Line #97 Main/SurvivorshipBias


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6	[[quoteright:317:[[Webcomic/{{xkcd}} https://static.tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pub/images/survivorship_bias.png]]]]
7	[[caption-width-right:317:[-[[AltText They say you can't argue with results, but what kind of defeatist attitude is that? If you stick with it, you can argue with ANYTHING.]]-]]]
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9	->''"The survivor bias was evident in the reception of Walter Isaacson's 2011 best-selling biography of Steve Jobs, as readers scrambled to understand what made the mercurial genius so successful. Want to be the next Steve Jobs and create the next Apple Computer? Drop out of college and start a business with your buddies in the garage of your parents' home. How many people have followed the Jobs model and failed? Who knows? No one writes books about them and their unsuccessful companies."''
10	-->-- ''Scientific American'', "How the Survivor Bias Distorts Reality"
11
12	[[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias Survivorship Bias]] is the tendency to address a problem or issue by focusing only on the people who survive, benefit, or escape from it.
13
14	This is an OmnipresentTrope, due to the nature of TheProtagonist trope. Because a fictional story focuses on a single character (or a small group of characters), they are presented to the audience as being more "important" than the people the story ''doesn't'' focus on, and the audience comes to naturally see themselves in those characters.
15
16	{{Horror}}, {{Conspiracy Thriller}}s, {{Disaster Movie}}s, OscarBait films and other genres with large victim counts or other forms of systemic oppression, use this trope more than any other. Suspense relies upon the audience accepting a real and imminent danger, but at the same time empathizing with someone ''still IN'' danger. For that reason, other victims (past or present) are given less importance than the survivors telling the story. While this is sometimes unavoidable (after all, if there's a killer on the loose, then ''some'' people are already dead, so there's no helping them now), the audience is often expected to still feel the most relieved when the FinalGirl survives the ordeal, feel their greatest distress when TheHeroDies like everyone else, or cheer for a less-deserving team because UnderdogsNeverLose.
17
18	An even more troublesome version comes from movies BasedOnATrueStory. For example, if the overall story is about a terrible event like a disaster or plague, or an ongoing problem such as poverty or oppression, focusing only on people who survived or overcame the problem can lead to the audience impression that anyone could have done it if they had just tried a little harder. This bias often interacts with the Just World Fallacy (a [[LogicalFallacies Logical Fallacy]] that assumes good things happen to good people etc.) to create the implication that those who died were somehow morally inferior. This leads to various horror and slasher film tropes in which characters will presage their deaths by certain attitudes or actions, such as [[AssholeVictim having an abrasive personality]] or [[SexSignalsDeath having premarital sex]].
19
20	'''Take care before listing "Aversions" or "Subversions".''' On the one hand, while any story where {{Everybody Dies\|Ending}} seems like an aversion, it depends on several factors, like:
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22	* Do they survive long enough to tell an entire story? Or, in a non-death example, does their particular problem get highlighted over a large number of similar examples (aka "Rosa Parks" Syndrome[[note]]Rosa Parks was not the first or only Black person, or woman, to refuse to give up her seat. She, however, happened to be the right age, gender, background… and most importantly, [[ButNotTooBlack skin tone]]… to invoke media outcry[[/note]])?
23	* Does their death/problem have any meaningful impact on other survivors or people who can fix it? (aka HeroicSacrifice, InspirationalMartyr or WhiteMansBurden)
24
25	If the answer is yes, then they aren't an "aversion" or "subversion", because the story is still biased towards them over the other victims involved.
26
27	SubTrope to the AnthropicPrinciple — the idea that certain elements of a story have to be the way they are or there would ''be'' no story worth telling. SuperTrope to ProtagonistCenteredMorality. SisterTrope to ShaggyDogStory. Characters that understand the implications of this trope invoke SurvivorGuilt. Because the bias is almost inevitable when TheProtagonist trope is used, a DecoyProtagonist would be another way to play with this trope. Compare DeadToBeginWith, where since they "survived" as an undead or something else, this trope is still played straight.
28
29	!!Tropes which rely on this often:
30	[[index]]
31	* AfterTheEnd: By its nature, the focus on this type of story is on what comes ''after'' the apocalypse, not on those who died during.
32	* UsefulNotes/TheAmericanDream: The idealists emphasize finding your own noble destiny in America, while the cynics claim that your life won't improve at all. Successes tend to be counted in favor of it, and failures ignored.
33	* BlamingTheVictim: If life doesn't go your way, it's ''your'' fault because you didn't work hard enough/lacked drive or willpower/used drugs or alcohol/had premarital sex/whatever.
