"They threw a cow pie at you, so you decide to kill them all?! They're starving, you fool! All because of a war you started!"
Note that while this page is about What an Idiot! moments in Game of Thrones, many of these examples can also apply to A Song of Ice and Fire.— Tyrion Lannister, to Joffrey
Warning: All spoilers are unmarked.
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General
- Jaime in the backstory. It turns out he had a very good reason to kill Aerys there and then, which he doesn't share with anyone until much later. Namely, that the king had hidden caches of wildfire all across King's Landing and his last words ("Burn them all") weren't just rambling about the Starks he was torturing, but him giving the order to blow up the whole city.
You'd Expect: For Jaime to immediately alert anyone willing to listen. Even if he's harsh and self-righteous, an honorable man like Ned Stark would not have dismissed this, and it's not like Jaime didn't have any proof - the wildfire was still there.
Instead: Jaime refuses to even try telling anyone, starting with "the honorable Ned Stark", earning a reputation as a kingslayer that makes him a bitter man without honor and ensures that he never gets along with Ned Stark and Robert Baratheon, eventually sparking a conflict.
Even worse: The caches are never removed and eventually Cersei discovers one, using it to blow up the Great Sept and murder all her political rivals, which is exactly what Jaime wanted to prevent the Mad King from doing. - In general, Tywin Lannister's goal above all else is to see his family prosper, which he intends for it to do long after he's dead. To this end, he tries to marry off his daughter Cersei and have the golden boy Jaime be his heir.
You'd Expect: Tywin would understand that the reason his house prospers now is because of his political acumen, and of his three children, the only one that shares that skill is Tyrion, The Unfavorite. Note that his enemies do understand that Tywin is the linchpin of the Lannisters, and have exploited it at times. Since making Tyrion heir is out of the question, at least make sure he's putting his mind to good use. By Tywin's own admission, Cersei isn't a competent replacement and Jaime's talents lie in fighting, not statesmanship.
Instead: Tywin tries to pull Uriah Gambits on Tyrion several times, flatly insults his desire to be heir, and only recognizes his talents insofar as they're immediately useful. He does delegate his job as Hand to King Joffrey to Tyrion for the duration of Season 2 as a result of screw-ups by his other immediate relatives, only to snatch the role away from him again at the end of the season for seemingly no reason other than thinking that Tyrion drinks and sleeps around a little too much. As a result, when Tyrion kills Tywin and flees the continent, Cersei makes a string of bad decisions that pretty much destroys the influence of House Lannister.
You'd Also Expect: That Tywin, who is a good judge of character, would keep an eye on the way his daughter raises the future heir to the throne.
Instead: He seems to have ignored this aspect completely, which allows Cersei to raise Joffrey as a petulant psychopath.
As a result: He initially suspects treason when Joffrey commits blunder after blunder. To his credit, he does realize the truth eventually and tries to train Tommen himself, but...well, see below.
You'd Also Expect: That Tywin would understand that in order for his children to carry out and expand his legacy, they must feel like they own it and are part of it.
Instead: He reminds them at every turn that they are nothing but pawns for him to fulfill his own ambition and should expect no rewards. He also rubs their failures in their faces and never fails to remind Tyrion how much he hates him, and how not killing him in his crib was a great sacrifice for Tywin.
As a result: All three of Tywin's children are completely alienated from his vision for House Lannister. Jaime outright refuses to be heir, Cersei vows to actively ruin Tywin's legacy if he keeps trying to control her children, and his only worthy successor when it comes to politics, Tyrion, kills him in revenge for his own staged Kangaroo Court. House Lannister takes as little as a few years after Tywin's death to collapse from the continent's greatest house to nothing.
Season One
- A bad situation and moral dilemma has emerged: Sansa and Joffrey witnessed Arya learning to fence with a butcher's boy named Mycah, with Arya's direwolf Nymeria watching them. Joffrey decided to challenge Mycah on a whim, despite Mycah lacking the social status to fence with royalty. Thanks to Arya trying to defend Mycah and Nymeria biting Joffrey to protect Arya, a political squabble ensues. It leaves Mycah killed by the Hound on Joffrey's orders, Nymeria exiled to the wilderness where she becomes feral again and leads a great direwolf pack, and Lady executed by Ned so as to give her a Mercy Kill on the queen's orders. Arya swears vengeance on Joffrey, Cersei, and the Hound, and calls out Sansa for lying because Sansa decided to not tell the truth about what really happened owing to her engagement to Joffrey, remaining silent and impartial. Sansa blames Arya for Lady's death and calls her a "fool".
You'd Expect: Ned to talk to Sansa privately to apologize for his part in Lady's death, and for both of them to realize that Cersei and Joffrey are brimming with red flags. Arya sums it up when talking with Ned: Joffrey got her friend killed over wounded pride, and he used the Hound to do his dirty work. If he actually cared about Sansa, then he wouldn't have demanded Nymeria or Lady as a pelt.
Instead: He gives Sansa a doll as an Apology Gift. A doll, which obviously should assuage her feelings about Cersei ordering that a Stark direwolf had to die for the crime of biting Joffrey, and Lady was the only one available.
The Result: Sansa predictably rejects the gift, telling her father that she's too old for dolls. Arya only agrees to a truce with Sansa when they spend mealtime together after talking with her father, but maintains that she's right about Joffrey's character, that he is a monster and Sansa shouldn't be engaged to him. When Ned comes to the same conclusion and decides for Sansa's sake that he must break the betrothal, Sansa still doesn't understand and protests that she loves Joffrey.
To Make Matters Worse When the rest of the seasons go pear-shaped, Sansa is forced to admit that Arya was right about Joffrey, warning his second betrothed Margaery and Lady Olenna that "he is a monster". Olenna then manages more long-lasting results by poisoning Joffrey and arranging with Littlefinger to spirit Sansa out of King's Landing since the crime would be pinned on her and Tyrion. The vengeance for her family keeps Arya going, and she determines to murder Cersei and make her pay for her Long List of crimes against the Starks. - Ned and Catelyn Stark are trying to figure out who put a hit out on their son. Their investigations lead them to Tyrion Lannister, who happens to be A: the son of Tywin Lannister, who's probably the most wealthy, powerful and influential lord in Westeros, and B: the little brother of Jaime Lannister, one of the most skilled swordsmen on the continent, and the guy who made the choice to kill the last King of Westeros.
You'd Expect: Ned to go directly to Robert with the details as soon as he could and Catelyn to not do something so foolish as kidnap the son of the richest and most ruthless man in Westeros with no plan for what to do next, even if she did think he had tried to kill her child.
Instead: Catelyn takes action as soon as the Starks have all the information they think they need and arrests Tyrion as soon as she gets the chance. Jaime, not taking kindly to this, arrives with a group of Lannister soldiers and asks him if he knows of Tyrion's fate.
So You'd Then Expect: Ned to stall Jaime by pretending he doesn't know or isn't certain if the report is true, or - if he's not a fan of lying - try to defuse the situation diplomatically by explaining their suspicions of Tyrion. Jaime is a brilliant swordsman, and he and his soldiers pose a direct threat to Ned and his retinue. Besides, this will enrage Tywin Lannister, who Ned well knows is a formidable enemy.
But Instead: Ned blows it by saying that Tyrion was arrested on his orders without going into detail about why, removing any possibility of de-escalation. He does warn Jaime that his death would result in Tyrion being killed in retaliation, but as the next moment indicates, this doesn't do anything to protect his retinue.
The Result: Jaime's soldiers attack Ned and kill several members of his retinue. Jaime himself challenges Ned to a duel, during which Ned is speared in the back of his thigh by a Lannister soldier. Ned survives but is seriously injured and needs a cane to walk, hampering his ability to fight back in the future. Tywin, regarding Tyrion's arrest as an affront to the Lannisters, has The Mountain lead a Rape, Pillage, and Burn campaign against the Riverlands (Catelyn's homeland) in retaliation. Jaime later joins his father's war in the Riverlands. - Viserys Targaryen has made a deal with Dothraki leader Khal Drogo: Viserys will give Drogo a wife in the form of his sister Daenerys, and in exchange, Drogo will provide Viserys with an army of Dothraki which he can use to conquer Westeros. Several weeks after the wedding, Drogo has yet to fulfill his part of the deal, since Viserys did not specify a date for when he wanted the army, and has no obvious means with which to transport it to Westeros in any event.
