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History Analysis / ValkyriaChroniclesIII

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* If the country being threatened doesn't believe the extortionist is really prepared to nuke them if demands aren't met, they will simply call the bluff, which so far in history has always resulted in the extortionist deciding not to actually do it. Throughout 2022 and into 2023, the Putin regime repeatedly threatened to use tactical nukes if Ukraine kept trying to recapture the territories that Russia illegally annexed, and if the "collective West" kept increasing its military aid to Ukraine. When these red lines were repeatedly crossed and Russia didn't follow through with its threats, each subsequent threat was taken less seriously, and Russia's nuclear saber-rattling was dismissed as a symptom of their inability to achieve their goals on the battlefield. Both nuclear deterrence and nuclear coercion are thus devalued when you say you're going to do something, but then don't actually do it.

to:

* If the country being threatened doesn't believe the extortionist is really prepared to nuke them if demands aren't met, they will simply call the bluff, which so far in history has always resulted in the extortionist deciding not to actually do it. Throughout 2022 and into 2023, the Putin regime repeatedly threatened to use tactical nukes if Ukraine kept trying to recapture the territories that Russia illegally annexed, and if the "collective West" kept increasing its military aid to Ukraine. When these red lines were repeatedly crossed and Russia didn't follow through with its threats, each subsequent threat was taken less seriously, and Russia's nuclear saber-rattling was dismissed as a symptom of their inability to achieve their goals on the battlefield. Both nuclear deterrence and nuclear coercion are thus devalued when you say you're going to do something, but then don't actually do it.



But then we will have a Catch22Dilemma. The problem is that if Dahau threatens to blow up Randgriz unless the Emperor gives the Darcsens a new homeland, the Emperor still cannot give Dahau what he wants unless Dahau agrees to give up the Hammer of the Valkyrur afterwards. The reason is that as long as Dahau controls the Hammer, there will be nothing to stop him from making further demands upon the Empire as soon and as often as he likes. Heck, if Dahau keeps the ability to destroy the Empire's government at the press of a button, then in practice the Empire will cease to be an autonomous and self-governing state. Any deal in which they don't get the Hammer back from Dahau is unacceptable. But as we just established, Dahau ''can't'' give up the Hammer because it's his only protection against the Emperor killing him and going back on his word.\\

to:

But then we will have a Catch22Dilemma. The problem is that if Dahau threatens to blow up Randgriz Schwartzgrad unless the Emperor gives the Darcsens a new homeland, the Emperor still cannot give Dahau what he wants unless Dahau agrees to give up the Hammer of the Valkyrur afterwards. The reason is that as long as Dahau controls the Hammer, there will be nothing to stop him from making further demands upon the Empire as soon and as often as he likes. Heck, if Dahau keeps the ability to destroy the Empire's government at the press of a button, then in practice the Empire will cease to be an autonomous and self-governing state. Any deal in which they don't get the Hammer back from Dahau is unacceptable. But as we just established, Dahau ''can't'' give up the Hammer because it's his only protection against the Emperor killing him and going back on his word.\\

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