WMG / Arrow Confirmed

Oliver wasn't alone on the island

One can accept that Oliver's survival ordeal honed him into a lean, mean, muscled badass. One can accept (barely) that in five years he became a crack shot by reinventing archery with a homemade bow, and that he had previous knowledge of Buddhism that inspired him to keep a Buddhist symbol as a token for his sister. But nobody spontaneously learns martial arts combat training or the Russian language (to say nothing of hacking skills) alone on desolate island. Some person(s) was already on the island when Oliver arrived or arrived there later, trained Oliver in Russian and street fighting, then either died, was killed by Oliver, or abandoned Oliver on the island again. Or Oliver found a convenient if eclectic abandoned library of Introductory Russian, An Idiot's Guide to hacking, and Elementary Asskicking, and to kill five years, he memorized the lot.

• It's pretty clear he wasn't alone on the island. Considering that we saw Deathstroke's mask there, there's a chance he was with Deathstroke (Slade Wilson) on the island for most of the time. Later evidence shows another man with Oliver wearing a green hood that's teaching him archery.
• "Honor Thy Father" proves there was at least one other person on the island.
  • Unless that's an hallucination, a metaphorical death. Oliver always says he "died" on the island.
• Confirmed in "Lone Gunmen".

Diggle's brother was killed by Deadshot

In episode 3, Diggle mentioned that his brother is "out of the picture".One of the names tattooed on Deadshot's body is "Andrew Diggle"The name may just be (like Didggle's) a reference to Andy Diggle, co-creator of Green Arrow: Year One, but the coincidence is too much to overlook.

• The name is certainly strong evidence but am I the only one who would find that incredibly disappointing? Dig's conversation with his sister in law tells us that he died because of his job as a security consultant and it seems a little odd that someone would hire a high end assassin to take out a bodyguard. You could work a false flag wounded gazelle style conspiracy out of it I suppose but I was kind of hoping Diggle's brother was going to turn out to be one of the seemingly random security guards Green Arrow had cut down and that Oliver was going to learn a hard lesson on just why Batman is so hesitant to kill. :Update: Deadshot having killed Dig's brother is seemingly confirmed in episode 4.
• You don't hire an assassin to kill a bodyguard, sure. But you do hire a bodyguard to protect someone an assassin would kill and it's possible that one would die while doing so. Deadshot may very well have felt that to kill one target, he needed to kill another - EG Andrew Diggle was a Worthy Opponent.
  • I can see him killing Diggle for personal reasons though more out of professional pride than because of any sense of respect. An assassin who tattoo's every targets name onto his body after a successful hit probably isn't going to tattoo someone's name on because they just got in the way ala a bodyguard diving in front of a bullet unless they are extremely obsessive (I mean more obsessive than the tattoo thing would require in the first place). Though if Andrew managed to push the target out of the way or outsmart him with a decoy or anything that a sniper might find embarrassing Deadshot might kill him after he managed to kill the target in order to protect his reputation. Hence justifying the tattoo. Or they are going to go the conspiracy route where the bodyguard gets shot to make it look like a failed assassination so a politician gets a reputation boost or something but that seems far fetched.
  • Considering how good Deadshot is and what kind of professional he is, I don't see him signing up for a fake assassination or if he did, he'd probably wouldn't tattoo the guys name on him unless, as mentioned, Andrew did something big. It does suggest an alternative though where Deadshot was paid to kill Andrew but not told Andrew was a fake target.
• Confirmed in "Dead To Rights".

We haven't seen the last of the Not Quite Dead Deadshot.

He'll be back, minus an eye lost to arrow-fire, and bent on revenge against Arrow for maiming him. For an added twist, his daughter Zoe could be living in Star City.

• The eyepatch will become more of an implant this time around.
• For yet another twist: Deadshot will return as an Anti-Hero, seeking to join forces with Arrow to take down a mutual enemy. This will lead to conflict between Oliver and Diggle, because Deadshot killed Diggle's brother.
• I approve, Deadshot is, in the right writer's hands, way too interesting to be used up in one appearance. For another guess, maybe somehow this brush with death will leave him with his "death seeker" trait from the comics.
• Confirmed by Wordof God. The Man That Doesn't Miss will be back in a future episode.

In the next episode, John will help clear Oliver's name

...by disguising himself as Green Arrow when Oliver is present.

• This will somehow work despite Oliver!Arrow and Diggle!Arrow clearly being of different races.
  • It's possible that this is the episode where Huntress makes her first appearance. As long as its the cops don't see who is firing the hyper-accurate crossbow bolts they might just assume Arrow is in a "lets see if I can just use my arm darts" phase and that they have the wrong guy. Combine that with the almost comical amount of conflict of interest that inevitably arises when the arrested individual happens to be hated by the arrestee for getting his daughter killed and Oliver should be out of the slammer in half an hour. That said if she does show up she isn't going to get any actual focus until episode 8. Lets face it the episode titled "Vendetta" is obviously the main Huntress episode even if it isn't her first appearance.
    • OP is confirmed while Huntress entry is Jossed.