You'd Expect: Viserys to arrange a meeting with Drogo and ask him to provide the army as per their deal, while at least trying to be polite about it. It also wouldn't hurt to not try and provoke the barbarian warlord in question beforehand.
Instead: Viserys gets drunk, storms into Drogo's tent, makes impatient demands of the Khal, and threatens to murder Drogo and Daenerys's unborn child, assuming that he'll be safe from retaliation due to the Dothraki being forbidden from spilling blood in their present location.
The Result: Drogo decides he'll make a golden crown for Viserys right then and there, and pointedly neglects to let the gold cool off before putting it on the man's head. Viserys dies a bloodless, agonizing death before he can even set sail towards Westeros. - While Robert is off hunting, Ned susses out that Cersei and Jaime are secretly in an incestuous affair, with Joffrey and Robert's other two children all being theirs. He comes to the conclusion that his mentor Jon Arryn was killed over this secret (false) and that people tried to kill one of his sons over it as well (true, at least in the first instance).
You'd Expect: Since people have killed over this secret as far as he's aware, he'd keep a lid on it until Robert gets back, then tell him in private and let him handle it.
Instead: In an effort to "spare the children", Ned reveals his awareness of the affair to Cersei and advises her to vamoose before Robert returns, expecting her to be shamed into leaving.
The Result: The only thing that stops Cersei from trying to have Ned bumped off is Robert returning from his hunt with a fatal wound (implied to be the result of Lancel deliberately getting him drunk at Cersei's behest), leaving him in no position to do anything about the secret Ned just revealed his awareness of. This allows Cersei to effectively take over as regent for Joffrey, with a series of Lawful Stupid decisions on Ned's part ultimately leading to his execution by beheading at the hands of one of the "children" he tried to spare. - Joffrey, being the sociopathic Royal Brat that he is, gets more than one. His mother's plan was for Ned Stark to be framed on false charges so that she could force him to join the Night's Watch and be sent off to the wall. That way, he'd be far from King's Landing and his credibility would be damaged enough that his secret wouldn't be believed even if he let it out.
You'd think: He'd just follow up with the plan. Ned Stark's family is powerful, and keeping him alive would prevent them from revolting given their Honor Before Reason beliefs.
Instead: Joffrey goes, "Ser Illyn! Bring me his head!" right in full view of Sansa Stark and a whole crowd of onlookers, and does nothing to change his orders even when his own mother tries to tell him off.
As a result: Robb Stark rebels and proves to be a genuine threat to Joffrey's reign. - Ned Stark has discovered a Lannister plot against his family and tells his wife Catelyn to hurry home and instruct Robb to gather an army because he knows there will be a military confrontation, and wants to be ready before the war starts.
You'd expect: Catelyn to do so.
Instead: Catelyn arrests Tyrion Lannister and takes him to her sister instead of returning home.
As a result: The war starts before the Northern army is ready and while Ned himself is still in the capital, surrounded by enemies.
Season Two
- Later, Joffrey discovers that Cersei's secret is for real, and that he's the bastard son of Cersei and his "uncle" Jaime, making all of Robert's bastards by various prostitutes across King's Landing potential heirs to the Iron Throne.
You'd think: Given that rumors of Joffrey's true parentage are already out, he would find a quiet way to remove all of Robert's bastard children. He could force them into the Night's Watch, or have them sold into slavery in Essos, hire red priestesses like Melisandre to use them as blood banks, or have them assassinated in secret using Varys's "little birds", etc. These ways are utterly despicable but they would remove potential threats to his reign without raising any questions. King's Landing is rife with all sorts of crime and having a group of lowborn people quietly disappear would attract no notice from the populace.
Instead: Joffrey (Cersei in the books) orders a vicious purge of Robert's bastards, with the Gold Cloaks taking part in the open murder of innocent people including children in broad daylight.
As a result: The sheer brazenness and brutality of the purge, even by Westerosi standards, draws attention to the acts and the people being killed, and the crimes give everyone in Westeros good proof that the rumors about Joffrey's parentage are true. Tyrion is able to divert the worst of the blame away from Joffrey by scapegoating Janos Slynt and exiling him to the Wall, but replaces him with Bronn, who is far less unquestioningly loyal to Cersei and Joffrey than his predecessor. - Cersei meanwhile is regretful that Joffrey is a monster, and she fears it's because he's a child of incest. Tyrion comforts her by reminding her that Tommen and Myrcella have beaten the odds and are kind, sane children.
You'd Expect: Cersei to realize that Tyrion for all his faults is loyal to the Lannisters. This would have been a prime opportunity for Tyrion to Kick Them While They Are Down. But he comforts her instead, despite their bad blood. He doesn't want to hurt her, despite his faults, and when he's telling off Joffrey, he's usually right. The hostage situation with Myrcella was to improve the situation with the Martells, who are seeking justice for Elia Martell and her children. Also, Tyrion won't judge her for Drowning My Sorrows since he does the same.
Instead: She takes whom she believes is his whore hostage. And instantly blames Tyrion for Joffrey's death, taking his verbal threats to her son out of context.
The Result: Things become downright chaotic in Season Four after Tyrion kills Tywin and leaves the kingdom in Cersei's hands. - Robb Stark needs allies in his war for Northern independence, so he can convince the Lannisters that they have bitten off far more than they can chew, especially with Renly starting to turn into a serious threat to the south of the Crownlands.
You'd Expect: Robb really just wants retribution for his father, and to make the North independent, instead of actually taking the throne. Cersei and Joffrey might not be amenable to Robb's terms, but Renly might. If both men work together and come to an understanding, they can put immense pressure on the Lannisters and force them into a war on two fronts, a war not even money can buy enough soldiers to win.
Or: If Robb wants to get the help of the Greyjoys, he would send someone besides Theon to negotiate with Balon, and keep Theon close by his side. Even if Robb's faith in Theon isn't misplaced, Balon could just as easily decide to confine Theon to Pyke if he doubts his son's loyalty, where he'd be out of reach of the Starks.
Instead: Robb takes Theon's advice and sends him to go and try to broker an alliance with the Greyjoys, both of them completely forgetting why Theon was Ned's ward in the first place. Theon is a bargaining chip to keep the Greyjoys from attacking anyone, and once Theon is back in Balon's clutches, the first thing they do? Attack the defenseless North. Also, Robb sees Renly as a secondary option, and sends his mother to the Stormlands, a mission that could have resulted in Catelyn being captured, or worse.
Even Worse: Because of this horrible decision, this kicks off Theon's "character arc" that results in a massive Humiliation Conga for several seasons before things get remotely better. It also leads to the sacking and burning of Winterfell, the opportunity for House Bolton to betray the Starks when morale gets low and subsequently the Red Wedding, and for the Greyjoys to enter the geopolitical nightmare of the War of the Five Kings as a wild card, and eventually, the only reason Cersei even has any power left while she is on the Iron Throne. Without this decision, the Greyjoys might have just sat out the War of the Five Kings, sulking on their barren islands, and the Starks might have actually won. Also, Catelyn Stark lays out that Balon is not trustworthy, and points out how horrible an idea sending Theon is. And where did that get her? - Following Balon's decision to make war with the North, Theon defects to his blood family and is convinced by his first mate Dagmer to take Winterfell with the meagre force he's been given, in order to prove himself as an Ironborn to his father. Theon does succeed in capturing the castle, taking Robb Stark's younger brothers Bran and Rickon prisoner in the process, but Winterfell is hundreds of miles inland, making it near-impossible for a naval power like the Iron Islands to hold.
