also knows that [[spoiler: EB's creations will obey her, but isn't worried because he has a small army of Amalgams, and also knows that OB's creations can only function under OB's orders]]. However, he was completely unaware of several important facts: firstly, [[spoiler: OB's creations had a small degree of autonomy, and had built a clone of OB to guide them; Tristan didn't know about this because Fake!OB was non-functional, but the protagonist managed to get it operational. In return, Fake!OB sent OB's creations against Tristan for the final battle, and also gave the protagonist's lightning sprite a warding that made it impossible for Tristan to banish. lastly, it gave her a means to communicate with the imprisoned Real!OB]]. Tristan's [[OhCrap reaction]] to this is absolutely [[CrowningMomentOfFunny priceless]]. [[spoiler: More importantly however, Tristan is unaware that there was a complication during EB's bonding]]. At the start of the story, "Spirit Guides" (Actually [[NoFourthWall the readers, who give the protagonist suggestions on what to do]]) were bonded to the protagonist, [[spoiler: occupying the place where EB was supposed to go, meaning that EB is actually bound to ''the readers'', instead of the protagonist. Since we can sever our connection with the protagonist at any time, the readers are essentially provided with a big red button labeled "Screw Tristan's plans six ways to Sunday." And Tristan certainly couldn't have predicted the readers using this information to prove to the original OB that Tristan's plan couldn't work, and that this would cause OB to take advantage of Tristan's unstable mental state when he tried to go OneWingedAngel to leave his body]].
[[/folder]]
[[folder:Web Originals]]
* In ''TheSalvationWar'', this is the downfall of several figures in the story, not least of which include the antagonists [[spoiler:Satan and Yahweh]], while in contrast much of human military tech shown in the story is concerned with trying to prevent this. In particular, [[FourStarBadass General]] [[spoiler:of the Armies]] [[TheStrategist David Petraeus]] is shown on several occasions accounting for known unknowns.
* Despite all of the completely ludicrous things they managed to pull off in [[DoctorHorriblesSingAlongBlog Dr. Horrible]], I still don't think anybody was expecting Bad Horse to be an ''actual'' horse.
* In the "40K Rejects" series by Mini War Gaming dot com, in Episode 3 (''The Tale of an Ork''), Captain Slaughter and co. are looking for the five Ork Shokk Attack Guns. They capture several Orks in combat, and Slaughter interrogates them one by one. The first few are gibbering idiots, but the third is quite articulate. His intelligence and knowledge intrigue Slaughter, who is subsequently shocked to discover that [[spoiler:the Ork is actually "the Warboss in disguise"!]]. Slaughter's reaction to it is priceless:
-->Slaughter: Out of all the unforeseen things I've ever seen!
* Ranger has multiple times fallen victim to the first type in ComicFuryWerewolf. He's several times forgotten key facts which are public information due to focusing too hard on the details. One of the worst is how he's twice forgotten about the vigilantes, and even [[spoiler: forgot about the alpha's ability to convert]] until he was dead and too late to warn the village.
[[/folder]]
[[folder:Western Animation]]
* Happens quite a bit in ''JohnnyTest'', leading to a character [[CatchPhrase using this line]].
* In an episode of ''SupermanTheAnimatedSeries'', Brainiac is surprised when he blasts off {{Batman}}'s suit [[spoiler:and {{Superman}} is underneath it, having taken on the guise of Batman with Bruce Wayne having gone missing (due to Brainiac kidnapping and brainwashing him for his plans)]]. His reaction is typically understated...
-->'''Brainiac:''' "[[spoiler:Kal-El]]! ...This occurrence was highly improbable."
* And let's not forget Amanda Waller in ''JusticeLeagueUnlimited''.
-->'''Lex Luthor:''' Did you really think you could take me all by yourself?
-->'''Amanda Waller:''' Actually, yeah. But on the off chance I might've been wrong...
-->[The founding Leaguers have entered through the window]
-->'''Flash:''' Ta-da.
** Which is immediately followed by another one: It turns out that ''Brainiac'' is underneath Lex's suit. ''And '''skin'''''. I guess he learned his lesson...