Moira will eventually decide to leave the Organization.

She realize it's damaging her family life and her love life with Walter. She's starting to regret being involved with Robert's death. However, the Organization will plan to have her assassinated, fearing she could be a loose end. The assassin will disguise him/herself as Green Arrow.

• She may not be able to, now that she betrayed Frank Chen in "Salvation". Blood is literally in her hands.
• As of the season finale, she revealed everything to the press and was arrested.

The "Merlyn" who will become Oliver's arch-nemesis will actually be played by John Barrowman

And Tommy will end up dead, either killed by this person or as a result of their actions.

• Tommy is still alive, but it is confirmed in 'Years End', the mid season finale, that the Dark Archer is Tommy's father, who is played by Barrowman.
• As of "Sacrifice", confirmed 100%. Merlyn is Oliver's enemy, and his scheme to level the Glades leads to Tommy's death.

Felicity Smoak will have words with Oliver and discover the truth.

He's already annoyed her by not giving her that expensive red wine he promised her, and he's been rather thinly disguising the very clearly extracirricular stuff he's been asking her to do.

• Confirmed, in parts: She does have words with Oliver about being a lying liar who lies, but admits she trusts him anyway and tell him about Moira's possible involvement in Walter's disappearance which prompts her to do the next part
• Confirmed, second part In "The Odyssey", she does discover Oliver's identity but he's the one that approached her about it not the other way around. She sticks around to help them, in part, to find Walter. Then she just doesn't end up leaving.

The Organization is trying to save Starling City by destroying it.

Malcolm Merlyn seems very driven by the death of his wife in a criminal act. Also, he wants to shut down the clinic she founded, stop a gentrification project, and when did he disown Tommy? When he ran a fundraiser for a legal aid organization. Plus the other members on the list all seem to be doing their part to turn Starling City into the worst hellhole it can be. The Plan very well could be to bring the whole thing crashing down then clear out the rubble and start over from scratch.

• Seems to be confirmed. As implied in "Salvation", they, heavily influenced by Malcolm, plan on destroyed the Glades.

Oliver didn't learn archery from Yao Fei, he learned it from Shado

It was shown that he has the same tattoo she does, implying a close relationship.

• Confirmed. Yao Fei's dead, and Shado not only showed she's a serious ass kicker, but also is set to train him according to previews.

The guy that Oliver refused to save on the island will eventually come back to kill him.

You know, assuming that he made it...

• Confirmed in the sense that he was working for Fyers all along and everything he told Oliver was nothing but a sob story.

Frank Chen will be killed off.

Malcolm will be getting close to the traitor, and Chen decides to take the fall for Moira.

• Alternately, Moira frames him.
• Confirmed. In "Salvation", Moira reluctantly sells him out to Malcolm resulting in him being killed by the Dark Archer.

Ollie will be inspired by Tommy's death

With the destruction of Starling City and the death of his best friend, Ollie will finally become the no-killing hero the fandom knows him as. In an odd way of honouring him, Ollie will adopt the name Green Arrow and will truly fight injustice in Starling City.

• Word of God and Stephen Amell have confirmed that Tommy's death, and more specifically what he thought of Oliver when he died, will leave a lasting impact on Oliver, and will dictate his actions for the remainder of the series.
  • Confirmed totally in the second season. Oliver doesn't want to kill people anymore, as he feels that it will dishonor Tommy's memory. It does happen as a last resort, but not as a matter of practice anymore.

Sarah Lance will be Back from the Dead.

Because they Never Found the Body, Rule of Drama dictates Sarah will reappear alive to reopen old wounds at the most awkward possible time—probably when Oliver and Laurel have reconciled or are even dating again. Sarah will be used as a hostage bargaining chip against Laurel and/or Oliver. Or she'll be an antagonistic figure who's brainwashed or herself out for revenge, angry at Oliver for leaving her to die and at her family for not searching for her.

• Makes sense- after all, if the Queen's Gambit is in a secret warehouse, why not Sarah too?
• Possibly confirmed. S1E16, Sarah's mom visits Laurel and tells her she suspects (emphasis on suspects) Sarah's alive.
  • Confirmed, the Black Canary has appeared and Word of God confirms its Sarah.

Black Canary is Sarah Lance.

We see a new vigilante at the end of the season 2 premiere, but we don't see her face. While the logical conclusion would be that this is Dinah Laurel Lance finally donning her superhero identity from the comics the commercials have made it clear that she is on a crusade against the Hood, and thus logically against vigilantes. While it could be her acting as no-killing vigilante, such as what Ollie has become, it could also be another character, such as Sarah. We still don't know if she's survived and why else add a sister who never existed in the comics if she didn't have an important role?

• Confirmed-although no one's called her Black Canary just yet.
  • Then Jossed in the first episode of season 3 when she is killed by an unknown assassin, with her never having taken the name 'Black Canary'. With the implication in the next episode that Laurel will have a story arc that involves taking a level in badass, avenging Sara, and taking on the name Black Canary in honor of her sister.