You'd Expect: With the castle under their control, Theon and his men would follow typical Ironborn procedure; sack the place and then head back to their ship as quickly as possible, preferably taking Bran and Rickon along with them. As Yara points out when she pays her little brother a visit later, the Ironborn cannot hold Winterfell indefinitely. Granted, Theon might not realize this since he spent the latter half of his life away from the Iron Islands, but you'd think veteran Iron Islanders like Dagmer and Black Lorren would see the flaws in trying to keep hold of such a place.
Instead: Theon insists on trying to hold Winterfell with twenty men, and refuses to leave even after Bran and Rickon escape his clutches, his attempt to cover up their escape by faking their executions earns him the hatred of most of the North, and Yara makes clear she won't commit troops towards garrisoning the castle.
Result: Theon and his men end up besieged by Ramsay Snow, who surrounds the castle and drives Theon up the wall with his hornblowing. Theon's men betray him to Ramsay as he attempts to rally them with a rousing speech, having finally realized they're in a no-win situation, but it does them no good; Ramsay has them all flayed alive while subjecting Theon to horrific Cold-Blooded Torture. - Lord Commander Mormont is a crowning moment of Honor Before Reason, he firmly believes in Sacred Hospitality, but have a look at the Monster page and read up on Craster to see just what Mormont has to put up with.
You'd Expect: He forego his honor for once - he'd made allowances for Jon Snow after all - and kill or at least imprison Craster and put, say, Sam in his place as waystation beyond the Wall.
Instead: He ignores it.
Result: As well as directly recruiting for the White Walkers, Mormont's lack of action leads to the Craster's Keep mutiny, losses for the Watch, as well as the rise of the "Fookin legend of Gin Alley." - Besides Northern independence and avenging his father, Robb is also fighting to rescue his sisters Arya and Sansa from the clutches of the Lannisters. After learning about Theon Greyjoy's betrayal and capture of Winterfell, which has put Robb's brothers Bran and Rickon in danger, their mother Catelyn Stark is understandably worried for her daughters. She decides to try and exchange the captured Jaime Lannister for Arya and Sansa.
You'd Expect: That if Catelyn was insistent on a hostage exchange, she would get Robb to agree to it beforehand, and make sure that several guards were on hand to both safely escort Jaime to the location of the exchange, and ensure that the Starks will have Betrayal Insurance.
Instead: Catelyn goes behind her son's back and sends Jaime off to King's Landing with only Brienne of Tarth to watch over him, seemingly in the belief that a single warrior can both keep Jaime safe and secure, and trade him for Arya and Sansa without being double-crossed by the Lannisters.
Result: Jaime and Brienne's trip to King's Landing is fraught with peril, with Jaime nearly escaping being one of the better things that happens during it. And when they do reach the end of their journey, Brienne finds herself in no position to leave with Sansa now that she's been married to Tyrion Lannister, not that she had any leverage to begin with. Robb meanwhile is furious with his mother for going behind his back in such a foolish way, which kicks off a series of Disaster Dominoes that ends with the Red Wedding, and the Northern cause being all but destroyed for two seasons. - Near the end of the season, Robb is in a relationship with Talisa Maegyr. Unfortunately, he also agreed to marry one of Walder Frey's daughters or granddaughters early on in his campaign in exchange for the right to cross the Trident at the Twins, and the support of House Frey. Walder Frey is also not a man who takes betrayal well, and Robb needs all the men he can get for his war.
You'd Expect: Robb would accept that it's not in his best interests to break his betrothal while he's at war and needs Walder Frey's men. If he wants to marry Talisa after the fighting's over, that might not be too bad; he may never need to return to the Twins or call upon Walder Frey again. Plus, he could quite reasonably argue that Walder extorted the marriage agreement from him if he wants to justify refusing to honor it.
Instead: Robb and Talisa get married, Robb ignoring Catelyn when she urges him not to do something so reckless for the sake of love - which is sound advice here in spite of her hypocrisy - simply because she herself has acted recklessly. He also doesn't consider trying to make amends with House Frey until he has no other option (see below); it might not have helped, but it could hardly have made things worse.
Result: The Freys ditch Robb, and because of this and a number of other events and factors - Stannis's defeat at the Battle of the Blackwater, the Tyrells forming an alliance with Joffrey and the Lannisters, and Robb losing the support of the Karstarks - Robb finds himself at a severe disadvantage, despite winning all of his battles and establishing himself as a strong contender early on in the war. Walder Frey's newfound enmity towards House Stark also leads him to betray them at the Red Wedding, with Catelyn, Robb, Talisa, and their unborn child all getting murdered.
Season Three
- It is revealed that Robb and Brynden Tully's grand strategy for the War of the Five Kings was to lure the Lannister forces into the Westerlands, in order to both catch them out of position and open King's Landing up to attack from either Stannis or Renly Baratheon.
You'd Expect: That Brynden and Robb - an Old Soldier from the War of the Ninepenny Kings and a highly skilled leader who'ss spent most of the war being more than a match for Tywin Lannister, respectively - would both know the importance of disseminating orders and plans among their main allies and commanders.
Instead: For whatever reason, they don't inform Edmure Tully of their strategy.
Result: Edmure decides to attack Gregor Clegane and his army at Stone Mill, instead of luring them west. While Edmure wins the battle, his victory keeps the Lannisters trapped inside the Riverlands, allowing them and the Tyrells to rush to the aid of King's Landing when Stannis attacks it, and arrive just in time to prevent him from deposing Joffrey. Robb and Brynden later have the nerve to be furious with Edmure for screwing things up due to his lack of knowledge. - Lord Rickard Karstark, one of Robb's bannermen marching to Casterly Rock, kills two captured Lannister boys at Riverrun due to the Kingslayer's escape and is subsequently arrested.
You'd Expect: Robb to keep Rickard prisoner, and negotiate with the Karstarks, especially when a chunk of the army consists of the Karstarks. Alternatively, he could send Rickard back to Karhold with instructions to rest, explaining that he's being merciful to a loyal subordinate and a distant kinsman (the Karstarks are a branch of the Stark family), and have another Karstark take over for the time being. He already gracefully defused the situation when Greatjon Umber threatened him with his sword, there's no reason why he shouldn't show the same restraint and understanding with the Karstarks.
Instead: Robb executes Rickard as his punishment for killing the boys.
The Result: The Karstarks march back north, forcing Robb to ask for the Freys' help, clearly the last men to ask for help. This, combined with Robb's breaking of his vow to the Freys ie. marrying one of the Frey girls, ends with Robb's death, his wife's death, his mother's death, his ENTIRE army's perishing, his wolf's death, his uncle as a captive, at the uncle's wedding more infamously remembered as the Red Wedding. The North's call for independence ends with them, enabling House Lannister to win the War of the Five Kings. - Robb has broken a marriage vow he made with Walder Frey and married Talisa instead. While the stupidity of that decision has been addressed above, he later needs to make amends with Walder and beg for troop support when the Karstarks leave. To that end, Edmure, Lord of the Riverlands, agrees to marry one of Walder's daughters instead of Robb.
You'd Expect: Robb would leave Talisa behind when attending the wedding. Bringing his new wife and showing her off to the person he broke a marriage vow with would be a slap in the face to anyone, much less someone as famously petty and vindictive as Walder Frey. Even if Robb is too young and naïve to understand this, his more experienced advisers like Catelyn should drive home what a bad idea this is.
Instead: Robb brings his pregnant wife to the Red Wedding.
The Result: Talisa gets a fatal case of sword-in-belly. While the slaughter was planned ahead of time and would have happened either way, Talisa and their unborn child might have been spared had Robb shown a little bit of common sense.
Season Four
- At the Purple Wedding, Joffrey starts choking. It takes a few moments for everyone to realize that he's been poisoned, and he's dying. While doing so, he points at Tyrion, who comes to examine the wineglass.
