Lost in Space
Starliner Crewed Flight Test
NASA: NASA’s Boeing Crew Flight Test Targets New Launch Date
Starliner CFT is pushed back to no earlier than May 17. The Atlas V rocket needs to roll back to the vertical integration facility at the Cape to replace a valve in the Centaur's liquid oxygen tank. (Wags may observe that for once the problem is with the rocket instead of with the capsule.)
During the countdown, oscillations were observed in the valve that were outside of tolerances. Sometimes a finicky valve can be persuaded to reseat itself, but the attempt to cycle it failed and the safety rules said they couldn't alter the propellant loading procedures while astronauts were on board.
There's not a whole lot else to report on the launch schedule until then... besides four Starlink missions and two Chinese ones, of course.
Edited by Fighteer on May 8th 2024 at 4:15:42 AM
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Lost in Space
Tim Dodd, the Everyday Astronaut just gave us a few new things to talk about, though. He went behind the scenes at Rocket Factory Augsburg and ISAR Aerospace to look at how European startups are entering the private space race.
They couldn't be taking more different approaches. RFA is using rolled stainless steel and off-the-shelf parts — specifically from the auto industry — to make its rockets as cheap and easy to build as possible, while ISAR is going with vertical integration, additive manufacturing, and composite structures to dial in efficiencies that can be optimized in mass production.
These new launch vehicles occupy a similar class to Firefly's Alpha: around 2 meters by 30 meters and with payloads in the 600 to 1300 kilogram range. They have more capacity than Rocket Lab's Electron and are meant to compete in the same market as Avio's Vega rockets.
Both companies are targeting their first launches this summer from Scotland and Norway, respectively.
As if that weren't enough, Tim gave us a second video in two days: How Polaris Dawn Will Do The First Commercial Spacewalk!
I haven't finished watching it yet, but it appears to summarize a lot of the information we've already learned about the new spacesuits and the procedures for the Polaris Dawn EVA.
Edit: To avoid the bends from nitrogen bubbles forming in the body, Dragon will slowly reduce its cabin pressure over the 52 hours prior to the EVA while increasing the oxygen ratio in the air to 30%. The suits themselves operate in pure oxygen at 5.1 PSI, higher than traditional ones. The goal is to eliminate the need for pre-breathing, something that ISS astronauts have to do for several hours within the airlock before going outside.
The reason why you want to get the pressure as low as possible is rigidity: it's like inhabiting a balloon. To address this, the suits have improved materials and joints, designed in house. All four astronauts will be in their suits for the EVA since the cabin will be fully evacuated - Dragon doesn't have an airlock. The EVA suits will replace the current Dragon IVA suits, since there isn't room to have multiple sets.
Edited by Fighteer on May 9th 2024 at 12:40:33 PM
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Professional Forum Ninja
Much of the northern half of the US should see it and there is a slight chance of an aurora being visible as far south as northern California and northern Alabama.
Edited by tclittle on May 9th 2024 at 1:07:21 PM
"We're all paper, we're all scissors, we're all fightin' with our mirrors, scared we'll never find somebody to love."
The Wanderer
Seems like every time there's a chance of an aurora being visible down here it's overcast or outright raining.
Eating a Vanilluxe will give you frostbite.
Redmess
No visibility in Europe, unfortunately. Even space weather favours the US, it seems.
Optimism is a duty.
Redmess
In other news:
I sure hope they had a team of toxicologists go over this brew before they put it on sale.
Honestly worth it just for this bottle:
Edited by Redmess on May 10th 2024 at 11:33:32 AM
Optimism is a duty.
Owl House / Infinity Train / Inside Job Fan
So I’m reading on NCR that there should be a solar storm heading for Earth. We should get a glimpse of some auroras.
![[nja]](https://static.tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pub/images/user_ninja_2074.png "[nja]"){kind=small}
ed
Edited by BigBadShadow25 on May 11th 2024 at 8:07:00 AM
The Owl House and Coyote Vs Acme are my Roman Empire.
Professional Forum Ninja
G5 EXTREME geomagnetic conditions have been observed in the ongoing storm.
Last G5 was the Halloween 2003 storm that knocked out power in Sweden and damaged transformers in South Africa.
Edited by tclittle on May 10th 2024 at 7:25:14 AM
"We're all paper, we're all scissors, we're all fightin' with our mirrors, scared we'll never find somebody to love."
Like reflections in the glass!
so does that me we should be expecting power failures in Canada and most of the US?
Lost in Space
Expecting is a strong word. I would say to prepare for the possibility of power, Internet, and GPS outages, but don’t go into your panic bunker just yet.