** Then, of course, there was the episode "Wild Cards." In the middle of Joker's bomb threat on Vegas being aired as a reality TV show, Batman manages to talk to Harley Quinn alone. He insinuates that Joker seems awfully close to Ace, the new henchgirl. Harley storms off toward her puddin' in a jealous rage, but not before throwing and landing a solid punch on Batman for enlightening her. Cue to a shot of Joker staring blankly at a television screen after the exchange is over.
--> '''Joker''': Have to admit, I didn't see ''that'' one coming...
* ''[=~Avatar: The Last Airbender~=]'': Azula, the DangerouslyGenreSavvy [[TheChessmaster Chessmaster]] and expertly MagnificentBastard, "miscalculated" one thing, possibly in her life: [[spoiler:[[EvilCannotComprehendGood Mai's loyalty to Zuko]].]]
** In the AlternateUniverse short "[[HighSchoolAU School Time Shipping]]", Zuko, understandably, utters this when Katara reveals her choice of date to the dance: [[spoiler:the Blue Spirit, Zuko's ''[[SecretIdentity alter ego]]''.]]
** [[CompleteMonster Fire Lord Ozai]] faces a couple in the last episode: an Unknown Known [[spoiler: Aang regaining control of the Avatar State]] and then and Unknown Unknown [[spoiler: Energy Bending]].
* This is how Homer winds up going to a Krusty the Clown themed clown college in one episode of ''TheSimpsons'' (after being bombarded by new billboards telling him all the stuff he has to buy). He gets up in the middle of dinner, declares his intentions, and walks away. Bart just states, "I don't think any of us expected him to say that."
* One episode of ''AdventuresOfSonicTheHedgehog'', "Grounder the Genius", had the eponymous bumbling robot minion accidentally end up with Dr. Robotnik's stolen Super Genius Program in his head; he instantly transforms into an [[TheChessmaster uber-chessmaster]] with enough smarts to incapacitate Sonic and decide that the bad doctor [[TurnedAgainstTheirMasters has no place in his own schemes for world domination]]. In the end, he has Sonic and Tails on the ropes with a lightning generator and announces that he's thought of every possible occurrence...[[DidntSeeThatComing except the one where fellow bumbling robot minion Scratch shows up trying to help]] [[LosingYourHead and accidentally knocks his head off.]]
* In an episode of ''{{ThunderCats}}'', Mumm-Ra and the evil Mutants had succeeded in capturing ALL the Thundercats - except Snarf. When the Mutants discuss whether they should get him too, they all laugh at the notion that little, dorky Snarf could in any way possibly affect their plans now that they've essentially won. Little did they realize Snarf's talent for communicating with animals, as well as being so small and weak to be ignored to begin with, turned out to be their undoing.
* It was almost a RunningGag in ''KimPossible'' how many bad guys would have Kim and/or Ron absolutely nailed to the wall, fail to account for [[TeamPet Rufus]] chewing through their bonds or hitting the self-destruct for the KillSat, and then are absolutely stunned that their plans were foiled in the end. And they never learned otherwise no matter how many times it happened to the same villains.
** Well actually an early episode Drakken did manage to spot Rufus in time to foil him (or rather a mind controlled Kim pointed it out). But he winds up underestimating Kim's brothers when he doesn't believe a portable machine they made could stop him.
** And then the villains in the GrandFinale face an ''[[Awesome/KimPossible awesome]]'' Unknown Unknown in the form of Ron's Mystical Monkey Power.
* This was one of Hunter's {{Catch Phrase}}s in ''RoadRovers''.
** "Yet another unexpected twist."
* The events of the first ''{{Futurama}}'' ChristmasEpisode lead Fry to lament, "I never thought it would end this way... gunned down by [[BadassSanta Santa Claus]]. Honestly, I didn't see it coming!"
* In ''MyLittlePonyFriendshipIsMagic'', Applejack says this in "Swarm of the Century", when the voracious parasprites, instead of eating her apple crop, ate her barn instead.
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