You'd Expect: That someone would use their head. As Tyrion lampshades, if he had poisoned Joffrey, he wouldn't have been stupid enough to stand in front of him and examine his wineglass.note
Instead: No one uses common sense to defend Tyrion, not even his brother.
The Result: Cersei gets to carry on a Kangaroo Court trial which is damnably convincing due to a Surprise Witness taking Tyrion's remarks out of context. Subsequently, Tyrion decides to no longer help his family after he's sentenced to death, murders Tywin, and leaves Westeros upon getting the opportunity. This means that thanks to Cersei, Dany has the smartest Lannister as a right-hand man, and a power struggle ensues because no one can keep the realm together. By the time Jaime finds out from Olenna after he defeats her army and gives her poison as a Mercy Kill, he realizes how things messed up so badly. - During Oberyn Martell's duel with Gregor Clegane he repeatedly accuses him of murdering his sister Elia Martell's children before raping and murdering her.
You'd Expect: Gregor to focus on their duel.
Instead: While he does win the duel and kill Oberyn, he also shouts very loudly that he did exactly what Oberyn's accused him of. While in front of a crowd of VIPs, including more than a few of the Martell family's servants and sworn lords. And the Martells are a powerful family that the Lannisters desperately need at least neutral in Westeros affairs while Gregor is just a useful killer.
The Result: Really, even if Oberyn hadn't poisoned Gregor with one of his weapons and gotten in several life-threatening wounds, Gregor would still definitely be facing death one way or another. Also, thanks to his big mouth, Ellaria Sand has sufficient reason to murder Myrcella in revenge later on, in front of Jaime no less when he was coming to "rescue" her from the Martells. - Oberyn himself doesn't fare much better in terms of common sense. During the duel, he manages to gain the upper hand and give Gregor several life-threatening wounds, but is yet to still receive a confession from Gregor about his crimes, so he angrily demands one.
You'd Expect: That Oberyn would at least keep his distance from the Mountain while demanding the confession, or at least use his spear to try and disable his arms to prevent any surprise attacks. Or better yet, just drop the demand all-together. Even if he fails to get a confession, he's still avenged his sister and her children.
Instead: Oberyn gets too cocky and paces around the Mountain's barely lucid body.
Result: This allows Gregor to catch Oberyn off-guard, pull him to the ground, punch out his teeth and crush his skull, all the while sadistically gloating his confession, leading Tyrion to face execution.
For Added Stupidity: Before the duel, Tyrion warned Oberyn he could've at least worn a helmet, which certainly would've mitigated the chances of the latter's eventual demise. - Tywin Lannister is on the privy when he's confronted by a would-be assassin with both a crossbow and ample reason to want him dead: his son Tyrion. Tyrion decides not to shoot Tywin immediately.
You'd Expect: Tywin to try and avoid provoking Tyrion until either help arrives, or he gets an opportunity to talk the guy out of killing him.
Instead: Tywin refers to the freshly dead Shae - who Tyrion himself admitted to killing, with the act having clearly traumatized him - as a whore multiple times, despite being warned not to do so. As if his presence can still intimidate the son who he's mistreated for years and left with nothing more to lose.
Result: *THUNK!* "...You shot me."
Season Five
- After the duel between the Mountain and Oberyn, in which Oberyn had his head crushed by the Mountain, though not before severely poisoning him beforehand, Oberyn's lover Ellaria Sand demands that the Martells execute their hostage Myrcella Lannister in revenge. She is supported by the Sand Snakes, three martially-inclined bastard daughters of Oberyn, but Prince Doran refuses her demand, not wanting to stoop to the level of the Lannisters and murder children.
You'd Expect: That Doran would keep a close eye on Myrcella, Ellaria and the Sand Snakes, in order to prevent any hostile schemes from being carried out. At the same time, he could perhaps demand the body and/or head of Gregor Clegane, in the hope that Ellaria can be satisfied with seeing her lover's killer. Even if Oberyn died in a legally sanctioned duel, Doran would arguably be well within his rights to demand such a thing, considering Gregor openly admitted to raping and murdering his sister Elia, as well as murdering his niece and nephew. It also doesn't hurt that Gregor is allegedly dying from Oberyn's poison around this time, meaning the Lannisters arguably have little reason to refuse here.
Instead: Despite Doran stressing a need to protect Myrcella, the security detail around her is weak enough to not only enable Bronn and Jaime Lannister to nearly kidnap her, but allow the Sand Snakes to try and do the same under Ellaria's orders. Both sides are even able to fight with each other for about a minute before Doran's guards intervene.
Then: Doran opts for Forgiveness and tries to give Ellaria and the Sand Snakes a second chance, despite the fact that they attempted to kill a little girl under their protection. Ellaria and the Sand Snakes are subsequently able to murder Myrcella, Doran and Trystane, taking control of Dorne in the process. As of season seven, Ellaria's sole Lannister casualty is Myrcella, whose death only makes Cersei more dangerous.
The Result: The Martells suffer a similar fate to the Starks, after Cersei spends years plotting revenge for Myrcella, whom she considers the only good thing in her world, a truly innocent child that never betrayed her. Qyburn helps her find the poison that was used on Myrcella, as well as the antidote. She finally gets her chance when Euron Greyjoy hands over a captive Ellaria and her sole surviving daughter Tyene. Cersei locks them up, gags them, and poisons Tyene the same way that Ellaria poisoned Myrcella. She promises that Ellaria will watch her daughter die, unable to comfort Tyene in her last moments, and unable to perish in turn because Cersei will force Ellaria to look on the corpse for the rest of her days and keep her from starving. Yeah, not a good way for the last of the Martells to go. - Cersei has just found out that the Faith Militant has resurfaced as a vigilante group and forced the High Septon to march naked down the street for visiting a brothel. The High Septon asks her to destroy them, and Cersei knows that one of their members is her cousin Lancel, who can implicate her in her various crimes.
You'd Expect: Her to remember (or if she didn't already know find out) that incest in the royal family was exactly why the Faith Militant was formed, and agree to the High Septon's demand leaving him in her debt. She could kill two birds with one stone by silencing her cousin and use the High Septon to smear the Tyrells.
Instead: She throws the High Septon in prison and officially reinstates the Faith Militant as part of a plot to get rid of Margaery Tyrell.
As A Result: While Margaery does get arrested, the leader of the Faith Militant (The High Sparrow) eventually turns on Cersei and has her arrested and publicly humiliated for the crimes her cousin confessed to. - For financial reasons, the Tyrells and Lannisters have allied in a political match, with Margaery eventually becoming Tommen's bride. Olenna nevertheless wants to keep her grandchildren and son safe, and keeps sending hints to Cersei that she will go Mama Bear if the occasion calls for it. Also, the Lannisters need the Tyrells' funds after the costly War of the Five Kings.
You'd Expect: That either Cersei would decide to be pragmatic, and also keep her son happy since Tommen is Happily Married to Margaery at the tender age of fourteen, or Olenna would see that Cersei isn't the sharpest tool in the shed, given that she was stupid enough to charge Tyrion for Joffrey's murder when Olenna did the deed, and has delusions of being powerful.
Instead: Neither party thinks this far ahead.
The Result: Cersei sets the High Sparrow on Margaery and Loras, earns the Sparrow's wrath when her cousin confesses to sleeping with her, and later on kills the Sparrows and the Tyrells, except Olenna, at her "trial". Tommen also kills himself when he sees the fire and realizes his wife is dead. Olenna becomes a Death Seeker and allies with Dany to declare war once and for all on Queen Cersei, without thoughts of survival. This also means that the Lannisters have no food for their citizens when winter comes since the House Tyrell controls all of it. - Soon after its reinstatement, the Faith Militant arrest Margaery's brother Loras for his homosexuality. Both siblings deny the charge when questioned by the High Sparrow, who responds by bringing in Loras's current lover Olyvar to give testimony against them. Falsely claiming to have been Loras's squire, Olyvar admits to the affair and Margaery's knowledge of it - thereby incriminating her as well for false testimony - and he also says that Loras has a birthmark shaped like Dorne to support his claims.
