South Caucasus thread

Saakashvili lost yesterday's parliamentary elections in Georgia. Notably, he said he fully accepts the results and is willing to cooperate (which in itself means a big victory for the Revolution of Roses), if my newspaper is to be believed. This may have an effect on the neighbouring Caucasian states.

Don't count the chickens yet. His opponent (and now PM-elect) is essentially in limbo for a year until the amendment transferring executive power from the president to the parliament come into effect, which is after Saakashvili's term expires. Until then, while Saakashvili is a lame duck president compared to the near-autocratic power he had been wielding, he otherwise holds all the real power.

That's not entirely true — the incoming Parliament, for instance, gets to choose the cabinet, and while Saakashvili has the right to veto these choices, he has indicated that he will work with the opposition's selections. This could have an impact on how the ministries function — a major part of the government.

Yes, but choosing the cabinet won't be as simple in this case though because of the broad nature of Georgian Dream. You have pro-NATO parties sitting right alongside isolationists and unionists sitting right beside free marketers. And while Saakashvili has stated he won't abuse his powers, that doesn't mean he or members of his party won't try to play Georgian Dream against itself and pull a Maliki.

Random fun fact: the Other Wiki says Georgia has quite an active monarchist movement.

Okay, now I've got more than just a random fun fact. In short — as it appears, there's something of a spy war going on in Azerbaijan, over the Iranian nuclear program. I can't really describe it concisely enough, so here are some articles I googled:

• http://www.thenational.ae/news/world/middle-east/iran-and-azerbaijan-in-spy-feud
• http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=39661
• http://articles.cnn.com/2012-03-14/asia/world_asia_azerbaijan-spy-arrests_1_azerbaijan-iranian-azeris-baku?_s=PM:ASIA

Among other things — we can ask ourselves if it is going to have an impact on Azeri-Armenian issues.

edited 10th Oct '12 2:54:56 PM by lordGacek

Could be some new problems in Nagorno Karabakh....

No one knows the whole death toll, though some other headlines were saying something like 51 dead..

And speaking of Nagorno-Karabakh...

Aliyev's feed is here.

Bismarck must be rolling in his grave.

Gonna wonder if that little rhetoric exercise is matched by military capacity, or just a load of hot air.

How do I foreign policy??

I suspect the latter.

Unfortunately, it isn't hot air. Baku's oil wealth (and Armenia's concurrent economic downturn the last decade or so) and the massive investment of said wealth in not only purchasing weapons but also building their own arms industry (with the help of Israel no less) have given it the stronger of the two armies.

That said, victory isn't a given either since Armenia has the highground. And Russia hits whoever starts fighting first.

Is Moscow likely to enforce a peace in this situation?

Anyone like polandballs?

It's because Russia has been enforcing the peace (by basically saying they have whoever has to defend first's back) that the fighting even stopped back in 94. But with Baku so horribly outmatching Armenia in money, men, and tech (not to mention a Europe who won't say a damn thing since they're the only alternative supply of gas), it was only a matter of time before Aliyev decided to push his advantage.

The Defense Minister for Georgia has been sacked, following an investigation (possibly more political than justified) of some of his underlings for corruption. In return, two other cabinet ministers have resigned in solidarity, and the Defense Minister's political party has withdrawn from the Parliament, leaving the governing coalition without a majority.

Looks like this might be the beginning of the end of the Georgian Dream coalition (which was always bound together more by opposition to Saakashvili and his political party rather than any shared positive vision for the country). This might in turn lead to greater political polarization in the country between pro-Westerners and those wanting to take a middle course between the West and Russia. In any case, this should be interesting to watch — if more political parties or cabinet ministers follow suit (which they haven't as of yet), early elections might need to be called.

Azerbaijan just shot down an Armenian helicopter, the first since the ceasefire....

I thought this article illustrates the situation quite nicely:

"Armenian politicians and experts are trying to find an answer to the question on whether a full-scale war is in the interests of Azerbaijan. For example, some insist on reciprocal steps – for example, to establish control over the territories that are called neutral today, and secondly it is proposed to start shooting down Azerbaijani military aircraft that are within the reach of the Armenian defense.

At the same time, there are calls not to give in to Azerbaijani provocations and prevent violations of the status quo that is favorable for the Armenian side. A full-scale war appears to suit Azerbaijan and Turkey as the international community is trying to force these two countries to lift the blockades of Armenia and the region as a whole. Turkey and Azerbaijan demand “concessions” from Armenia for doing that and it is not ruled out that in order to get such concessions they will attempt to provoke hostilities."

Azerbaijan is trying to provoke Armenia into war. As much as it is my opinion that Azerbaijan deserves punishment after this, perhaps it would be a better strategy for Armenia to turn the other cheek, as it were. At least for now.

How long do you think they can?

Protests have broken out in Armenia over a hike in electricity tariffs, which is especially damaging because of the devaluation of the Armenian currency over the last year. Yesterday, the government attempted to break up the protests by (non-lethal) force and arrests, but they have since reconstituted themselves.

Some people are calling this the start of a new Euro Maidan in Armenia. I would disagree, mainly because the coalition of interests is different (this is not the west vs. Russia, as much as it is an internal issue, and as such the government might find it easier to wait out or disperse the protestors), but it does bear watching as it develops.

I just hope a certain neighbor doesn't try anything stupid in the meanwhile. There is enough tumult in the world.

Hasn't Moscow said that they will enforce the peace? By attacking the attacker if necessary?

Yeah, but that threat hasn't stopped them before.

EDIT- Or rather, it hasn't stopped them from attempting small skirmishes before. It's just that the way Yerevan is now, they might overreact.

edited 24th Jun '15 9:43:15 PM by FFShinra

So for the last three days, Armenian and Azerbaijani forces have been (actively) fighting each other at several spots along their border.

Not much known as yet since both are playing the blame game, but given everyone's attention being focused elsewhere, this could turn into something worse.

Armenia is allied to Russia, correct? And is Azerbaijan allied to Turkey, Iran, or both? I can't quite remember...