34	* FinalGirl: Everyone else is dead, but her survival is still the only concern on the audience's mind.
35	* FinalSolution: Works about UsefulNotes/TheHolocaust tend to focus on survivors (''Film/SchindlersList'', ''Film/ThePianist'') rather than those who actually died in ghettos or camps.
36	* HardWorkFallacy: If you work hard, you ''will'' succeed, no matter what may be working against you. If you don't succeed, it's only because you didn't work hard enough.
37	* HardWorkHardlyWorks: The character's survival is expected because they have a Gift on a certain skill that makes them important to the plot. If someone who has the same skill set because they worked all of their lives to gain it also appears, expect him to be either a RedShirt or (at best) a MentorArchetype who will recognize the character's Gift before being bumped off. Works that avert this trope will instead place much importance on ''experience'', not "hard work" in general.
38	* InspirationallyDisadvantaged: Being disadvantaged does not typically inspire anyone, but it always does in fiction.
39	* JapaneseSpirit: Any problem can be overcome if you have the proper combination of talent, resolve, and willpower. If you don't, then you probably aren't the main character.
40	* MiseryBuildsCharacter: A person, or noble group of people, who have grown to have some sort of virtue or wisdom because they survived the bad thing. In effect, making it a "good thing" to a degree. This relies upon counting the people who are possibly improved through adversity (or at least rise above it) rather than the opposite.
41	* NominalImportance: Characters which are important to the plot will be given a name and followed around. Those who are not important to the plot (and killed by the crowd-full) will probably not even be given a nickname or [[EverybodyCallsHimBarkeep a profession for the audience to apply a nickname to]]. Expect this on works where AMillionIsAStatistic.
42	* RagsToRiches: The story focuses on this character's journey from poverty to affluence, rather than the characters' whose situation will not change.
43	* SelfMadeMan: A character who became wealthy and powerful despite humble beginnings.
44	* UnderdogsNeverLose: The unlikely team always wins. [[MindScrew Which makes you wonder if the likely teams are now the unlikely ones.]]
45	[[/index]]
46
47	!!Played With:
48	* ApocalypticLog: An interesting interpretation of this trope when used inside of a story rather than as the story proper: it shows us the ''almost'' survivor we'd otherwise be focusing on, possibly even giving them scenes or flashbacks.
49	* DecoyProtagonist: A character we follow for a period of time throughout the story who we ''believe'' is the focus of the story (and probably provides an interesting story during his time on the limelight), but the narrative tosses him away (sometimes on [[DroppedABridgeOnHim a nonchalantly lethal fashion]], and maybe just up and forgotten) when a character that the story will focus on from now on (and ''maybe'' is more interesting) appears.
50	* FoundFootageFilms: We know going in that the protagonists didn't survive whatever ordeal the plot focuses on. However, the premise relies on the fact that they usually last long enough for there to be someone to make the movie, which still places more focus on the (albeit still-doomed) survivors than the other victims.
51	* HighHopesZeroTalent: One reason why someone might fail to achieve success is because they have the dream, but not the skills to make it come true.
52	* PinballProtagonist: A means of [[DeconstructedTrope deconstructing this trope]], in which the character survives to the end through dumb luck, rather than skill, moral standing; etc. They fail to make a meaningful impact on the story they take part in, with their PointOfView being their sole contribution to the story.
53	* PosthumousNarration: We may or may not know that the character is dead from the beginning, but the character still believes that he has a story worth telling (most probably in a "[[JacobMarleyWarning learn from what happened to me]], don't let it happen to you" kind of way).
54	----
55	!!Examples:
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57	[[foldercontrol]]
58
59	[[folder:Comic Books]]
60	* In ''ComicBook/{{Crowded}}'', Vita Slatter, a bodyguard for hire, has abyssmal ratings on the DEFNDR app. When her most recent agent Charlie asks about it, Vita points out that all the people who hired her lived long enough to leave those ratings.
61	[[/folder]]
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63	[[folder:Films — Live-Action]]
64	* Averted in ''Film/{{All Quiet on the Western Front\|1930}}'', every named protagonist dies by the end. It's justified since the film is based around an [[WarIsHell anti-war message]].
65	* In ''Film/{{Gravity}}'', Ryan Stone is one out of two astronauts to survive the opening scenes, but she remains the central focus of the film even before George Clooney's character dies.
66	* An overwhelming majority of films about UsefulNotes/TheHolocaust feature this, focusing on Jews who survived, rather than the six million who were gassed or shot or starved to death.