You'd Expect: Either Loras, Margaery or Olenna would point out that if Olyvar truly was Loras's squire, his duties would have involved helping him dress and undress, meaning that he could have seen said birthmark without engaging in any kind of intimacy with the man. Granted, Loras called Olyvar a liar early on during the questioning, but that could have been argued to have referred to anything besides Olyvar being his squire.
Instead: Loras physically charges Olyvar - naturally making himself look more guilty - while neither Margaery nor Olenna bring up the above point.
The Result: Both Loras and Margaery end up imprisoned by the Faith Militant, and are subsequently stuck at the Great Sept of Baelor when Cersei decides to blow it up at the end of the next season. - Littlefinger has set his sights on Sansa now that Cat is dead, and spirits her away to the Vale. After her aunt nearly kills her if not for Petyr's interference, Sansa decides to put her trust in Littlefinger. As she tells him, he's the only person who has tried to keep her alive and safe, apart from Tyrion who has been locked up. Joffrey has abused her, Cersei has bullied her, Lysa has attempted to murder her, and the Tyrells and Baratheons have failed to offer any help.
You'd Expect: For Littlefinger to do what he did in the books: keep Sansa at his side in the Vale and out of the game for as long as he can, while educating her in its fine arts. That way he has a successor, and the perfect Replacement Goldfish for Cat.
Instead: Littlefinger sells Sansa in marriage to Ramsay Snow, an Ax-Crazy Sadist with no use for a wife beyond using her as yet another torture victim. Ramsay proceeds to lock Sansa up, rape her, and destroy any hope she has of escaping.
The Result: While Sansa escapes thanks to a regretful Theon "Reek" Greyjoy, she refuses to trust Littlefinger, saying that he was either an idiot for not knowing about Ramsay being a monster, or her enemy for knowing and hatching the scheme anyway. While she reluctantly accepts his army in the subsequent battle against Ramsay, his chances of being with Sansa are shot with Jon as her new ally, and her newfound capacity for cruelty. And when Sansa eventually turns on him in Season 7, she cites him selling her to Ramsay as one of her reasons. - Speaking of Ramsay, he's been a Domestic Abuser husband to Sansa, who entered the wedding willingly. Roose and Walda tolerate this, but know it's bad for business.
You'd Expect: Ramsay would be pragmatic enough to keep Sansa alive for the duration of their marriage. As the heiress to the North, she's more valuable as a living figure. People remember Ned as a Benevolent Boss and are itching to rebel.
Instead: Ramsay's girlfriend reveals to Theon that as soon as Sansa bears a son, her life is forfeit. Theon has no reason to believe this is another of the Bolton mind-games.
The Result: It ends up being this and not anything else that snaps Theon's brainwashing. He kills said girlfriend, busts Sansa out, and provides her with the means to seek sanctuary at the Watch. Roose has to spell out how idiotic this was. To add insult to injury, Jon finds out about the details and is determined to murder Ramsay with his bare hands at the next opportunity. He only doesn't because Sansa indicates she wants to deliver the final blow. - Roose Bolton knows full well his illegitimate son Ramsay is a sadistic sociopath. In season 4, Roose manages to secure a letter of legitimacy from King Tommen, making Ramsay a true Bolton and preparing the family for a legitimate takeover of the North. However, Ramsay continues to be Stupid Evil.
You'd Expect: Roose to find some tactful way to stop Ramsay's worst impulses without setting him off...if that's possible.
Instead: Roose repeatedly shames Ramsay for his torture and rapes, as if that will do anything but piss off his serial killer of a son. Roose also threatens to revoke Ramsay's inheritance, taunting him with his pregnant Frey wife.
The Result: As soon as Roose's new baby is born and confirmed male, Ramsay stabs his father to death and feeds his stepmother and baby brother to his dogs. Big surprise.
Season Six
- Ramsay has taken over House Bolton. He wants Sansa back both to own the North and because he's a Sore Loser. By some luck for him, the Umbers deliver Rickon Stark to him as a hostage. Ramsay knows that Sansa went to the Watch to get help from her bastard brother, Jon Snow.
You'd Expect: He would ask for an alliance with the Watch and hint about how he wants to solidify the North. The whole point of having a hostage is to negotiate.
Instead: He gives a Sadistic Choice: return Sansa in exchange for Rickon's life and promising to return Sansa to that life, or he'll wipe out everyone and rape Sansa anyway.
Predictably: When Sansa convinces Jon that Ramsay already has Rickon, he gets the support of the Wildlings to go to war since Ramsay threatened them. Jon also is prepared to not negotiate. - At least Sansa got something out of her terrible relationship with Littlefinger: the loyalty of the Vale and its unscathed army. And Ramsay and Jon are about to begin waging war...
You'd Expect: Sansa to immediately tell Jon about the powerful military at her command.
Instead: Sansa decides to play politics by withholding this information to make Jon's campaign look unwinnable and ruin his image, so the Vale can show up in the nick of time and give her credit for the victory.
The Result: Thousands of Jon's men are slaughtered, and all for nothing—Lady Lyanna Mormont and the rest of the lords end up recognizing Jon as the avenger of the Red Wedding, even crowning him King in the North, rather than Sansa. - Arya decides to abandon her training to be a Faceless Man and return to Westeros. This results in another apprentice who has hated Arya since day one being sent after her. An old woman approaches Arya while she's wandering around the streets.
You'd Expect: That Arya, who's been training with this organisation and knows full well they have the ability to freaking shapeshift, would be wary of strangers and at least keep her guard up or tell her to stay back or something.
Instead: Arya allows the strange woman to approach her and smiles.
The Result: Surprise! She's actually the assassin sent to kill her. Arya then gets stabbed several times for her trouble, jumps into dirty river water to escape, and then staggers around the streets dripping blood everywhere. In a series where Anyone Can Die, it's absolutely amazing that she survives this. - It's the long-awaited Battle of the Bastards! The morning of the battle, Ramsay presents Rickon to his brother Jon, showing that he's safe and sound, as promised.
You'd Expect: For Ramsay to give Jon's army one final ultimatum: surrender right now or Rickon dies. Even though they have already discussed negotiations the day before, there's still a very slim chance Jon might comply with Ramsay's demands.
Instead: He plays a sadistic "running game" with Rickon involving live arrows, resulting in Rickon's death and Ramsay depriving himself of his last potential bargaining chip in case things turn sour.
The Result: ...Which is precisely what happens when Littlefinger and Sansa arrive with the Vale's support.
Admittedly: Ramsay was almost certainly not expecting Littlefinger's interference, due to the latter's habit of betraying one faction and aiding another whenever it benefits him. - Not one to learn from his mistakes, Ramsay finds himself fleeing back to his fortress after the Vale start overwhelming his forces. He readies his bow in anticipation for Jon and Wun-Wun to come crashing through the castle doors.
You'd Expect: For Ramsay to immediately put an arrow in Jon's head while his guard is down.
Instead: He wastes the shot on Wun-Wun (who is already riddled head to toe with arrows and at death's door regardless), thus costing him the element of surprise.
The Result: Jon grabs a nearby shield and blocks every arrow Ramsay fires at him from that point as he rushes towards him. Ramsay is beaten senseless, imprisoned, and ends up getting fed to his own dogs while he's still alive, ending his reign of terror once and for all.
Season Seven
- After murdering all of House Frey, Arya decides to return to King's Landing to assassinate Cersei. Along the way she encounters a group of peacekeeping Lannister soldiers, implied to be new blood and the bottom of the barrel.
You'd Expect: The soldiers would be suspicious of a girl wandering around on her own with a sword.
Instead: They aren't. They insist Arya sit with them and feed her while talking about their hopes for their families. Fortunately, Arya only kills people who have crossed her; she doesn't have it in her to go on a rampage against these men. - Olenna Tyrell may be one of the smartest people in the series, but she makes an inexplicably idiotic decision. Tyrion is planning a strategy that involves using Yara to ferry the Dornish Army and the capture of the Lannister ancestral stronghold of Casterly Rock. Olenna, however, knows that the Lannisters are secretly broke due to the gold mines running out, and that Casterly Rock no longer has strategic value as a result, something that Tyrion is unaware of.