The Canary knows Oliver is The Arrow

Sarah figured it out before she decided to become a vigilante herself. It also explains why she doesn't talk to him because he would recognize her voice.

• Confirmed as of "Crucible", its mentioned when they heard of the vigilante in the green hood, they knew it was Oliver even before returning to Starling.

Ra's Al Ghul was the man who inspired the plan that Merlyn has

Now I'm not sure if copyright laws prevent this, but if I recall Merlyn was trained by the League of Shadows in the comics, and his plan of killing a city sounds very similar to the plan Ra's had in Batman Begins (and what Bane planned in The Dark Knight Rises).

• Copyright laws are irrelevant - Warners produced both The Dark Knight Trilogy & Arrow, and own DC Comics. If Batman characters don't turn up, it's because DC don't want to confuse people by having two live-action portrayals of Batman running around, as seen with Smallville.
• TV rights would come up though. As do the plans for those associated properties. This has complicated a lot of seemingly shared universes.
• Confirmed! The Canary was paid a visit by a Dark Archer dressed exactly like Merlyn, who was an emissary of Ra's.

Season Two will be after a year or so time gap.

This is going with a few other WMGs. If Roy does indeed join team Arrow, he will need training time, which will be skipped so we can get right into him as Speedy, Red Arrow or whatever name Ollie gives him. This can also give Tommy time to become the new Dark Archer if such a storyline is in our future.

• And the city will be recovered from The Undertaking.
  • Well, it doesn't seem the city has recovered from anything.
  • Confirmed. Both the present day and flashback story lines have moved forward several months-Shado mentions its been six months since they stopped Fyer's, and stuff in that new year on the island is still five years before the present plot.

Death Predictions for the season 1 finale:

Present:

• Malcolm: He sacrifices himself, to save Tommy. Semi-confirmed, he appears to die (although Ollie says he didn't kill him), but not to save Tommy.
• Tommy: This is an alternative to Malcolm dying. One of them will likely die, but probably not both. Confirmed

Flashbacks:

• Edward Fyers confirmed
• The man whom Oliver refused to save Confirmed; Ollie stabbed him, Shado finished him. And he was evil.

Assuming Slade eventually becomes THE Deathstroke, he will have some form of his comics counterpart's powers

The healing factor at the very least, could be explained by some manipulation of Yao Fei's super herbs. And maybe we don't know their full abilities, or maybe there are herbs with other miraculous properties (herbs that unrealistically stimulate the brain, for example).

• Confirmed. Slade gets injected with Mirakuru, and now has minor superhuman abilities, in addition to his already badass ways.

The appearance of Amanda Waller and Deadshot in the same episode may hint at the Suicide Squad appearing in the future.

• Doesn't seem to be any other reason for Amanda's appearance.
• Deadshot himself has certainly mellowed out, wanting to make small talk and surprised that Diggle still holds a grudge against him for killing his brother. He also helps Diggle out and never once stabs Diggle in the back, and in the end, actually reveals to Diggle that his brother was a contract and tells him who ordered it before leaving. If he isn't at least a little less evil, he's certainly very professional.
  • Confirmed. Amanda Waller approaches Bronze Tiger, telling him she's putting together a Squad.

Predictions for the Second Season

• One of the Merlyns manage to survive.
  • Confirmed.
• Laurel quits the law firm. The first step in becoming Black Canary.
  • Confirmed, even though she returns to law, this time as a DA.
• The Queens lose their fortune and their company, due to Moira's involvement with the Undertaking.
  • Not just because of Moira, but yes the Queens lose their company and most of their money.

Death predictions, Season 2 edition

• Sebastian Blood - they aren't likely to let another season Big Bad survive the finale.
  • As mentioned above, likely by Slade's hands.
  • Confirmed. He is shanked by Isabel.
• Moira Queen - possibly a Heroic Sacrifice to save Thea from Malcolm.
  • Result in Oliver's guilt after saying they're no longer family due to her lies.
  • 'Confirmed, though not for the above reasons. She ends up sacrificing herself to spare Oliver from having to choose between her and Thea when Slade kidnaps them in the closing 10 minutes of "Seeing Red".

The boxing glove arrow will be either lampshaded or an Improvised Weapon

• Confirmed. "Guilty" sees Oliver use a boxing glove arrow as an Improvised Weapon.

Thea and Roy Harper will both become sidekicks.

Thea will become Speedy and Roy will become either Red Arrow or Arsenal.

• Confirmed for Roy. He and Oliver are keeping Thea out of it for now.
• Thea finally dons the Mia Dearden costume near the end of Season 3, though she's not really christened as Speedy (as a superhero/vigilante) yet.
• Confirmed as of the Season 3 finale, though Roy is no longer a part of the team when she joins.

Felicity's father will turn out to be a supervillain.

A mad scientist type, probably. We've been told that she inherited her intellect from him. We also know that he walked out on Felicity and her mother, suggesting that he is prone to selfish, narcissistic behavior.

• Pretty much confirmed as of "Unchained": Felicity's father is revealed to be the Calculator.