67	** Averted in Creator/JerryLewis's notorious unreleased Holocaust film ''Film/TheDayTheClownCried''. At the end, the eponymous clown dies, along with everyone he tried to help.
68	** ''Film/ThePianist'': Deconstructed. Szpilman knows what fate awaits his family and many others, and has massive SurvivorsGuilt.
69	** ''Film/SchindlersList'': The entire premise of the film relies on this. However, it's a case of Administrivia/TropesAreNotBad, since it's a ''rare'' piece of good news coming from that era.
70	** ''Film/SonOfSaul'': Averted, as the main protagonist is a Jew who dies in the Holocaust (specifically, an escape from Auschwitz), along with almost everyone he knows. WordOfGod from the director was that he set out to make a Holocaust movie that averted this trope.
71	* Zig-zagged in ''Film/{{Psycho}}''. While the DecoyProtagonist [[ItWasHisSled dies early in the film]], after the story continues on, the narrative shifts its emotional investment to the surviving characters and VillainProtagonist. Detective Arbogast is the next victim, demonstrating that not all sleuths live long enough to catch the killer.
72	* Averted in the 1932 film ''Film/TheSignOfTheCross'', directed by Creator/CecilBDeMille. All the Christians die, as well as the male lead. All the named antagonists live and prosper (due to being actual historical people who died later).
73	* ''Film/WorldTradeCenter'' tells the true story of two Transit Authority cops who were buried in the rubble when the towers collapsed on 9/11 but miraculously survived. While the enormous tragedy around them is not downplayed, the focus is on their survival and the people who ended up rescuing them.
74	[[/folder]]
75
76	[[folder:Literature]]
77	* Averted in ''Literature/NineteenEightyFour'', where the protagonist [[ItWasHisSled ends up being just another would-be rebel]] who's brainwashed back into a model citizen (so he can't even be a DoomedMoralVictor) and quietly terminated. It's left up in the air if there was even a rebellion for him to join.
78	* Possibly the reason for the popular understanding of elves as always good, wise and perfect. In ''Literature/TolkiensLegendarium'' (which is more or less the OG high fantasy work), there were elves who made huge mistakes and/or were terrible jerks, but they seem to have managed to get themselves all killed way before ''Literature/TheLordOfTheRings'' and far less people know about the other works comprising the cycle.
79	** Also probably why the elves most often encountered in modern literature are "wood elves" of some sort. In the aforementioned lesser-known works taking place earlier there are many mighty kingdoms belonging to other types of elves that can't really be associated with forests more than humans can be. But by the time of ''The Lord of the Rings'' those kingdoms are either destroyed or on a continent that is very difficult to reach and the wood elves remain the only ones left (except Rivendell which defies classification)
80	* ''Literature/{{Discworld}}'':
81	** ''Literature/TheFifthElephant'': Discussed in universe with Carrot saying that there had never been a documented wolf attack on people out in the wilds, and Gaspode replies that just means that all the people who did get attacked by wolves just never made it back to tell anyone. They both agree that that isn't very comforting, especially with all the wolf howls around.
82	** ''Literature/SmallGods'' recalls the prophecy of a god's high priest that this god's followers would defeat a rival religion and feast in it's temple. This prophecy came true and actually was made in advance. Only five minutes in advance, while the high priest and his mob of followers were right outside the temple, but still.
83	* ''Literature/TheLittleMatchGirl'' is an aversion of the RagsToRiches variant. It's about a poor girl who tries to make money selling matches in the middle of winter, and ends up freezing to death.
84	[[/folder]]
85
86	[[folder:Live-Action TV]]
87	* This is often an averted trope with episodic series prone to killing off the protagonists, like ''Series/{{The Outer Limits\|1963}}'' or ''Series/TalesFromTheCrypt''.
88	* Discussed on ''Series/AdamRuinsEverything'', when a young man decides he doesn't really need college, since he can just drop out and become a successful entrepreneur like Bill Gates. Adam points out that success stories like that are a rarity, and that only 1% of jobs are given to people without ''at least'' a bachelor's degree. He further explains that Bill Gates ''already'' had several advantages that most people do not (and don't mention when discussing his success). Namely, he came from a wealthy family, who could afford to send him to a prestigious prep school, which had access to a then-state-of-the-art computer that most schools (and homes) did not. He had classes on how to use and create programs for that computer, so he already had ''lots'' of experience with computer programming (again, something that not a lot of people had back in [[TheEighties the early 80's]]). On top of that, his family name gave him connections to wealthy people who were willing to take a chance on his company that a random person would not get. ''And'', while it's true that he didn't complete his bachelor's degree, he also never ''officially'' dropped out of school. (Just took an extended break.) Even if he ''had'', he'd still be able to go back on his wealthy (and supportive) parents' dime if his business plans hadn't worked out the way they did.