You'd Expect: Olenna would point this out to Daenerys, either during the meeting or in private, especially since she already advised Daenerys not to trust her "clever man" Tyrion.
For Added Stupidity: Olenna knows that the Reach is still rich in gold and that makes her castle of Highgarden a high-priority target for the Lannisters, especially since Tywin, who was reluctant to attack the Tyrells, has been replaced by Cersei, who has no restraints against doing so. If Olenna had spoken to her about it, Daenerys might have settled on a strategy that ignored Casterly Rock and ambushed the Lannisters in the Reach.
Instead: Olenna stays silent about this game-changing piece of strategic information, and heads back to High Garden, where she is betrayed by Randall Tarly, whom Cersei convinces to switch sides.
The Result: The combined Tarly and Lannister forces overwhelm her few loyal bannermen and loot her gold, and Jaime kills Olenna with poison. The Unsullied end up taking a mostly abandoned Casterly Rock, but the fleet ferrying them is sunk by Euron Greyjoy, leaving the Unsullied far from any action for a while. Daenerys loses significantly on all counts. - During the Battle of the Goldroad, Daenerys and Drogon have been grounded. The Dothraki have devastated the Lannister and Tarly forces with the rest of them burning to ash. However, Jaime can see Daenerys in the open trying to remove the bolt that pierced Drogon's wing.
You'd Expect: Seeing the fucking DRAGON right next to her, that he should just cut his losses and run for it while he still can. Even Tyrion lampshades this, muttering for him to flee.
Instead: Like the traditional Knight in Armor, Jaime grabs a nearby spear and rushes straight towards Daenerys, attempting to run her down. AGAIN Tyrion lampshades this: "You idiot. You fucking idiot."
As A Result: Drogon notices Jaime and attempts to burn him alive. Bronn intercepts Jaime's charge at the last second, tackling them both into the river. Even then, Jaime nearly drowns due to his armor weighing him down. Again, with the series rife with Anyone Can Die, it's absolutely amazing they survive this. - Bran informs Jon Snow that the Night King and the Army of the Dead are closing on south. Daenerys is worried if she halts her plan to deal with them, Cersei will reset every progress Daenerys made in the season.
You'd Expect: Tyrion to suggest Daenerys to survey for proof for the Army of the Dead using her dragons, and after getting it, attack the Red Keep immediately to remove Cersei's threat. A unified Westeros under Daenerys has a greater chance against the Army of the Dead than a divided and rebelling Westeros.
Instead: Tyrion suggests bringing a Wight from beyond the Wall, and to show Cersei direct proof that the Army of the Dead exists.
You'd Also Expect: Everyone else to point out how stupid the idea is, as Cersei will not help her enemies no matter what.
Instead: Everyone reacts to the Wight Hunt idea as if it's the greatest strategic decision ever made. Eventually, they think to send someone north to get the said wight.
You'd Expect: Tyrion to suggest sending some fast movers in the Night's Watch to quickly capture any wight near the Wall, and bring it to Dragonstone or Winterfell.
Instead: Jon decides to lead the expedition. All of them forget if Jon somehow dies during the hunt, all the efforts of an alliance with the Targaryens and the North will be for vain.
As a Result: The team responsible for the Wight Hunt make some crucial errors (such as kidnapping a wight from the thick of the Army of the Dead, not making any contingency plans if they find themselves in trouble), which results in the deaths of Thoros and some Red Shirts, Daenerys losing Viserion at the hands of the Night King himself, and the near-death of Jon Snow (which was only averted by the timely arrival of Benjen).
Even Worse: All of this (to convince Cersei that the Army of the Dead exists) is in vain as Cersei instead plots to let the North and the Army of the Dead fight each other out, and wipe out the survivors. And also, the Night King uses a now-undead Viserion to breach the Wall, allowing the Army of the Dead to invade the Seven Kingdoms after 8 millennia. In other words, Tyrion and Jon accidentally unleash the Zombie Apocalypse on the world due to an idea that was doomed from the beginning. - Eventually Arya and Bran make it back to Winterfell. Littlefinger is concerned since he's been suggesting to Sansa that she could become more than Jon's appointed Regent of the North, and Arya saw him working with Tywin Lannister. Things go From Bad to Worse when Bran reveals that thanks to his powers, he knows that Littlefinger betrayed their father.
You'd Expect: That Petyr would retreat to the Vale and prepare for the wights, keeping a representative in Winterfell who is loyal to him only. Sansa's a lost cause with her family back, Bran has demonstrated the ability to look into Petyr's past and his crimes (just look at Petyr's reaction when Bran says "Chaos is a ladder"), Arya is a Wild Card that cares nothing about politics, and Littlefinger prides himself on not getting trapped.
Instead: Littlefinger tries to turn Sansa and Arya against each other when he thinks he has an in with Sansa, completely forgetting that Bran can see the past.
The Result: This fails completely because the last time Sansa and Arya had a serious disagreement, they paid the price with Lady, Nymeria, and Mycah the butcher's boy; now that they are grown women who have suffered, they aren't going to lose each other again, after Bran busted Littlefinger (off-screen) to Sansa that Littlefinger is indeed manipulating the sisters for his own ends. - After it's demonstrated beyond any doubt that the Night King and his army are a major threat, Cersei offers a truce and military support to Daenerys until the undead are defeated, but ultimately retracts her offer after Jon refuses her request to stay out of any subsequent conflict, making it clear that he supports Daenerys's claim to the Iron Throne, and will continue to do so after the Night King is defeated. Tyrion then tries to appeal to her personally in an attempt to change her mind.
You'd Expect: Cersei to either stick with her initial refusal to help — which would be quite legitimate considering that Jon refused the conditions that she offered, and Daenerys intends to try and depose her after the fact either way — or actually change her mind and truly support the war against the Night King. And if she really has to indulge her Chronic Backstabbing Disorder, then she could at least only send the bare minimum of forces, seeing how over-promising and under-delivering isn't considered a major social faux pas in the same way that oath-breaking is in Westeros.
Instead: She pretends to change her mind and promises support to Daenerys and Jon. Then, just as Jaime is getting ready to march north, she reveals to him that she never had any intention of honoring her promise, and is actually hiring the Golden Company to help mop up either Daenerys' forces or the Army of the Dead, depending on who wins the battle between the two forces. Jaime tries to persuade her that this is an awful idea for all sorts of reasons, but she sticks with her refusal to help, causing Jaime to abandon her and head up to the North himself.
The Result: Sure enough, Cersei proving herself so transparently untrustworthy helps ensure that she ends up with no allies from that point onwards, and this combined with alienating her most experienced military commander will have dire consequences in the longer run.
Season Eight
- Robett Glover and other Northern lords are upset upon discovering that Jon Snow has abdicated his title as King in the North and pledged loyalty to Daenerys Targaryen in an alliance to defend the North from the approaching White Walker threat.
You'd Expect: Winter has come, The Wall has fallen and titles are meaningless as Winterfell is the last line of defense against the approaching army of the dead. Winterfell needs all the men it can get and the southern kingdoms are either unwilling or in no condition to fight. Disputes of nobility need to be put on hold so there is a kingdom left afterward.
