This is discussion archived from a time before the current discussion method was installed.
Desertopa: Does the Bannus's quote from Hexwood really belong here? Considering that it's a vastly powerful supercomputer designed to process branching chains of events, it's only natural that it can do this sort of thing. Being nigh omniscient is part of its design specs.
Freezair For A Limited Time: This is true, but when I read it, I thought it perfectly summed up the nature of the Xanatos Roulette. Being designed to scheme improbably doesn't necessarily stop one's schemes from being improbable.
Burai: I'm finding it hard to figure out how those three words from Death Note could really require spoiler space, since just sticking an example in this trope basically announces that phrase or a semantic equivalent will appear somewhere in the plot. :-)
Binaroid: It's a joke, naturally, but (massive spoilers for the Yotsuba arc): It's a reference to the climax of the Yotsuba arc, which Light had spent in an self-induced Forgot the Call Heel–Face Turn. As soon as he regains his memories of being Kira, the story immediately subverts Amnesiac Dissonance when Light's first thought is "I've won. (evil smirk). Just as planned."), revealing that this was a plot to gain L's trust in order to kill him.
Wiki: Does every one really need an anime screenshot? Regardless, this particularly one just doesn't do the job. I mean all that one does it show some dude doing an evil smile.
Seth: The image is a somewhat infamous seen from Death Note that has become a meme. It is the moment a particularly complicated Xanatos Roulette pays off. - Might need some more exposition.
Egak: In Naruto's defense, Orochimaru's plan could still have worked with most of the ways the tournament pairings could have gone, as long as both Sasuke and Gaara could manage to avoid being eliminated before they had a chance to go up against eachother.
(I'm not exactly sure what you think Orochimaru's plan was here. Oro wanted Gaara to transform in Konoha, not well outside of it where he was doing them no real good. Sasuke injuring Gaara derailed that part of Oro's plan.)
Jordan: I don't know how much to describe this, since it's a major spoiler, but I just watched Les Diaboliques, and it seems to me that depending on how charitable one is, the twist ending is ether a Xanatos Gambit or Roulette. It seems very dependent on knowing how a character will act at specific moments, and at the very end, the plotters seem to know she will wake up at a certain time, something I can't see how they could possibly plan for. Incidently, the movie has a Columbo clone years before Columbo was even invented.
Ununnilium: Sounds Roulette-ish.
Seth: To save you some time, there is no point putting a redirect on the talk page. Clicking discussion on the main page will take you here if the redirect already takes you to the main entry.
There was a similar example in a two part Hawaii 5-0 (although the villains plans don't come to fruition). Chinese super-agent Wo Fat sets up a scheme that's taken literally "years" to implement, involving framing Mc Garrett with false Swiss bank accounts, surgically-altered duplicates, leaks to the media, the entire purpose of which is to distract Mc Garrett at a crucial moment when another operation is going on. The problem is that Mc Garrett, trying to figure out the reason for the frame, discovers Wo Fat was behind it and realizes that the spy has to be up to something in order to go to all that trouble. This then leads to Mc Garrett discovering what the real operation is and thwarting it. It was shown, however, that during a test run of Wo Fat's plan, no one knew what was going on (although Mc Garrett makes the connection later, in time to do the aforementioned thwarting). If Wo Fat hadn't tried his convoluted scheming, Mc Garrett (and everyone else) would have been totally oblivious that something was happening.
{Pepinson}: Removing the entry on Darth Sidious's plot, because A) it's already detailed much more carefully in Xanatos Gambit, B) the supposedly random factor is the ability of two Jedi to rescue someone from an army of mooks, something that has never failed to happen in the history of the franchise, and C) Palpatine doesn't need to seem omniscient, because he pretty much is—if you believe the expanded universe, even his death in the last movie was just a convenient way to dispose of Darth Vader and transfer his [Palpatine's] spirit into a clone...
Laurus: I'm not sure that the Card Captor Sakura example counts as a Xanatos Roulette. It's stated that Clow was nearly omniscient, and that his foresight let him know in advance almost everything that would happen, including the tiniest details. This is more elaborate in the manga (it's explained there that his foresight was in fact uncontrollable, and part of his motivation was to get rid of it) but it's still true for the anime.
Lale: Which makes it believable, but still present.
Laurus: But doesn't it make it a Xanatos Gambit if there are no random factors involved?
Kongming: I removed the V for Vendetta example. I don't think any character with super intelligence really belongs here, however much of a "stretch" it might seem to some editors. Maybe it could go in the Xanatos Gambit article, though.
TheUncredibleHallq: I can't find the original V for Vendetta write-up, so I don't know whether it was well-justified or not. However, at least one element of V's plot in the original comic seems a clear example, super intelligence or no. This is a good place to remember that Tropes Are Not Bad. Just because it's never explained how V could have expected his gambit to work doesn't mean it wasn't cool.