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
I actually wanted to be Resileaf
It would certainly not be a bad idea to shut down your electronics tonight to reduce the chance of damage as much as possible, but electric companies are better prepared for these kind of storms, and they know about it in advance. If they think things are looking bad, they'll shut down the grid themselves and prevent mass damage.
Owl House / Infinity Train / Inside Job Fan
When do we think we’ll see any effects?
The Owl House and Coyote Vs Acme are my Roman Empire.
I actually wanted to be Resileaf
It's already started in northerly regions.
Lost in Space
Anyone seen the auroras yet tonight? It's been rainy and overcast here, so I have zero chance... maybe later in the weekend things will clear up.
Starlink Profitability
SpaceNews: Starlink soars: SpaceX’s satellite internet surprises analysts with $6.6 billion revenue projection
We keep hearing different takes on how much money SpaceX's Starlink is making. Well, at least one company thinks it's a lot. Quilty Space, a market research and consulting firm, projects that Starlink will generate $6.6 billion in revenue for 2024, a more than fourfold increase over 2022.
To put that in perspective, the combined revenue of the two largest geostationary satellite operators, SES and Intelsat, which recently announced a merger, is around $4.1 billion.
SES and Intelsat's merger is widely believed to be prompted by the rise of Starlink, which is eating into their core subscriber base.
“The answer lies in their subscriber base,” explained Quilty. Viasat and Hughes, two dominant players in the consumer GEO satellite internet market for over 20 years, peaked at a combined 2.2 million subscribers in 2020. Starlink surpassed that number in just a few years, he said.
The financial outlook is equally impressive. Quilty Space estimates Starlink’s EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) to reach $3.8 billion in 2024, a significant leap from negative $128 million in 2022. "We expect Starlink to achieve positive free cash flow for the first time in 2024," said Quilty.
SpaceX can achieve this via unprecedented economies of scale, not just in launch but in manufacturing. It does as much in house as possible, vertically integrating the supply chain. Quilty estimates the cost of each V1 satellite at $200,000. The larger V2 satellites may cost around $800,000 while delivering at least four times the bandwidth. The V3 satellites that will launch on Starship may come in at double the mass for around $1.2 million each.
The cost of a full stack of 23 satellites on a Falcon 9 would therefore be around $18.4 million and estimates of internal launch costs for a reused Falcon 9 with a drone ship landing are comparable to this figure, so it is likely that the total marginal cost comes below $40M.
To keep up with the launch cadence, SpaceX has to build 50 to 100 of them per week. It's just not possible to compete with this price point or manufacturing rate in the boutique communications satellite industry.
SpaceX is widely expected to spin off Starlink into a public company in the next few years. It is likely to be a highly sought-after IPO.
Edited by Fighteer on May 10th 2024 at 12:45:32 PM
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
I'm sorry Tien, but I must go all out.
Oh, is that why my internet and electricity kinda flickered a bit about an hour ago?
I actually wanted to be Resileaf
I envy those who did get to see it. I live in a big city, so too much light polution.
I've seen pictures of Europe being under a pink umbrella of auroras. Very pretty stuff!
Edited by Resileafs on May 11th 2024 at 11:07:16 AM
Nope. Missed my chances over the last few nights...
What If The Earth Orbited TRAPPIST-1 Instead of the Sun? Then a photosynthetic oxygen atmosphere would not arise. At best, you'd have a photo-lytic oxygen atmosphere if the corona is powerful enough.
I thought I saw it, but it was just the house on fire.
Never trust anyone who uses "degenerate" as an insult.
Professional Forum Ninja
My area could see it, but by the time I had gotten out of work, there was too much cloud cover.
"We're all paper, we're all scissors, we're all fightin' with our mirrors, scared we'll never find somebody to love."
Lost in Space
It was the "all rain, all the time" weekend for me, so no auroras. [sigh]
SpaceX posted that all on-orbit Starlink satellites weathered the geomagnetic storm and are in good shape, including recently launched ones. The atmospheric density increased "2-3x" at 300 km and even more at higher altitudes.
Reminder that Starliner's crewed flight test is now targeting Friday, May 17. I'll post again on the day of.
Edited by Fighteer on May 13th 2024 at 8:58:51 AM
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Lost in Space
It's a slow week, so I'm postin' some news to keep us going.
Vulcan Concerns?
Ars Technica: Air Force is “growing concerned” about the pace of Vulcan rocket launches
It has been nearly four years since the US Air Force made its selections for companies to launch military payloads during the mid-2020s. The military chose United Launch Alliance, and its Vulcan rocket, to launch 60 percent of these missions; and it chose SpaceX, with the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy boosters, to launch 40 percent.
[...]
As part of the announcement, Roper disclosed the first two missions that would fly on Vulcan. The USSF-51 mission was scheduled for launch in the first quarter of 2022, and the USSF-106 mission was scheduled for launch in the third quarter of 2022.