89	* With very few aversions, ''Series/{{Rescue 911}}'' focused on emergencies that ended up with the person in danger surviving and continuing to live a normal life (although not always in one piece), as well as victims of massive disasters that also survived the destruction.
90	[[/folder]]
91
92	[[folder:RealLife]]
93	* [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Wald Abraham Wald]] famously applied this trope during UsefulNotes/WorldWarII. He was part of a research group tasked with improving bomber armor by analyzing planes returning from missions. The group suggested adding armor to the places that showed the greatest damage. Wald objected, pointing out that, since all the planes they were looking at had ''survived'' their mission, their damage would appear most often in places that ''didn't'' need armor, and the correct action would be to add armor to the areas with the ''least'' amount of damage.
94	** On the topic of [=WW2=] is the myth about the American Sherman tank being a "death trap". Statistics show that it had an excellent survival rate of around 96%, in large part due to large and well-located spring-loaded hatches allowing the crew to bail out of the tank quickly (and each crew member having their own dedicated hatch so they could all escape simultaneously) while competing tanks like the T-34 and Panzer IV had much more cramped interiors (so it was harder to move swiftly while inside them) with fewer escape hatches. This is specifically where myths such as "Shermans being easily destroyed" or "Shermans catching fire easily" come from, ''the crew got out to talk about it''. Statistics indicate that it would take having two Sherman shot out from under them to be at risk of losing ''one'' crewman. Conversely, every time a T-34 was destroyed, it was almost a guarantee you'd lose one crewman, common to lose two or three, and not unheard-of to lose the whole crew due to volatile cookoff. This was further exacerbated by the fact that Shermans often took damage that could disable the vehicle without utterly destroying it--this led to many Shermans returning for repairs and earning a reputation for fragility. As it turns out, their German and Russian counterparts simply ''exploded'' in a grandiose and unsurvivable fashion due to incoming damage or scuttling charges, and as such never returned for repairs (and therefore never showed up nearly as often in repair reports).
95	* There have been some real life stories of people stuck in the ocean being pushed to safety by a FriendlyPlayfulDolphin. However, we don't know if the dolphin was trying to save them or (more likely) just being playful, as [[FridgeHorror anyone who got pushed further OUT to sea by dolphins drowned and can't tell us]].
96	* It's unfortunately common for poor people who become rich and famous to assume anyone can do it, and completely overlook the (much more likely) explanation that they either got lucky, or had some rare knack for something that the vast majority of people don't have. This can sometimes goes from simply fallacious to downright reprehensible, as such people sometimes [[TheSocialDarwinist assume anyone who's poor or otherwise having a hard time is just lazy and doesn't deserve any sympathy.]]
97	* UsefulNotes/SteveJobs, Bill Gates, and Mark Zuckerberg all dropped out of college and founded trillion-dollar tech companies in their twenties, though when looking at the bigger picture, [[https://www.forbes.com/sites/abdoriani/2021/10/27/stats-show-the-ideal-startup-founder-is-not-who-you-may-think-they-are/?sh=4925c3d9485d more than 95%]] of founders of successful startups are college graduates, with the majority holding advanced degrees, and the success rate of startups increases dramatically with age.
98	* The term "caveman". In reality, prehistoric people were nomadic, with a tribe traveling between a large number of locations over a vast territory, sometimes living in gullies, sometimes building huts, and only rarely using caves. However, only a cave has a significant chance of preserving artifacts across tens of millennia. This is an issue for paleontology, too. Most animals will just never fossilize, and therefore, we will never know anything about the vast majority of extinct animals. In particular, animals that lived on mountains rarely fossilize, so we know much more about species from lower elevations.
99	* This trope is why follow-the-leader/trends happens in the video game market and why so many of the trend-followers fail catastrophically. For example, when the MMORPG genre was dominated by ''VideoGame/WorldOfWarcraft'' in the mid-2000s through the mid-2010s, other publishers saw the success and wanted a slice of that pie, not realizing how ''hard'' it is to create an MMO that people want to play and keep coming back to. The end result was that for some years, a new MMO of some stripe or another would march up to WOW's cave every couple of months, and WOW's massive retention rate would bludgeon it dead within a year because the challenger vastly underestimated the difficulty of entering the MMO market and pulling people away from the game they'd already invested with their time, effort, and emotion. A similar thing happened to live service games in the [=2020s=].

Context Main / SurvivorshipBias