Honore DB: How do you end up with a mostly-spoilered entry on an Agatha Christie novel that still gives away the identity of the murderer? Spoilered.
ysqure3: As far as webcomics go, pretty much the entirety of Bob and George is a Xanatos Roulette (Gambit?), as is the Supergreg arc of Dominic Deegan.
MrOnimusha: Though it's funny to watch, Elliot's scam on Scrubs isn't a Roulette and I wouldn't even call it a Gambit. All she does is write on the paper and hope JD doesn't notice it before he gets to Molly's - nothing that occurs between then and him finally catching Molly occurs because Elliot meant it to, which is the key deficiency. It all just happened.
Lord Seth: Not sure who changed the "Just Exactly as planned" caption to just "Exactly as planned". I think the former is much funnier. Switched it back.
Laurus: I moved the Card Captor Sakura example to Xanatos Gambit, because even if it's a convoluted plot there are no random factors at all. I also cleaned it up a bit; it was full of discussion and it kept using the word "apparently" for things that were in fact explained in the series.
Zephid: Took out
- Fyodor Dostoevsky is likely the most famous pioneer of the Xanatos Roulette. The stupendously complex mindgames played by nearly every character in The Brothers Karamazov require several readings and maybe a college course to comprehend at the basic level. Crime and Punishment plays similar games starring Porifiry Petrovich, whose mindbending "Ah, but if you knew that I knew that one of us was to know" arguments drive Raskolnikov to confession and the reader to the local nuthouse.
Redkun: Took out
- The entire plan of the evil Empire of Final Fantasy XII hinges upon one of the party being chosen by the gods and undertaking their quest, then disobeying them at the end of it. To which ends they invade and dominate two countries, built the largest battlestation ever, and risk the Princess actually obeying the gods after all and having the greatest weapon against them.
Lord Seth: It seems an Edit War may have sprung up regarding the caption. Is there any real reason why "Exactly as planned" is better than the (in my opinion, much funnier) "
Dion Shmion: I found a compromise.
Austin: I cut off most of the Chzo Mythos example. For one thing, it went too much into personal commentary as the writer was gushing about how awesome Chzo is. For another, the commentary on the special editions state that much of what happened wasn't directly Chzo's intentions, as I detail in the Magnificient Bastard discussion.
Shaoken: I edited the MGS 4 one, since Ocelot wasn't working with Big Boss due to the latter being kept in a brain-dead state since the end of MG 2.
Daikiwixep: I edited the Super Paper Mario example because it is more The Chessmaster and Xanatos Speed Chess than Xanatos Roulette. I kept part of the original descritpion; however, I added that it did not belong under this category. I decided to add a better "lithmus test" to the original description.
If the plan has a basis on unexplained luck, it is a Xanatos Roulette.
J Dreyfuss: I agree with most of what was said about Wild Things, but the fact that Suzie and Sam both chose the same sleazy lawyer is not as unfeasible as the author had suggested. It could have been either a coincidence: that they both chose the same lawyer (especially one whose name is near the front of the list, alphabetically) to do their respective dirty work, that Suzie directed Sam to Bowden as part of her plot, or that she made a situational adjustment and approached Bowden after Sam had hired him.
Charred Knight: Due to the fact that some people being confused about what this trope is (you don't want your character on this page as it shows your character's plan is based on luck) I edited some of the Code Geass examples to point out that some of Lelouch's plans in the end (especially the one that defeated Schneizel) where completely nonsensical, and removed one that was Xanatos Speed Chess. Xingke outsmarted Lelouch when he pointed out that Lelouch didn't plan for the ground to be so soft entrapping Lelouch's ground forces, and forced Lelouch to go to a plan that took advantage of the fact that the Eunechs where idiots. Code Geass is pretty good when Okouchi and Taniguchi can come up with clever Xanatos Speed Chess, it falls apart when Lelouch basically becomes Omniscient. I also edited some of Gundams since we don't know what Aeolia's original plan is but I am hoping it was just hijacked by Ribbons instead of being some complete nonsense based around Ribbons getting a God complex, and planning an entire war 200 years before.
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Don't think Chaos warrants being here. 1.The banker tripped the alarm, but they could have done that at any point themselves, or waited long enough for people to notice a bank being sealed. The banker just accelerated the process. 2. The ringleader ensured Connors was the negotiator by refusing to speak to anyone else. The rest are explained by Connors being in on the job as well. The only valid one is seven, and even then they were going into a house looking for accomplices, so didn't necessarily know how many were supposed to be there.
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The caption states "Translator's note: Keikaku means plan." I'm not sure why the rest of the caption is translated, except for that word. I mean, it's not got a subtle, ambiguous meaning, or at least if it does, the Translator's note doesn't elaborate on any such subtlety.
Caswin: But for the Flame War I'm sure it would somehow lead to, I am strangely tempted to "fix" it in Spanish.
Shale: It's an in-joke. See Too Long; Didn't Dub. —-
I'm suggesting "Yagami Gambit" as an alternate name, since Light Yagami uses the Roulette a lot in his zeal to create a perfect world.