Instead: Glover uses this perceived betrayal as an excuse to pull his army out of Winterfell to hide out in Deepwood Motte in the vain hope that they can wait out the war, effectively ensuring the death of everyone there if Winterfell were to fall. He is heavily implied to have been slaughtered and his forces added to the Army of the Dead anyway, giving him A Fate Worse Than Death. - Jaime comes alone to Winterfell. He willingly surrenders to the Stark-Targaryen alliance, to three authority figures that have more than a reason not to trust him and confiscate the sword that was melted from Ned's blade. Bran was also the first person to greet him, with an expression showing that he recognizes who Jaime is and isn't surprised that he arrived. When they put Jaime on trial and force him to admit that Cersei lied about sending troops, Dany and Sansa agree about one thing; Jaime is not trustworthy. Dany cites that he killed Aerys, turning her and her brother into fugitive children that had to fend for themselves and pledged loyalty to a king that tried to assassinate her. Sansa makes it clear to Jaime that she doesn't forgive him for killing Jory or siring Joffrey, who was the source of a lot of her miseries. Jon is listening and waiting to give his opinion; he doesn't like Jaime personally but is willing to hear him out.
You'd Expect: Jaime would realize he's facing three pointy ends of a sword, four if you count Arya waiting with her dagger. He should simply suck up and apologize to save his own skin.
Instead: He says that he will not apologize for being part of a war between their families, saying he was only acting out of duty. This completely ignores that he started the war by pushing Bran out of a window after Bran witnessed him and Cersei having an affair.
The Result: Bran speaks up and says, "The things we do for love," revealing that he remembers who pushed him out of a window. Jaime goes Oh, Crap! and stares at him in shock. It's only thanks to Brienne vouching for Jaime that Sansa reconsiders, and Jon says that they can't afford to be picky about the men that choose to fight for the Living. Bran decides not to tell his siblings, which is the other reason that Jaime is allowed to live since all of the other Stark siblings would want Jaime dead for maiming their little brother. Jaime also reveals that even he didn't buy his own "protecting his family" bullshit when he apologizes to Bran in private, protesting that he's not the same Unwitting Instigator of Doom incestuous knight that he was a few years ago. - As part of the battle plans for having it out with the Night King, Jon, Dany, and Sansa are discussing where to hide the non-combatants. The crypts are suggested.
You'd Expect: Someone to remember that crypts hold dead people. That is, new fodder for the Night King to raise as wights. So they should burn the bodies.
Instead: Everyone forgets this.
Predictably: When the dead rise, Sansa and Tyrion have to prepare to fight to the death, and a good portion of the noncombatants are slaughtered. - The undead army has arrived at the outskirts of Winterfell yet remain hidden due to extremely low visibility caused by the near pitch-black night and the Night King's blizzard.
You'd Expect: The army of the living to maintain a defensive position within Winterfell's walls or right in front of it where they can retreat to cover, wait for the horde to approach within striking distance of their trebuchets and then pound them while flanking them with a horde of their own: The Dothraki.
Instead: The Dothraki charge head-on into an army numbering tens of thousands of undead soldiers that they cannot see. Granted, their weapons were imbued with fire courtesy of Melisandre. But unlike Valyrian steel, fire doesn't one-shot Wights, which the characters are well aware of. They are simply extremely flammable. This results in the entire Dothraki being wiped out in minutes. On top of that, the army of the living position their entire force outside the castle walls, rendering any advantage Winterfell's walls had useless.
Even worse: The Dothraki are highly effective archers who have been shown to fire volleys of flaming arrows from horseback and move quickly. The Dothraki could have been used to distract and harass the wights with their arrows. Alternatively, they could have been used to man the walls of Winterfell and rain flaming arrows on the wights with impunity, either of which would have preserved their numbers while causing casualties to the wights. Not only that, remember that the Dothraki are going to charge anyway regardless of Melisandre's involvement. - The living have built a trench filled with flammable wood and obstacles like dragonglass-tipped spikes in front of Winterfell, and have brought out trebuchets and catapults to rain burning rocks on the wights, in addition to the Unsullied.
You'd Expect: That they'd keep the burning trench and the spikes in front of their troops, keep siege weapons behind the Unsullied, and light the trench as soon as the wights started charging. That way, the Unsullied could use their spears to push back any wights that tried crossing over while the siege weapons showered them with burning rocks from safety.
Instead: The siege weapons - many of which are immobile trebuchets - are placed behind the Dothraki horde and in front of the troops. And the troops, in turn, are placed in front of the burning trench and dragonglass-tipped spikes, meaning that they can't beat a hasty retreat to Winterfell's walls if they're overwhelmed and risk being trapped in the open in front of the wights.
As a result: When the Dothraki horde is thrown away and the wight horde comes crashing in like a tsunami, the siege weapons are instantly overrun and taken out of the fight. Both the Unsullied and Westerosi troops are overwhelmed and have no choice but to head back to Winterfell, but they're slowed down by the obstacles behind them and many more are slaughtered. - In "The Long Night", the Army of the Dead comes close to a perfect victory. Even ignoring the tactical blunders mentioned above, the Northern forces stand no chance against the wights' sheer numbers, while the Walkers' weather control allows them to nearly No-Sell the North's various incendiary tactics. On top of that, the Night King can just revive any enemy dead at will and turn them to his side. The Night King himself doesn't even make an appearance until it truly seems hopeless for the North when it becomes clear that Dany's dragons can't damage him at all. It certainly seems like the Night King will kill Bran, and then the rest of humanity.
You'd Expect: The Night King going with one of two perfectly safe options: use the wights and Walkers to kill Bran quickly, or just hide in a safe spot and wait for all the Living combatants to die if he wants to do the deed himself. His is a Keystone Army and has basically already won, after all—there's no reason to expose himself. Even if he's almost invulnerable there's no reason to risk the enemy possibly taking out his whole forces by only killing him.
Instead: The Night King decides to walk into the godswood while plenty of Living combatants are still around to fight so he can kill Bran himself.
The Result: Arya is able to get the jump on the Night King and stab him with the Valyrian steel dagger, completely ending the threat of the undead in one strike. - Now that the Night King is dead, Dany wants to march the combined North and Targaryen armies south to take care of Cersei. Sansa brings up a legitimate point: their armies are weary after fighting the undead and may not survive a second battle. Dany counterpoints that the longer they wait, the more time Euron and Cersei have to build a fleet and upgrade their weapons. Arya in the meantime is planning to travel to King's Landing to kill the queen personally, without telling anyone. Thanks to Bran, Sansa already knows that Arya was going to go there if she hadn't heard of Jon's return. She also knows Arya was trained to be a Faceless Man.
You'd Expect: Sansa and Arya would volunteer for Arya to go first, with a small retinue, to sneak into and out of King's Landing and survey defenses. If Arya gets official permission to kill Cersei, great! War averted. If not, at least Dany will have some idea of what her armies will be facing. Sansa could also bargain that in exchange for Arya killing Cersei, the North gets independence
Instead: Sansa doesn't volunteer this information, or at least talk with Arya about if it's worth revealing this alternative plan that would reduce casualties and increase their chances of victory.
The Result: Everyone except the Hound misses Arya when she leaves to fulfill her revenge. Dany marches south, where it turns out she and Sansa were right; the armies are too tired to fight upgraded ballistas. - Dany has begged Jon to keep his lineage secret from everyone so she can have the one thing she's always wanted: the Iron Throne. Jon doesn't want the throne, he's totally loyal to Dany, he promises that even if this information were to get out, he would remain subordinate to her, but thinks he owes it to his sisters to tell them and genuinely believes they'll keep this to themselves. Dany tries to make Jon see that what he wants and what other people want (ie. pressing his claim) can be entirely at odds...
You'd Expect: Knowing how Sansa has been schooled in politics by Cersei and Littlefinger about how to weaponise information, and having experienced her penchant for playing with critical information (the Knights of the Vale in the Battle of the Bastards), and how she still dislikes Dany, even after the Dragon Queen sacrificed everything to save their bacon, Jon would know better than to share any sensitive information with Sansa.
Instead: Jon makes Sansa pinky-swear not to tell anyone (thinking that would be enough), then tells her he's a Targaryen.
The Result: Sansa immediately begins using Jon's lineage against Dany, against his wishes, and starts stirring up trouble for whatever purpose she has in mind. One can almost hear Littlefinger's line from Season 1 as she blabs to Tyrion. "I did warn you not to trust me..." - Sansa gets one too. Jon has revealed who he truly is, and knowing that he's the true heir to the Iron Throne is incendiary. However, he has trusted Sansa and Arya with the secret explicitly because they are family.