[...]
The Vulcan rocket's development, of course, has since been delayed. It did not make its debut in 2020 or 2021 and only finally took flight in January of this year
[...]
The Washington Post reported on a letter from Air Force Assistant Secretary Frank Calvelli to the co-owners of United Launch Alliance, Boeing, and Lockheed Martin. In the letter sent on May 10, a copy of which was obtained by Ars, Calvelli urges the two large aerospace contractors to get moving on certification and production of the Vulcan rocket.
Related to this story, SpaceNews reported yesterday that ULA is considering flying a dummy payload on Vulcan's second certification flight since its manifested payload, the Peregrine lunar lander, continues to face delays.
Department of Defense regulations require that a launch vehicle fly two successful missions before it can be eligible to carry high-value national security payloads. United Launch Alliance meeting its contractual obligations under NSSL therefore depends on Vulcan making that second flight, and soon. It is a troubling position for ULA to be in considering that it is in talks to be sold, likely to Blue Origin.
Blue Origin, of course, is the supplier of the engines for Vulcan and therefore shares responsibility for much of the rocket's delayed debut. It has been suggested that Amazon Kuiper satellites might replace Peregrine as the next Vulcan payload... keeping it "in house", as it were, but it is unclear if such a change in the manifest could be accomplished in time.
The US government pays a hefty annual subsidy to ULA to guarantee access to space for these vital national security missions, and another round of NSSL contracts is coming up soon. It would be a massive embarrassment for the company to lose out to rivals because it's unable to meet the pacing requirements.
Starship Flight 4
Meanwhile, down at Starbase, Booster 11 and Ship 29 have been rolled out to the launch site ahead of Flight 4. Booster 11 was lifted onto the launch mount and Ship 29 is nearby, awaiting its turn. Pad testing for Booster 11 is expected today, likely ensuring that all of the repairs and upgrades to the ground infrastructure work as intended.
Ship 30 performed a static fire test at the suborbital launch pad last week, proving its readiness for Flight 5. This will be the last time that pad is used, as all future ship testing will be moved to the Massey's site where a test stand with a water-cooled flame trench is nearly complete. Presumably, the new setup will allow for long-duration firings, in contrast to the current concrete pad which can only last a few seconds under the power of the Raptor engines.
Once the suborbital pad is demolished, the second orbital launch tower will be erected in the vacated space. Foundation and piling work appear to be nearly complete. The tower sections are staged at the Port of Brownsville, awaiting transport. We haven't yet seen any signs of the launch mount. Considering that the KSC 39A launch mount appears to be getting scrapped, it's unclear if SpaceX is planning to redo that architecture.
Speaking of Massey's, Ship 31 was sent there for cryogenic proof testing, during which it experienced some kind of electrical anomaly, as violent arcing could be seen on camera views. Hopefully that can be buffed out. Ship 26, the old veteran with no flaps or heat shield, has also been prepared for transport to Massey's, indicating that it may be used for testing of the new launch stand and flame trench.
Elon Musk has indicated a potential date for Flight 4 in late May/early June. The FAA has reportedly not yet received SpaceX's final mishap report for Flight 3, a requirement to approve the next launch.
The pace of construction at the build site remains intense: the massive, enclosed Starfactory is nearly complete, and a new office building and parking garage are being erected.
Chang'e-6
China's Chang'e-6 lunar sample return mission entered lunar orbit on May 8, according to reporting by SpaceNews. It released a cubesat called ICUBE-Q to capture images as the orbiter prepares to deploy the lander. If successful, it will be the first spacecraft to land on, take samples, and return from the far side of the Moon.
The lunar far side is of interest to astronomers because of its substantially different composition compared to the near side. It looks almost completely different, too, mostly cratered instead of covered with massive, ancient lava flows.
A landing attempt is expected in early June, during which its targeted touchdown zone will be in daylight. The lander will spend 48 hours on its primary mission, after which it will launch an ascent vehicle to rendezvous with the orbiter.
Edited by Fighteer on May 14th 2024 at 11:54:56 AM
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Redmess
Damn, I missed the whole thing... But I live in a city, so I probably wouldn't have seen it anyway.
Optimism is a duty.
Lost in Space
News time!
Starliner Crewed Flight Test
Ars Technica: Boeing is troubleshooting a small helium leak on the Starliner spacecraft
Starliner's crewed flight test is now officially delayed until May 21. After a scrub last week, the Atlas V rocket that will carry it into orbit was rolled back to its integration facility to replace a valve in the Centaur III upper stage. Importantly, this isn't Boeing's fault or responsibility.