You'd Expect: That Sansa would have the sense not to weaponize that particular bit of information, at least not immediately. Jon may be a Targaryen, but he is still family, and it would cause a lot of trouble to him and to the rest of the Starks if that information were to leak. Also, if the leak means that Daenerys's forces are split and her advisers start scheming against her before she's gotten rid of Cersei, she could lose to Cersei and the war could go on, which is in nobody's interests.
Instead: Sansa tells Tyrion about it.
For Added Stupidity: You'd expect Tyrion to have the sense to keep his mouth shut about this, but he goes ahead and tells Varys, who has a record of betraying rulers whom he is unhappy with.
The Result: Varys starts scheming to depose Daenerys in favor of Jon. Not only does he do this before Cersei is defeated, but he also does this while Daenerys is still around and fails in discretion. This threatens both to undermine Daenerys's position even before Cersei is removed and ultimately seals his own fate when Daenerys finds out. Sansa is horrified where, thanks to her actions, Jon is forced to kill Dany before she burns the whole world and the new council of Westeros elects to send him to the Wall again to amend for his Kingslayer position. Her family is separated again, and it's partly her fault. - Jaime has finally got himself rid of Cersei's influence and managed to be known as one of the heroes who saved the Realm from the Army of the Dead. He and Brienne have also come together after several seasons and are quite a good Battle Couple in their own right. By now, Bronn has successfully managed to infiltrate Winterfell, tried to assassinate both Tyrion and Jaime on Cersei's orders, and dropped the news that Cersei has been able to recruit the Golden Company and is upgrading the castle as they speak.
You'd Expect: Jaime to tell Daenerys about this new information to get his pardon sooner. Like when Daenerys legitimized Gendry as the Lord of the Stormlands, Jaime also would have been able to curry good favor with Daenerys, and to possibly simplify her battle strategy.
Instead: Jaime decides to return back to Cersei! After learning Cersei's plans, Jaime somehow figured out she will prevail against Daenerys and promptly defects to her side again, exactly the reputation he wanted to avoid since the night he became the Kingslayer. He also manages to ditch a tearful Brienne after a mere one night stand.
Result: Jaime is immediately recognized by Daenerys's army and is captured, this time for defection. - Varys has observed that Daenerys is not loved by the Northerners, due to the Targaryens' history with the Starks, even when she played a role in defeating the Army of the Dead. Daenerys also has a history of just burning her enemies alive, and not taking many prisoners. Meanwhile, Varys just finds out from Tyrion that Jon Snow is actually Aegon Targaryen, the true heir to the Iron Throne, and his claim supersedes that of Daenerys due to being the son of Rheagar, Daenerys's eldest brother. Varys begins to suspect Daenerys has also inherited the Targaryen madness, so, Varys starts plotting to remove Daenerys from power, and also genuinely believing Jon would be the better ruler.
You'd Expect: Varys to discreetly plot against Daenerys without telling anyone, perhaps at a time when she doesn't expect it, and slowly turn the masses and her armies against her, preferably after Daenerys wins her war. Varys to also look for concrete proof that Daenerys is going mad due to the impatience of not getting her long-coveted Iron Throne, and use that to remove Daenerys's claim altogether, as even Targaryens skipped over mad heirs for proper rulers. Also to take in Jon Snow's silent support by showing him Daenerys is not the proper ruler she ruled over Meereen as.
Instead: Varys begins to talk about betraying Daenerys to Tyrion openly, starts leaving obvious clues Varys is trying to poison Daenerys, and even taking aside Jon Snow and effectively inviting him to commit treason against his loved ones. It was only luck that Jon didn't tell Daenerys about Varys, but that doesn't do him much good, because... See below.
Result: Tyrion reveals to Daenerys that Varys is planning to betray her in favor of Jon Snow, which results in Varys's execution, an outcome he could have logically seen coming. Also, this drives up further rift between Daenerys, Jon, and rest of her advisers, which led to Daenerys believing she's truly alone, contributing to her massacre of King's Landing. - Tyrion is caught between a rock and a hard place. When Dany marches to King's Landing, her tired army gets ambushed. Cersei succeeds in killing one of her dragons and taking Missandei hostage. Tyrion and Qyburn come out to negotiate; if Dany storms King's Landing, Missandei's life is forfeit but Tyrion offers to let Cersei and her unborn baby leave in peace if she abdicates and frees Missandei. Cersei is gambling that if Dany burns King's Landing, then it will make her appear as another tyrant conqueror and not Rightful King Returns and so her rule will be short and unloved.
You'd Expect: Cersei to use Missandei as a Human Shield by keeping her in King's Landing; if Dany burns everyone, then Missandei dies as well, making it a Pyrrhic Victory. Missandei may be okay with that, but Dany is not. That will at least buy Cersei and Euron time to either launch another ambush on the tired armies.
In Addition: With the two most valuable leaders of your rival's claim to the throne and the one remaining dragon within range of your weapons, it would require little effort to unleash your ranged artillery and kill them all, if the parley goes south. The rules of war haven't stopped her before.
You'd Also Expect: Tyrion to know that Cersei is beyond reason and instead negotiate solely with Qyburn, whose only flaw is Undying Loyalty to his queen. Trusting Cersei's self-preservation instinct last season was what allowed her to deceive them.
Instead: Tyrion sincerely begs Cersei to surrender for herself and her baby's sake so that her unborn child won't suffer. Cersei briefly considers it, only to order Missandei's execution, and lets them leave afterward. She sacrifices her only viable hostage, the way her son Joffrey did back in season one. Cersei doesn't even bother to unleash the ballistas on the remnant of the army to win the war there and then.
The Result: Dany follows the command of Missandei's last words, "Dracarys." Tyrion watches in horror as the two queens go to war, ending in Daenerys's brutal Curb-Stomp Battle. That's not even considering what Daenerys did later on. - Daenerys has finally managed to turn the tables on the Lannister contingency in the war by attacking (and destroying) the Golden Company, the Iron Fleet, the ballistae across King's Landing, as well as the morale of the Lannister Army, which signals them to surrender the city to Daenerys. They ring the bells (as marked by Tyrion) to indicate the city has fallen to Daenerys and her army.
You'd Expect: Daenerys to accept the surrender gracefully. She has already won the war, she has no reason to fight any more.
Or You'd Expect: If Daenerys was really angry, she'd concentrate on burning Cersei and the Red Keep down for killing Missandei. It will show Westeros she's very serious about taking the continent, and resisting her will mean idiocy in the long run.
Instead: She gets pissed off at the bells ringing and begins burning down literally everything else first, destroying King's Landing to the ground and killing around a million civilians, and eventually in the end, burning the Red Keep down.
As A Result: Tyrion turns on her, and convinces Jon to kill Daenerys. Jon hesitates, but after hearing Daenerys talk about 'liberating' everything from Winterfell to Dorne, from Qarth to Lannisport, Jon realizes Daenerys is serious on razing the entire continent down to liberate it. Jon eventually kills her, and everything she worked for, ended up for nought in the end. - Jon steels himself to convince Daenerys, and if she's not, then killing her. He makes his way to the throne room.
You'd Expect: Dany to have some people loyal only to her in the room all the time, which won't be any difficulty from the Unsullied and the Dothraki. She just massacred a city, and Tyrion betrayed her, she will surely expect any of her newfound enemies to attempt assassinating her.
Instead: She doesn't have any guards around her at all. Anyone could just walk up to her and attempt assassinating her.
Result: Jon tries convincing Dany to convince the world that she can be a merciful ruler, and when she refuses, reluctantly assassinates her. Drogon then burns the Iron Throne and takes away Dany's body, and if Jon (probably) didn't confess to murdering Dany, he would have gotten away scot-free, which Jon wouldn't have been able to do at all if Dany even had one loyal guard with her.