However, Boeing officials revealed this week that they will take some additional time to analyze a helium leak on Starliner itself. This was apparently known about in advance but not deemed safety-critical, since the helium system is used to pressurize the vehicle's hypergolic maneuvering thrusters and has a substantial margin built in. However, if it had to power a launch escape maneuver, the helium pressure might become a serious issue.
The extra time will be used to pressurize the capsule's maneuvering system to ensure that it remains stable.
Europa Clipper
NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory posted on X yesterday with a farewell to Europa Clipper as the spacecraft has finished being packaged for shipping to Kennedy Space Center for its scheduled October launch on a Falcon Heavy rocket.
I didn't know this until just now, but JPL had, since April 22, been running a live feed from the clean room as Clipper was prepared for departure.
As we've discussed several times, Europa Clipper was originally booked on SLS at the insistence of Congress, which wanted to force flagship missions to ride on its flagship rocket. As SLS's development timeline and anticipated launch cadence kept slipping, it became apparent that the only reasonable option was Falcon Heavy, even though it would require a slightly longer trajectory.
Starship Flight 4
Yesterday, SpaceX fully stacked Ship 29 atop Booster 11, a major milestone ahead of the next test flight. As I type this, a wet dress rehearsal is being conducted. Both events are/were streamed by NASA Spaceflight.
The ship will need to be destacked at least one more time in order to load and arm the flight termination systems, and we continue to wait for word about the status of the mishap report for Flight 3, which must be submitted and approved before a new launch license may be granted.
Hubble Rescue in Jeopardy
NPR: Private mission to save the Hubble Space Telescope raises concerns, NASA emails show
We've discussed this previously as well. Jared Isaacman, billionaire owner of Shift4, private fighter pilot, and private astronaut, has made a public offer to use a future Polaris program mission to reboost and potentially service the Hubble Space Telescope. This would be conducted at no direct cost to the government and would build on the EVA expertise that SpaceX is pioneering with the upcoming Polaris Dawn mission.
As a reminder, Hubble is 33 years old and its orbit is continually decaying due to atmospheric drag. Originally deployed in a 640 km orbit, it is now down to ~512 km. Without intervention, it is expected to deorbit and burn up in the 2030s. It has also lost three of the six gyroscopes that control its orientation and has suffered power and computer issues in recent years. It was launched, and serviced several times, by the Space Shuttle, but that vehicle is retired and there is no other operational spacecraft capable of doing the work.
NASA commissioned a fast-track study in 2022 to look at the feasibility of the idea of using Dragon to service Hubble. FOIA'ed emails from NASA and comments from Isaacman (SpaceX did not comment for the article) show that internal politics may be getting in the way. There may also be an official announcement "this week".
In a best-case scenario, a successful private mission could improve Hubble's ability to point at celestial objects and, by boosting its orbit, extend its life by years.
In a worst-case scenario, however, an accident could leave the multibillion-dollar telescope broken — or, even more tragically, tethered to the dead bodies of the astronauts sent to repair it.
In a February interview, [Isaacman] suggested that some NASA insiders wanted a monopoly on the prestigious experience of getting to handle Hubble.
"Up until now, there's only been, you know, one group that would ever touch Hubble. And I think that they have an opinion of whether — of who should or shouldn't be allowed to touch it," Isaacman said. "I think a lot would say, 'I'd rather it burn up' than, you know, go down a slippery slope of, you know, the space community growing. So I think that's a factor now, unfortunately."
There are certainly risks involved with such a mission, but it seems as if some people in the administration would rather Hubble be lost than that a privately operated company get the credit for saving it.
A successful conclusion to the Polaris Dawn mission might add substantial weight to Isaacman's offer, as it will mean that he and SpaceX have proven that they can safely conduct an EVA from Dragon.
ULA fined for Vulcan delays
Bloomberg: Lockheed-Boeing Alliance Hit With US Fine for Launch Delays
The article above is paywalled, but Eric Berger posted on X that United Launch Alliance is being charged "postponement fees" under the National Security Space Launch contract over delays to certification of the Vulcan rocket. This is a followup to the previous article that I posted about.
Edited by Fighteer on May 16th 2024 at 1:39:54 PM
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
A procrastination in of itself
I’m genuinely impressed that you guys fine private companies who fail to deliver government contracts on time. Over here we’re legally barred from considering past performance when awarding new contracts.
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
NASA's coverage of the Starliner Crewed Flight Test has begun. Live updates to follow in this post.
Edit: convenient page-topper!
Final update: A scrub has been called due to a misbehaving gaseous oxygen relief valve on the Centaur upper stage. They will evaluate the issue and give us a new launch date.
Edited by Fighteer on May 7th 2024 at 9:09:46 AM
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"